Modeling Passenger Train Delay Distributions - Evidence and Implications
This paper addresses the lack of reliability within the Swedish rail network by identifying passenger train delay distributions. Arrival delays are analyzed in detail using data provided by the Swedish Transport Administration, covering all train departures and arrivals during 2008 and 2009. The paper identifies vulnerabilities by size, space and time in the network. Our results show that the delay distribution seems to be plagued by low probability high impact events. A major share of all delay time is associated with the tail of the delay distribution, indicating that extreme delays cannot be neglected when prioritizing between measures improving rail infrastructure. Delays are not only concentrated in size, but also concentrated in space and time and seem to follow a precise power law with respect to days and an exponential distribution with regard to stations. Moreover, we also examine the link between capacity usage and expected delay over different time scales.
|Date of creation:||04 Nov 2013|
|Date of revision:|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: |
Phone: 054 - 700 13 56
Fax: 054 - 700 14 97
Web page: http://www.kau.se/node/12323
More information through EDIRC
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Carlos Carrion & David Levinson, 2010.
"Value of Travel Time Reliability: A review of current evidence,"
000085, University of Minnesota: Nexus Research Group.
- Carrion, Carlos & Levinson, David, 2012. "Value of travel time reliability: A review of current evidence," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 46(4), pages 720-741.
- Berdica, Katja, 2002. "An introduction to road vulnerability: what has been done, is done and should be done," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 9(2), pages 117-127, April.
- Börjesson, Maria & Eliasson, Jonas, 2011. "On the use of "average delay" as a measure of train reliability," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 45(3), pages 171-184, March.
- Briggs, Keith & Beck, Christian, 2007. "Modelling train delays with q-exponential functions," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 378(2), pages 498-504.
- Paulley, Neil & Balcombe, Richard & Mackett, Roger & Titheridge, Helena & Preston, John & Wardman, Mark & Shires, Jeremy & White, Peter, 2006. "The demand for public transport: The effects of fares, quality of service, income and car ownership," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 13(4), pages 295-306, July.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:hhs:kaunek:0010. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Mikael Svensson)The email address of this maintainer does not seem to be valid anymore. Please ask Mikael Svensson to update the entry or send us the correct address
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.