Coping with unreliable transportation when collecting children: Examining parents' behavior with cumulative prospect theory
This paper explores the usefulness of cumulative prospect theory (CPT), an inductive-descriptive model for how people make choices with a priori unknown consequences, in the context of travelers' coping with unreliable transport networks through the estimation of coefficients characterizing CPT's value and weighting functions. Attention is directed toward employed parents' trips to collect their child(ren) from the nursery at the end of workday because of parents' strong sensitivity to the possibility of late arrivals there. Analysis of a stated response experiment about parents' coping with unreliable transport networks en route to the nursery provides further evidence for a series of violations of the axioms underlying expected utility theory (EUT) - a deductive-normative model of decision-making under uncertainty that is widely used in transportation studies. The results also show that linkages exist between respondents' everyday life and their responses in the stated response experiment and, by implication, the shape of CPT's value function. It is therefore concluded that analytical frameworks for describing activity-travel behavior in situations of unreliability, variability and uncertainty should be both psychologically and socially realistic.
Volume (Year): 43 (2009)
Issue (Month): 5 (June)
|Contact details of provider:|| Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/wps/find/journaldescription.cws_home/547/description#description|
|Order Information:|| Postal: http://www.elsevier.com/wps/find/supportfaq.cws_home/regional|
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Martin Dijst & Sendy Farag & Tim Schwanen, 2008. "A comparative study of attitude theory and other theoretical models for understanding travel behaviour," Environment and Planning A, Pion Ltd, London, vol. 40(4), pages 831-847, April.
- Gordon L Clark & John C Marshall, 2002. "Decisionmaking models of the real world and expertise," Environment and Planning A, Pion Ltd, London, vol. 34(7), pages 1139-1146, July.
- Tversky, Amos & Kahneman, Daniel, 1992. " Advances in Prospect Theory: Cumulative Representation of Uncertainty," Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, Springer, vol. 5(4), pages 297-323, October.
- Ajzen, Icek, 1991. "The theory of planned behavior," Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, Elsevier, vol. 50(2), pages 179-211, December.
- Camerer, Colin F & Ho, Teck-Hua, 1994. "Violations of the Betweenness Axiom and Nonlinearity in Probability," Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, Springer, vol. 8(2), pages 167-96, March.
- Kikuchi, Shinya & Chakroborty, Partha, 2006. "Place of possibility theory in transportation analysis," Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, Elsevier, vol. 40(8), pages 595-615, September.
- Amos Tversky & Daniel Kahneman, 1979.
"Prospect Theory: An Analysis of Decision under Risk,"
Levine's Working Paper Archive
7656, David K. Levine.
- Kahneman, Daniel & Tversky, Amos, 1979. "Prospect Theory: An Analysis of Decision under Risk," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 47(2), pages 263-91, March.
- Mahmassani, Hani S. & Chang, Gang-Len, 1986. "Experiments with departure time choice dynamics of urban commuters," Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, Elsevier, vol. 20(4), pages 297-320, August.
- Jou, Rong-Chang & Kitamura, Ryuichi & Weng, Mei-Chuan & Chen, Chih-Cheng, 2008. "Dynamic commuter departure time choice under uncertainty," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 42(5), pages 774-783, June.
- George Wu & Richard Gonzalez, 1996. "Curvature of the Probability Weighting Function," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 42(12), pages 1676-1690, December.
- Tversky, Amos & Kahneman, Daniel, 1986. "Rational Choice and the Framing of Decisions," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 59(4), pages S251-78, October.
- de Palma, André & Picard, Nathalie, 2005. "Route choice decision under travel time uncertainty," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 39(4), pages 295-324, May.
- Tim Schwanen, 2008. "Managing uncertain arrival times through sociomaterial associations," Environment and Planning B: Planning and Design, Pion Ltd, London, vol. 35(6), pages 997-1011, November.
- Daniel Kahneman, 2003. "Maps of Bounded Rationality: Psychology for Behavioral Economics," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 93(5), pages 1449-1475, December.
- Colin Camerer, 1998. "Bounded Rationality in Individual Decision Making," Experimental Economics, Springer, vol. 1(2), pages 163-183, September.
- Moshe Levy & Haim Levy, 2002. "Prospect Theory: Much Ado About Nothing?," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 48(10), pages 1334-1349, October.
- LINDA McDOWELL & KEVIN WARD & COLETTE FAGAN & DIANE PERRONS & KATH RAY, 2006. "Connecting Time and Space: The Significance of Transformations in Women's Work in the City," International Journal of Urban and Regional Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 30(1), pages 141-158, 03.
- Robert B. Noland & John W. Polak, 2002. "Travel time variability: A review of theoretical and empirical issues," Transport Reviews, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 22(1), pages 39-54, January.
- Drazen Prelec, 1998. "The Probability Weighting Function," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 66(3), pages 497-528, May.
- Kendra Strauss, 2009. "Cognition, context, and multimethod approaches to economic decision making," Environment and Planning A, Pion Ltd, London, vol. 41(2), pages 302-317, February.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:transa:v:43:y:2009:i:5:p:511-525. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.