Crowded Career Ladders? Intra-Firm Spillovers of Raised Retirement Age

I study how delayed retirements reshape firms’ internal labor markets, leverag ing a German reform that raised women’s early retirement age by at least three years. The reform increased retention of older women and reduced both internal promotions and external hiring of younger coworkers. Spillovers are structured: promotion crowd-outs arise in thick internal labor markets with intense competi tion, while hiring declines are largest in thin external markets with high turnover costs. Crowd-out effects concentrate within jobcells, whereas coworkers in differ ent jobcells can benefit when retained older workers possess specific human capital. The evidence supports slot-constraint theories—augmented by firm-specific human capital mechanisms.