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Modeling user adoption of advanced traveler information systems: dynamic evolution and stationary equilibrium

  • Yang, Hai
  • Meng, Qiang
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This paper models the growth rate and the saturation market penetration level for advanced traveler information system (ATIS) products/services with heterogeneous drivers. The price of using and the benefit gained from ATIS services are considered two key factors in explaining the growth of adoption of ATIS products. The information benefit is measured as the travel time saving between equipped and unequipped drivers and evaluated by a mixed stochastic and deterministic network equilibrium model. A modified logistic type growth model is adopted to describe the cumulative adoption of ATIS products over years. The final stationary equilibrium level of ATIS market penetration is so determined that the value of the information provided will decline to the point at which no new users will find it advantageous to purchase that service. The endogenous growth and stationary equilibrium model of market penetration of ATIS services is useful for forecasting the growth process and the impacts on the system performance of ATIS.

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Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice.

Volume (Year): 35 (2001)
Issue (Month): 10 (December)
Pages: 895-912

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Handle: RePEc:eee:transa:v:35:y:2001:i:10:p:895-912
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  1. Hai Yang, 1999. "Evaluating the benefits of a combined route guidance and road pricing system in a traffic network with recurrent congestion," Transportation, Springer, vol. 26(3), pages 299-322, August.
  2. Yang, Hai & Kitamura, Ryuichi & Jovanis, Paul P. & Vaughn, Kenneth M. & Abdel-aty, Mohammed A. & Reddy, Prasuna Dvg, 1993. "Exploration Of Driver Route Choice With Advanced Traveler Information Using Neural Network Concepts," Institute of Transportation Studies, Research Reports, Working Papers, Proceedings qt53d2t6df, Institute of Transportation Studies, UC Berkeley.
  3. Parker, Philip M., 1994. "Aggregate diffusion forecasting models in marketing: A critical review," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 10(2), pages 353-380, September.
  4. Leurent, F., 1998. "Sensitivity and error analysis of the dual criteria traffic assignment model," Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, Elsevier, vol. 32(3), pages 189-204, April.
  5. Yang, Hai, 1998. "Multiple equilibrium behaviors and advanced traveler information systems with endogenous market penetration," Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, Elsevier, vol. 32(3), pages 205-218, April.
  6. Leurent, Fabien, 1993. "Cost versus time equilibrium over a network," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 71(2), pages 205-221, December.
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