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Determinants of city growth in Brazil

  • da Mata, D.
  • Deichmann, U.
  • Henderson, J.V.
  • Lall, S.V.
  • Wang, H.G.

TIn this paper, we examine the determinants of Brazilian city growth between 1970 and 2000. We consider a model of a city, which combines aspects of standard urban economics and the new economic geography literatures. For the empirical analysis, we constructed a dataset of 123 Brazilian agglomerations, and estimate aspects of the demand and supply side as well as a reduced form specification that describes city sizes and their growth. Our main findings are that increases in rural population supply, improvements in inter-regional transport connectivity and education attainment of the labor force have strong impacts on city growth. We also find that local crime and violence, measured by homicide rates impinge on growth. In contrast, a higher share of private sector industrial capital in the local economy stimulates growth. Using the residuals from the growth estimation, we also find that cities who better administer local land use and zoning laws have higher growth. Finally, our policy simulations show that diverting transport investments from large cities towards secondary cities do not provide significant gains in terms of national urban performance. O presente trabalho examina os determinantes do crescimento das cidades brasileiras entre 1970 e 2000. Nós consideramos um modelo de cidades que combina tanto aspectos da tradicional economia urbana quanto da literatura da nova geografia econômica. Para a análise empírica, nós construímos um banco de dados para 123 aglomerações urbanas no Brasil, e estimamos especificações de demanda e oferta, assim como uma forma reduzida que descreve o tamanho das cidades e seu crescimento. Os principais resultados do estudo são que acréscimos na oferta da população rural, melhorias na conexão de transporte inter-regional e aumento na educação da força de trabalho têm impactos positivos no crescimento das cidades. Averiguou-se também que crime e violência, mensurados pela taxa de mortalidade, são negativos ao crescimento das cidades.

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Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Journal of Urban Economics.

Volume (Year): 62 (2007)
Issue (Month): 2 (September)
Pages: 252-272

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Handle: RePEc:eee:juecon:v:62:y:2007:i:2:p:252-272
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  1. Mauro Borges Lemos & Sueli Moro & Elenice Biazi & Marco Aurélio Crocco, 2001. "A Dinâmica Urbana das Regiões Metropolitanas Brasileiras," Anais do XXIX Encontro Nacional de Economia [Proceedings of the 29th Brazilian Economics Meeting] 073, ANPEC - Associação Nacional dos Centros de Pósgraduação em Economia [Brazilian Association of Graduate Programs in Economics].
  2. Edward L. Glaeser & Jose A. Scheinkman & Andrei Shleifer, 1995. "Economic Growth in a Cross-Section of Cities," NBER Working Papers 5013, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  3. Da Mata, Daniel & Deichmann, Uwe & Henderson, J. Vernon & Lall, Somik V. & Wang, Hyoung Gun, 2005. "Examining the growth patterns of Brazilian cities," Policy Research Working Paper Series 3724, The World Bank.
  4. Giles Duranton & Diego Puga, 2003. "Micro-Foundations of Urban Agglomeration Economies," NBER Working Papers 9931, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  5. David N. Weil, 2005. "Accounting for the Effect of Health on Economic Growth," NBER Working Papers 11455, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  6. repec:oup:restud:v:60:y:1993:i:1:p:35-52 is not listed on IDEAS
  7. Sanders Korenman & David Neumark, 1997. "Cohort Crowding and Youth Labor Markets: A Cross-National Analysis," NBER Working Papers 6031, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  8. Persson, T. & Tabellini, G., 1993. "Is Inequality Harmful for Growth," Papers 537, Stockholm - International Economic Studies.
  9. Conley, T. G., 1999. "GMM estimation with cross sectional dependence," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 92(1), pages 1-45, September.
  10. repec:oup:qjecon:v:109:y:1994:i:2:p:465-90 is not listed on IDEAS
  11. repec:oup:qjecon:v:114:y:1999:i:4:p:1193-1242 is not listed on IDEAS
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