Modeling Passenger Train Delay Distributions - Evidence and Implications
This paper addresses the lack of reliability within the Swedish rail network by identifying passenger train delay distributions. Arrival delays are analyzed in detail using data provided by the Swedish Transport Administration, covering all train departures and arrivals during 2008 and 2009. The paper identifies vulnerabilities by size, space and time in the network. Our results show that the delay distribution seems to be plagued by low probability high impact events. A major share of all delay time is associated with the tail of the delay distribution, indicating that extreme delays cannot be neglected when prioritizing between measures improving rail infrastructure. Delays are not only concentrated in size, but also concentrated in space and time and seem to follow a precise power law with respect to days and an exponential distribution with regard to stations. Moreover, we also examine the link between capacity usage and expected delay over different time scales.
|Date of creation:||04 Nov 2013|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: Dept of Economics, Karlstad University, Universitetsgatan 1, SE 651 88 Karlstad, Sweden|
Phone: 054 - 700 13 56
Fax: 054 - 700 14 97
Web page: http://www.kau.se/node/12323
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- Carrion, Carlos & Levinson, David, 2012.
"Value of travel time reliability: A review of current evidence,"
Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice,
Elsevier, vol. 46(4), pages 720-741.
- Carlos Carrion & David Levinson, 2010. "Value of Travel Time Reliability: A review of current evidence," Working Papers 000085, University of Minnesota: Nexus Research Group.
- Berdica, Katja, 2002. "An introduction to road vulnerability: what has been done, is done and should be done," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 9(2), pages 117-127, April.
- Paulley, Neil & Balcombe, Richard & Mackett, Roger & Titheridge, Helena & Preston, John & Wardman, Mark & Shires, Jeremy & White, Peter, 2006. "The demand for public transport: The effects of fares, quality of service, income and car ownership," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 13(4), pages 295-306, July.
- Börjesson, Maria & Eliasson, Jonas, 2011. "On the use of "average delay" as a measure of train reliability," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 45(3), pages 171-184, March.
- Stefanie Peer & Carl Koopmans & Erik T. Verhoef, 2010. "Predicting Travel Time Variability for Cost-Benefit Analysis," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 10-071/3, Tinbergen Institute.
- Briggs, Keith & Beck, Christian, 2007. "Modelling train delays with q-exponential functions," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 378(2), pages 498-504. Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)
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