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Determinants of City Growth in Brazil

Author

Listed:
  • Daniel da Mata
  • Uwe Deichmann
  • J. Vernon Henderson
  • Somik V. Lall
  • Hyoung G. Wang

Abstract

TIn this paper, we examine the determinants of Brazilian city growth between 1970 and 2000. We consider a model of a city, which combines aspects of standard urban economics and the new economic geography literatures. For the empirical analysis, we constructed a dataset of 123 Brazilian agglomerations, and estimate aspects of the demand and supply side as well as a reduced form specification that describes city sizes and their growth. Our main findings are that increases in rural population supply, improvements in inter-regional transport connectivity and education attainment of the labor force have strong impacts on city growth. We also find that local crime and violence, measured by homicide rates impinge on growth. In contrast, a higher share of private sector industrial capital in the local economy stimulates growth. Using the residuals from the growth estimation, we also find that cities who better administer local land use and zoning laws have higher growth. Finally, our policy simulations show that diverting transport investments from large cities towards secondary cities do not provide significant gains in terms of national urban performance. O presente trabalho examina os determinantes do crescimento das cidades brasileiras entre 1970 e 2000. Nós consideramos um modelo de cidades que combina tanto aspectos da tradicional economia urbana quanto da literatura da nova geografia econômica. Para a análise empírica, nós construímos um banco de dados para 123 aglomerações urbanas no Brasil, e estimamos especificações de demanda e oferta, assim como uma forma reduzida que descreve o tamanho das cidades e seu crescimento. Os principais resultados do estudo são que acréscimos na oferta da população rural, melhorias na conexão de transporte inter-regional e aumento na educação da força de trabalho têm impactos positivos no crescimento das cidades. Averiguou-se também que crime e violência, mensurados pela taxa de mortalidade, são negativos ao crescimento das cidades. Por outro lado, uma maior parcela do setor privado no capital industrial na economia local estimula tal crescimento. Utilizando os resíduos das estimativas das equações de crescimento, nós verificamos que cidades melhores administradas em termos de regulação fundiária e leis de zoneamento apresentam um crescimento mais acentuado. Por fim, nossas estimativas de políticas públicas mostram que investimentos em transporte de cidades grandes em direção a cidades médias não fornecem ganhos significativos para a performance urbana nacional.

Suggested Citation

  • Daniel da Mata & Uwe Deichmann & J. Vernon Henderson & Somik V. Lall & Hyoung G. Wang, 2015. "Determinants of City Growth in Brazil," Discussion Papers 0155, Instituto de Pesquisa Econômica Aplicada - IPEA.
  • Handle: RePEc:ipe:ipetds:0155
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Au, Chun-Chung & Henderson, J. Vernon, 2006. "How migration restrictions limit agglomeration and productivity in China," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 80(2), pages 350-388, August.
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    4. Duranton, Gilles & Puga, Diego, 2004. "Micro-foundations of urban agglomeration economies," Handbook of Regional and Urban Economics,in: J. V. Henderson & J. F. Thisse (ed.), Handbook of Regional and Urban Economics, edition 1, volume 4, chapter 48, pages 2063-2117 Elsevier.
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    9. Daniel da Mata & Uwe Deichmann & J. Vernon Henderson & Somik V. Lall & Hyoung G. Wang, 2005. "Examining the Growth Patterns of Brazilian Cities," Discussion Papers 1113, Instituto de Pesquisa Econômica Aplicada - IPEA.
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    JEL classification:

    • O - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth
    • R - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics

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