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Winning the Oil Lottery: The Impact of Natural Resource Extraction on Growth

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  • Tiago Cavalcanti
  • Daniel Da Mata
  • Frederik Toscani

Abstract

This paper provides evidence on the causal impact of oil discoveries on local development. Novel data on the drilling of 20,000 oil wells in Brazil allows us to exploit a quasi-experiment: municipalities where oil was discovered constitute the treatment group while municipalities with drilling but no discovery are the control group. The results show that oil discoveries significantly increase per capita GDP and urbanization. We find positive spillovers to non-oil sectors, specifically an increase in services GDP which stems from higher labor productivity. The results are consistent with greater local demand for non-tradable services driven by highly paid oil workers.

Suggested Citation

  • Tiago Cavalcanti & Daniel Da Mata & Frederik Toscani, 2014. "Winning the Oil Lottery: The Impact of Natural Resource Extraction on Growth," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 1455, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
  • Handle: RePEc:cam:camdae:1455
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    Cited by:

    1. Fleming, David A. & Measham, Thomas G. & Paredes, Dusan, 2015. "Understanding the resource curse (or blessing) across national and regional scales: Theory, empirical challenges and an application," Australian Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society, vol. 59(4), October.
    2. Jedwab, Remi & Christiaensen, Luc & Gindelsky, Marina, 2017. "Demography, urbanization and development: Rural push, urban pull and…urban push?," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 98(C), pages 6-16.
    3. Arezki, Rabah & van der Ploeg, Frederick & Toscani, Frederik, 2019. "The shifting natural wealth of nations: The role of market orientation," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 138(C), pages 228-245.
    4. Arezki, Rabah & Toscani, Frederik & van der Ploeg, Frederick, 2016. "Shifting Frontiers in Global Resource Wealth: The Role of Policies and Institutions," CEPR Discussion Papers 11553, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    5. James Cust & Torfinn Harding & Pierre-Louis Vezina, 2017. "Dutch Disease Resistance: Evidence from Indonesian Firms," OxCarre Working Papers 192, Oxford Centre for the Analysis of Resource Rich Economies, University of Oxford.
    6. Jedwab, Remi & Vollrath, Dietrich, 2015. "Urbanization without growth in historical perspective," Explorations in Economic History, Elsevier, vol. 58(C), pages 1-21.
    7. Gerhard Toews & Pierre-Louis Vezina, 2017. "Resource discoveries and FDI bonanzas; An illustration from Mozambique," OxCarre Working Papers 199, Oxford Centre for the Analysis of Resource Rich Economies, University of Oxford.
    8. repec:eee:transa:v:117:y:2018:i:c:p:292-301 is not listed on IDEAS
    9. Gerhard Toews & Pierre-Louis Vezina, 2016. "Resource Discoveries and FDI Bonanzas," OxCarre Working Papers 177, Oxford Centre for the Analysis of Resource Rich Economies, University of Oxford.
    10. Christa N. Brunnschweiler & Steven Poelhekke, 2019. "Pushing One's Luck: Petroleum ownership and discoveries," University of East Anglia School of Economics Working Paper Series 2019-01, School of Economics, University of East Anglia, Norwich, UK..

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Petroleum Industry; Economic Growth; Urbanization;

    JEL classification:

    • O13 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Agriculture; Natural Resources; Environment; Other Primary Products
    • O40 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - General

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