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Coping with unreliable transportation when collecting children: Examining parents' behavior with cumulative prospect theory

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  • Schwanen, Tim
  • Ettema, Dick

Abstract

This paper explores the usefulness of cumulative prospect theory (CPT), an inductive-descriptive model for how people make choices with a priori unknown consequences, in the context of travelers' coping with unreliable transport networks through the estimation of coefficients characterizing CPT's value and weighting functions. Attention is directed toward employed parents' trips to collect their child(ren) from the nursery at the end of workday because of parents' strong sensitivity to the possibility of late arrivals there. Analysis of a stated response experiment about parents' coping with unreliable transport networks en route to the nursery provides further evidence for a series of violations of the axioms underlying expected utility theory (EUT) - a deductive-normative model of decision-making under uncertainty that is widely used in transportation studies. The results also show that linkages exist between respondents' everyday life and their responses in the stated response experiment and, by implication, the shape of CPT's value function. It is therefore concluded that analytical frameworks for describing activity-travel behavior in situations of unreliability, variability and uncertainty should be both psychologically and socially realistic.

Suggested Citation

  • Schwanen, Tim & Ettema, Dick, 2009. "Coping with unreliable transportation when collecting children: Examining parents' behavior with cumulative prospect theory," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 43(5), pages 511-525, June.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:transa:v:43:y:2009:i:5:p:511-525
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    Cited by:

    1. Carrion, Carlos & Levinson, David, 2012. "Value of travel time reliability: A review of current evidence," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 46(4), pages 720-741.
    2. Ermagun, Alireza & Levinson, David, 2016. "Intra-household bargaining for school trip accompaniment of children: A group decision approach," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 94(C), pages 222-234.
    3. Koster, Paul R. & Koster, Hans R.A., 2015. "Commuters’ preferences for fast and reliable travel: A semi-parametric estimation approach," Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, Elsevier, vol. 81(P1), pages 289-301.
    4. Stathopoulos, Amanda & Hess, Stephane, 2012. "Revisiting reference point formation, gains–losses asymmetry and non-linear sensitivities with an emphasis on attribute specific treatment," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 46(10), pages 1673-1689.
    5. Caspar G. Chorus & Benedict G. C. Dellaert, 2012. "Travel Choice Inertia: The Joint Role of Risk Aversion and Learning," Journal of Transport Economics and Policy, University of Bath, vol. 46(1), pages 139-155, January.
    6. repec:eee:transe:v:112:y:2018:i:c:p:12-18 is not listed on IDEAS
    7. Ettema, Dick & Gärling, Tommy & Olsson, Lars E. & Friman, Margareta, 2010. "Out-of-home activities, daily travel, and subjective well-being," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 44(9), pages 723-732, November.
    8. Paul Koster & Hans Koster, 2013. "Analysing Heterogeneity in the Value of Travel Time and Reliability: A Semiparametric Estimation Approach," ERSA conference papers ersa13p1032, European Regional Science Association.
    9. Ben-Elia, Eran & Shiftan, Yoram, 2010. "Which road do I take? A learning-based model of route-choice behavior with real-time information," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 44(4), pages 249-264, May.
    10. de Moraes Ramos, Giselle & Daamen, Winnie & Hoogendoorn, Serge, 2013. "Modelling travellers' heterogeneous route choice behaviour as prospect maximizers," Journal of choice modelling, Elsevier, vol. 6(C), pages 17-33.
    11. Jou, Rong-Chang & Chen, Ke-Hong, 2013. "An application of cumulative prospect theory to freeway drivers’ route choice behaviours," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 49(C), pages 123-131.
    12. Ceder, Avishai & Chowdhury, Subeh & Taghipouran, Nima & Olsen, Jared, 2013. "Modelling public-transport users’ behaviour at connection point," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 27(C), pages 112-122.
    13. Xu, Hongli & Lou, Yingyan & Yin, Yafeng & Zhou, Jing, 2011. "A prospect-based user equilibrium model with endogenous reference points and its application in congestion pricing," Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, Elsevier, vol. 45(2), pages 311-328, February.
    14. Hensher, David A. & Greene, William H. & Li, Zheng, 2011. "Embedding risk attitude and decision weights in non-linear logit to accommodate time variability in the value of expected travel time savings," Transportation Research Part B: Methodological, Elsevier, vol. 45(7), pages 954-972, August.
    15. Santos, Georgina & Behrendt, Hannah & Teytelboym, Alexander, 2010. "Part II: Policy instruments for sustainable road transport," Research in Transportation Economics, Elsevier, vol. 28(1), pages 46-91.

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