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Modeling travel time reliability of freeways using risk assessment techniques

Author

Listed:
  • Tu, Huizhao
  • Li, Hao
  • van Lint, Hans
  • van Zuylen, Henk

Abstract

Travel time reliability is considered to be one of the key indicators for the performance of transport systems and is measured in various ways. This paper synthesizes both reliability concepts: traffic breakdown, the indicator of the instability of travel times, is treated as the risk, whereas travel time variability, the indicator of the uncertainty of travel times, is considered as the consequence of this risk. An analytical formula, using risk assessment technique, explicitly expresses the cost of travel time unreliability as the sum of the products of the consequences (i.e. variability) and the corresponding probabilities of breakdown. It provides a novel measure of travel time reliability and is applicable in network performance evaluations. An empirical example based on a large dataset of freeway traffic flow data from loop detectors shows that the developed travel time reliability measure is both intuitively logical and consistent.

Suggested Citation

  • Tu, Huizhao & Li, Hao & van Lint, Hans & van Zuylen, Henk, 2012. "Modeling travel time reliability of freeways using risk assessment techniques," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 46(10), pages 1528-1540.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:transa:v:46:y:2012:i:10:p:1528-1540
    DOI: 10.1016/j.tra.2012.07.009
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Clark, Stephen & Watling, David, 2005. "Modelling network travel time reliability under stochastic demand," Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, Elsevier, vol. 39(2), pages 119-140, February.
    2. van Lint, J.W.C. & van Zuylen, Henk J. & Tu, H., 2008. "Travel time unreliability on freeways: Why measures based on variance tell only half the story," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 42(1), pages 258-277, January.
    3. Matthias Sweet & Mengke Chen, 2011. "Does regional travel time unreliability influence mode choice?," Transportation, Springer, vol. 38(4), pages 625-642, July.
    4. Fosgerau, Mogens & Karlström, Anders, 2010. "The value of reliability," Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, Elsevier, vol. 44(1), pages 38-49, January.
    5. Brownstone, David & Small, Kenneth A., 2005. "Valuing time and reliability: assessing the evidence from road pricing demonstrations," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 39(4), pages 279-293, May.
    6. Daganzo, C. F. & Cassidy, M. J. & Bertini, R. L., 1999. "Possible explanations of phase transitions in highway traffic," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 33(5), pages 365-379, June.
    7. Bell, Michael G. H. & Cassir, Chris, 2002. "Risk-averse user equilibrium traffic assignment: an application of game theory," Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, Elsevier, vol. 36(8), pages 671-681, September.
    8. repec:eee:reensy:v:96:y:2011:i:8:p:892-899 is not listed on IDEAS
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    Cited by:

    1. repec:eee:transa:v:103:y:2017:i:c:p:250-263 is not listed on IDEAS
    2. Li, Hao & Tu, Huizhao & Hensher, David A., 2016. "Integrating the mean–variance and scheduling approaches to allow for schedule delay and trip time variability under uncertainty," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 89(C), pages 151-163.
    3. repec:eee:reensy:v:152:y:2016:i:c:p:151-165 is not listed on IDEAS
    4. Krier, Betty & Liu, Chia-Mei & McNamara, Brian & Sharpe, Jerrod, 2014. "Individual freight effects, capacity utilization, and Amtrak service quality," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 64(C), pages 163-175.

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