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Terrorism Risk and Democratic Preferences in Pakistan

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  • F. Rehman Ur
  • P. Vanin

Abstract

Beyond direct damages, terrorism creates fear and insecurity, potentially reducing support for democratic institutions if these are deemed inadequate to tackle the threat, and increasing support for military governments. To investigate this possibility, we use data from Pakistan, a country that experienced an exponential rise in terrorism since 2001. Exploiting individual level data on democratic attitudes and district level information on terrorist attacks, we document that persistent exposure to terrorism (and more broadly to violence) is associated to a significantly lower support for democratic values. Results are robust to the inclusion of different sets of controls, to sample splits based on gender, urbanization and education, and to endogeneity considerations. Instrumenting terrorism and violence by the distance from the Pak-Afghan border and by religious fractionalization suggests that the documented correlation refl ects a causal impact. Terrorism thus threatens not only individuals, but also democratic institutions.

Suggested Citation

  • F. Rehman Ur & P. Vanin, 2015. "Terrorism Risk and Democratic Preferences in Pakistan," Working Papers wp1037, Dipartimento Scienze Economiche, Universita' di Bologna.
  • Handle: RePEc:bol:bodewp:wp1037
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    Cited by:

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    2. Mazhar Ummad, 2019. "Terrorism and Firm Performance: Empirical Evidence from Pakistan," The B.E. Journal of Economic Analysis & Policy, De Gruyter, vol. 19(1), pages 1-17, January.
    3. Hafiz Muhammad Abubakar Siddique & Rabia Liaqat & Kaleem Ullah, 2017. "Impact of Terrorism on Investment: Evidence from Pakistan," Bulletin of Business and Economics (BBE), Research Foundation for Humanity (RFH), vol. 6(4), pages 195-199, December.
    4. Parlow, Anton, 2017. "Political Violence, Domestic Violence, and Children's Health: The Case of Pakistan," MPRA Paper 82966, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    5. Khusrav Gaibulloev & Gerel Oyun & Javed Younas, 2019. "Terrorism and subjective financial well-being: micro-level evidence from Pakistan," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 178(3), pages 493-512, March.
    6. Ummad Mazhar & Fahd Rehman, 2019. "Diehard or delicate? Violence and young firm performance in a developing country," Business Economics, Palgrave Macmillan;National Association for Business Economics, vol. 54(4), pages 236-247, October.
    7. Stoop, Nik & Verpoorten, Marijke & van der Windt, Peter, 2019. "Artisanal or industrial conflict minerals? Evidence from Eastern Congo," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 122(C), pages 660-674.
    8. Marco Alfano & Joseph-Simon Gorlach, 2019. "Terrorism, education and the role of expectations: evidence from al-Shabaab attacks in Kenya," Working Papers 1904, University of Strathclyde Business School, Department of Economics.
    9. Ummad Mazhar, 2021. "Women empowerment and insecurity: firm-level evidence," Business Economics, Palgrave Macmillan;National Association for Business Economics, vol. 56(1), pages 43-53, January.
    10. Abbasi, Kashif & Jiao, Zhilun & Khan, Arman & Shahbaz, Muhammad, 2020. "Asymmetric impact of renewable and non-renewable energy on economic growth in Pakistan: New evidence from a nonlinear analysis," MPRA Paper 101854, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 13 Jul 2020.
    11. Nouha Bougharriou & Walid Benayed & Foued Badr Gabsi, 2016. "On the determinants of democracy in the Arab World," Romanian Economic Journal, Department of International Business and Economics from the Academy of Economic Studies Bucharest, vol. 18(59), pages 25-42, March.
    12. Shuai Chen, 2022. "Rally Post-Terrorism," CESifo Working Paper Series 9638, CESifo.
    13. Ummad Mazhar, 2021. "Terrorism Risk and the Mediating Role of Manager Experience: Empirical Evidence," Asian Economic Journal, East Asian Economic Association, vol. 35(3), pages 317-337, September.

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • D74 - Microeconomics - - Analysis of Collective Decision-Making - - - Conflict; Conflict Resolution; Alliances; Revolutions
    • F59 - International Economics - - International Relations, National Security, and International Political Economy - - - Other
    • K42 - Law and Economics - - Legal Procedure, the Legal System, and Illegal Behavior - - - Illegal Behavior and the Enforcement of Law
    • O17 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Formal and Informal Sectors; Shadow Economy; Institutional Arrangements

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