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On the use of "average delay" as a measure of train reliability

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  • Börjesson, Maria
  • Eliasson, Jonas

Abstract

We investigate how passengers on long-distance trains value unexpected delays relative to scheduled travel time and travel cost. For scheduled services with high reliability and long headways, the value of delays is most commonly assumed to be proportional to the average delay. By exploring how the valuation of train delays depends on delay risk and delay length, using three different stated choice data sets, we find that the "average delay" approach does not hold: the disutility increases slower than linearly in the delay risk. This means that using the average delay as a performance indicator, a guide for operations planning or for investment appraisal will underestimate the value of small risks of long delays relative to large risks for short delays. It also means that estimated valuations of "average delay" will depend on the delay risk level: valuations will be higher the lower the risk levels in the study are.

Suggested Citation

  • Börjesson, Maria & Eliasson, Jonas, 2011. "On the use of "average delay" as a measure of train reliability," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 45(3), pages 171-184, March.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:transa:v:45:y:2011:i:3:p:171-184
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Bergström, Anna & Krüger, Niclas A., 2013. "Modeling passenger train delay distributions: evidence and implications," Working papers in Transport Economics 2013:3, CTS - Centre for Transport Studies Stockholm (KTH and VTI).
    2. Paul Koster & Eric Pels & Erik Verhoef, 2016. "The User Costs of Air Travel Delay Variability," Transportation Science, INFORMS, vol. 50(1), pages 120-131, February.
    3. Agostino, Deborah & Steenhuisen, Bauke & Arnaboldi, Michela & de Bruijn, Hans, 2014. "PMS development in local public transport: Comparing Milan and Amsterdam," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 33(C), pages 26-32.
    4. Fosgerau, Mogens & Börjesson, Maria, 2015. "Manipulating a stated choice experiment," Journal of choice modelling, Elsevier, vol. 16(C), pages 43-49.
    5. repec:kap:transp:v:44:y:2017:i:5:d:10.1007_s11116-016-9701-y is not listed on IDEAS
    6. Jenelius, Erik & Mattsson, Lars-Göran & Levinson, David, 2011. "Traveler delay costs and value of time with trip chains, flexible activity scheduling and information," Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, Elsevier, vol. 45(5), pages 789-807, June.
    7. Jenelius, Erik, 2012. "The value of travel time variability with trip chains, flexible scheduling and correlated travel times," Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, Elsevier, vol. 46(6), pages 762-780.

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