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Export dynamics since the Great Trade Collapse: a cross-country analysis

Author

Listed:
  • Lewis, John

    (Bank of England)

  • De Schryder, Selien

    (University of Ghent)

Abstract

Using a panel model of goods exports for 16 OECD economies, we quantify advanced economies’ export performance since the ‘Great Trade Collapse’ (GTC). We go beyond the traditional determinants of trade to include a variable measuring shifts in the sectoral composition of world trade and split the real exchange rate into its constituent parts to allow for a differential response to unit labour costs and the nominal exchange rate. We find that, a pre-crisis model based on average coefficients explains the recovery in aggregate exports since the GTC well. But at the country level, we do find substantial cross-country variation in export performance.

Suggested Citation

  • Lewis, John & De Schryder, Selien, 2015. "Export dynamics since the Great Trade Collapse: a cross-country analysis," Bank of England working papers 535, Bank of England.
  • Handle: RePEc:boe:boeewp:0535
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Karol Szafranek & Aleksandra Hałka, 2017. "Determinants of low inflation in an emerging, small open economy. A comparison of aggregated and disaggregated approaches," NBP Working Papers 267, Narodowy Bank Polski, Economic Research Department.
    2. Fedoseeva, Svetlana & Zeidan, Rodrigo, 2016. "A dead-end tunnel or the light at the end of it: The role of BRICs in European exports," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 237-248.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    International trade; forecasting; cross-country panel;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C23 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models
    • F14 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Empirical Studies of Trade
    • F17 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Trade Forecasting and Simulation

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