IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/bge/wpaper/672.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

The Farm, the City, and the Emergence of Social Security

Author

Listed:
  • Elizabeth M. Caucutt
  • Thomas F. Cooley
  • Nezih Guner

Abstract

We study the social, demographic and economic origins of social security. The data for the U.S. and for a cross section of countries suggest that urbanization and industrialization are associated with the rise of social insurance. We describe an OLG model in which demographics, technology, and social security are linked together in a political economy equilibrium. In the model economy, there are two locations (sectors), the farm (agricultural) and the city (industrial) and the decision to migrate from rural to urban locations is endogenous and linked to productivity differences between the two locations and survival probabilities. Farmers rely on land inheritance for their old age and do not support a pay- as-you-go social security system. With structural change, people migrate to the city, the land loses its importance and support for social security arises. We show that a calibrated version of this economy, where social security taxes are determined by majority voting, is consistent with the historical transformation in the United States.

Suggested Citation

  • Elizabeth M. Caucutt & Thomas F. Cooley & Nezih Guner, 2012. "The Farm, the City, and the Emergence of Social Security," Working Papers 672, Barcelona School of Economics.
    • Handle: RePEc:bge:wpaper:672
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.barcelonagse.eu/sites/default/files/working_paper_pdfs/672.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Raleigh Barlowe & John F. Timmons, 1950. "What Has Happened to the Agricultural Ladder?," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 32(1), pages 30-47.
    2. Karen A. Kopecky, 2011. "The Trend In Retirement," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 52(2), pages 287-316, May.
    3. Matthias Doepke & Fabrizio Zilibotti, 2008. "Occupational Choice and the Spirit of Capitalism," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 123(2), pages 747-793.
    4. Perotti, Enrico & Schwienbacher, Armin, 2009. "The political origin of pension funding," Journal of Financial Intermediation, Elsevier, vol. 18(3), pages 384-404, July.
    5. Jeremy Greenwood & Ananth Seshadri, 2002. "The U.S. Demographic Transition," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 92(2), pages 153-159, May.
    6. John Hassler & José V. Rodríguez Mora & Kjetil Storesletten & Fabrizio Zilibotti, 2005. "A Positive Theory Of Geographic Mobility And Social Insurance," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 46(1), pages 263-303, February.
    7. Parente, Stephen L. & Prescott, Edward C., 2005. "A Unified Theory of the Evolution of International Income Levels," Handbook of Economic Growth, in: Philippe Aghion & Steven Durlauf (ed.), Handbook of Economic Growth, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 21, pages 1371-1416, Elsevier.
    8. Jeremy Greenwood & Gokce Uysal, 2005. "New Goods and the Transition to a New Economy," Journal of Economic Growth, Springer, vol. 10(2), pages 99-134, June.
    9. Douglas Cleveland, 1985. "Analysis," Challenge, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 28(4), pages 50-53, September.
    10. John Hassler & José V. Rodríguez Mora & Kjetil Storesletten & Fabrizio Zilibotti, 2003. "The Survival of the Welfare State," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 93(1), pages 87-112, March.
    11. William Newell, 1986. "Inheritance on the Maturing Frontier: Butler County, Ohio, 1803-1865," NBER Chapters, in: Long-Term Factors in American Economic Growth, pages 261-304, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    12. Piyabha Kongsamut & Sergio Rebelo & Danyang Xie, 2001. "Beyond Balanced Growth," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 68(4), pages 869-882.
    13. Oded Galor & Omer Moav & Dietrich Vollrath, 2009. "Inequality in Landownership, the Emergence of Human-Capital Promoting Institutions, and the Great Divergence," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 76(1), pages 143-179.
    14. Lindert Peter H., 1994. "The Rise of Social Spending, 1880-1930," Explorations in Economic History, Elsevier, vol. 31(1), pages 1-37, January.
    15. James D. Smith, 1980. "Modeling the Distribution and Intergenerational Transmission of Wealth," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number smit80-1.
    16. Jeffrey A. Miron & David N. Weil, 1998. "The Genesis and Evolution of Social Security," NBER Chapters, in: The Defining Moment: The Great Depression and the American Economy in the Twentieth Century, pages 297-322, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    17. Matthias Doepke & Fabrizio Zilibotti, 2005. "The Macroeconomics of Child Labor Regulation," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 95(5), pages 1492-1524, December.
    18. Cooley, Thomas F. & Soares, Jorge, 1996. "Will social security survive the baby boom?," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 45(1), pages 89-121, December.
    19. Oded Galor & David N. Weil, 1998. "Population, Technology, and Growth: From Malthusian Stagnation to the Demographic Transition," Working Papers 98-3, Brown University, Department of Economics, revised 19 Aug 1998.
    20. Michele BOLDRIN & Mariacristina DE NARDI & Larry E. JONES, 2015. "Fertility and Social Security," JODE - Journal of Demographic Economics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 81(3), pages 261-299, September.
    21. Lee Soltow, 1992. "Inequalities in the Standard of Living in the United States,1798-1875," NBER Chapters, in: American Economic Growth and Standards of Living before the Civil War, pages 121-172, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    22. Dirk Krueger & Felix Kubler, 2006. "Pareto-Improving Social Security Reform when Financial Markets are Incomplete!?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 96(3), pages 737-755, June.
    23. Douglas Gollin & Stephen Parente & Richard Rogerson, 2002. "The Role of Agriculture in Development," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 92(2), pages 160-164, May.
    24. Oded Galor & Omer Moav, 2000. "Das Human Kapital," Working Papers 2000-17, Brown University, Department of Economics.
    25. Thomas F. Cooley & Jorge Soares, 1999. "A Positive Theory of Social Security Based on Reputation," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 107(1), pages 135-160, February.
    26. Michael D. Bordo & Claudia Goldin & Eugene N. White, 1998. "The Defining Moment: The Great Depression and the American Economy in the Twentieth Century," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number bord98-1.
    27. Peter Temin, 1991. "Lessons from the Great Depression," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262700441, April.
    28. Guillaume Vandenbroucke, 2008. "The U.S. Westward Expansion," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 49(1), pages 81-110, February.
    29. N/A, 2001. "The World Economy," National Institute Economic Review, National Institute of Economic and Social Research, vol. 176(1), pages 35-60, April.
    30. David N. Weil & Oded Galor, 2000. "Population, Technology, and Growth: From Malthusian Stagnation to the Demographic Transition and Beyond," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 90(4), pages 806-828, September.
    31. Gonzales-Eiras, Martín & Niepelt, Dirk, 2004. "Sustaining Social Security," Seminar Papers 731, Stockholm University, Institute for International Economic Studies.
    32. Gary D. Hansen & Edward C. Prescott, 2002. "Malthus to Solow," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 92(4), pages 1205-1217, September.
    33. Piyabha Kongsamut & Sergio Rebelo & Danyang Xie, 2001. "Beyond Balanced Growth," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 68(4), pages 869-882.
    34. Browning, Edgar K, 1975. "Why the Social Insurance Budget Is Too Large in a Democracy," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 13(3), pages 373-388, September.
    35. Imrohoroglu, Ayse & Imrohoroglu, Selahattin & Joines, Douglas H, 1995. "A Life Cycle Analysis of Social Security," Economic Theory, Springer;Society for the Advancement of Economic Theory (SAET), vol. 6(1), pages 83-114, June.
    36. N/A, 2001. "The World Economy," National Institute Economic Review, National Institute of Economic and Social Research, vol. 175(1), pages 29-58, January.
    37. Klein, Paul & Ventura, Gustavo, 2009. "Productivity differences and the dynamic effects of labor movements," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 56(8), pages 1059-1073, November.
    38. Corbae, Dean & D'Erasmo, Pablo & Kuruscu, Burhanettin, 2009. "Politico-economic consequences of rising wage inequality," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 56(1), pages 43-61, January.
    39. Rothenberg, Winifred Barr, 1992. "From Market-Places to a Market Economy," University of Chicago Press Economics Books, University of Chicago Press, edition 1, number 9780226729534, December.
    40. Stanley L. Engerman & Robert E. Gallman, 1986. "Long-Term Factors in American Economic Growth," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number enge86-1.
    41. Oded Galor & Omer Moav, 2006. "Das Human-Kapital: A Theory of the Demise of the Class Structure," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 73(1), pages 85-117.
    42. Juan C. Conesa & Dirk Krueger, 1999. "Social Security Reform with Heterogeneous Agents," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 2(4), pages 757-795, October.
    43. Michael R. Haines, 1994. "Estimated Life Tables for the United States, 1850-1900," NBER Historical Working Papers 0059, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    44. John Laitner, 2000. "Structural Change and Economic Growth," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 67(3), pages 545-561.
    45. Wang, Ta-Chen, 2008. "Banks, Credit Markets, and Early American Development: A Case Study of Entry and Competition," The Journal of Economic History, Cambridge University Press, vol. 68(2), pages 438-461, June.
    46. BOLDRIN, Michele & RUSTICHINI, Aldo, 1994. "Equilibria with Social Security," LIDAM Discussion Papers CORE 1994060, Université catholique de Louvain, Center for Operations Research and Econometrics (CORE).
    47. Echevarria, Cristina, 1997. "Changes in Sectoral Composition Associated with Economic Growth," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 38(2), pages 431-452, May.
    48. Robert E. Gallman & John Joseph Wallis, 1992. "American Economic Growth and Standards of Living before the Civil War," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number gall92-1.
    49. Matthias Doepke & Michèle Tertilt, 2009. "Women's Liberation: What's in It for Men?," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 124(4), pages 1541-1591.
    50. Harold L. Cole & Lee E. Ohanian, 2004. "New Deal Policies and the Persistence of the Great Depression: A General Equilibrium Analysis," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 112(4), pages 779-816, August.
    51. Collier, David & Messick, Richard E., 1975. "Prerequisites Versus Diffusion: Testing Alternative Explanations of Social Security Adoption," American Political Science Review, Cambridge University Press, vol. 69(4), pages 1299-1315, December.
    52. Soltow, Lee, 1982. "Male Inheritance Expectations in the United States in 1870," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 64(2), pages 252-260, May.
    53. Jose-Victor Rios-Rull & Per Krusell, 1999. "On the Size of U.S. Government: Political Economy in the Neoclassical Growth Model," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 89(5), pages 1156-1181, December.
    54. Jeffrey G. Williamson & Peter H. Lindert, 1980. "Long-Term Trends in American Wealth Inequality," NBER Chapters, in: Modeling the Distribution and Intergenerational Transmission of Wealth, pages 9-94, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    55. Vincenzo Galasso, 1999. "The US Social Security System: What Does Political Sustainability Imply?," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 2(3), pages 698-730, July.
    56. Krusell, Per & Quadrini, Vincenzo & Rios-Rull, Jose-Victor, 1997. "Politico-economic equilibrium and economic growth," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 21(1), pages 243-272, January.
    57. Gomme, Paul & Rupert, Peter, 2007. "Theory, measurement and calibration of macroeconomic models," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(2), pages 460-497, March.
    58. Michele Boldrin & Aldo Rustichini, 2000. "Political Equilibria with Social Security," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 3(1), pages 41-78, January.
    59. Smith, James D., 1980. "Modeling the Distribution and Intergenerational Transmission of Wealth," National Bureau of Economic Research Books, University of Chicago Press, number 9780226764542, September.
    60. Mr. Sergio Rebelo & Ms. Piyabha Kongsamut & Danyang Xie, 2001. "Beyond Balanced Growth," IMF Working Papers 2001/085, International Monetary Fund.
    61. Bray Hammond, 1934. "Long and Short Term Credit in Early American Banking," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 49(1), pages 79-103.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Doepke, M. & Tertilt, M., 2016. "Families in Macroeconomics," Handbook of Macroeconomics, in: J. B. Taylor & Harald Uhlig (ed.), Handbook of Macroeconomics, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 0, pages 1789-1891, Elsevier.
    2. Luca Pensieroso & Alessandro Sommacal, 2019. "Agriculture to Industry: the End of Intergenerational Coresidence," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 34, pages 87-102, October.
    3. Vincenzo Galasso & Paola Profeta, 2018. "When the State Mirrors the Family: The Design of Pension Systems," Journal of the European Economic Association, European Economic Association, vol. 16(6), pages 1712-1763.
    4. Grech, Aaron George, 2013. "How best to measure pension adequacy," MPRA Paper 46126, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    5. Vincenzo Galasso & Paola Profeta, 2013. "From Family Culture to Welfare State Design," CHILD Working Papers Series 14, Centre for Household, Income, Labour and Demographic Economics (CHILD) - CCA.
    6. Balestrino, Alessandro & Ciardi, Cinzia & Mammini, Claudio, 2013. "On the causes and consequences of divorce," Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Economics (formerly The Journal of Socio-Economics), Elsevier, vol. 45(C), pages 1-9.
    7. Rizzo, Giuseppe, 2009. "Fertility and pension systems," MPRA Paper 12998, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    8. Aaron George, Grech, 2014. "Pension policy design: The core issues," MPRA Paper 53662, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    9. Lopez-Velasco, Armando R., 2016. "Solving dynamic inefficiency with politically sustainable guest worker programs," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 148(C), pages 1-4.
    10. Varvarigos, Dimitrios, 2021. "Upstream intergenerational transfers in economic development: The role of family ties and their cultural transmission," Journal of Mathematical Economics, Elsevier, vol. 96(C).
    11. Jialu Liu, 2011. "Human capital, migration and rural entrepreneurship in China," Indian Growth and Development Review, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 4(2), pages 100-122, September.
    12. Jeremy Greenwood & Nezih Guner & Karen A. Kopecky, 2019. "The Wife's Protector: A Quantitative Theory Linking Contraceptive Technology with the Decline in Marriage," Working Papers wp2019_1912, CEMFI.
    13. Achim Kemmerling & Michael Neugart, 2019. "Redistributive pensions in the developing world," Review of Development Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 23(2), pages 702-726, May.
    14. Peter Egger & Doina Radulescu & Nora Strecker, 2017. "On the spread of social protection systems," International Tax and Public Finance, Springer;International Institute of Public Finance, vol. 24(4), pages 550-574, August.
    15. Perotti, Enrico & Schwienbacher, Armin, 2009. "The political origin of pension funding," Journal of Financial Intermediation, Elsevier, vol. 18(3), pages 384-404, July.
    16. Peter Egger & Doina Radulescu & Nora Strecker, 2017. "On the spread of social protection systems," International Tax and Public Finance, Springer;International Institute of Public Finance, vol. 24(4), pages 550-574, August.
    17. repec:cep:sticas:/172 is not listed on IDEAS
    18. Lopez-Velasco, Armando R., 2024. "Markov equilibrium of social security: An analytic solution under CRRA utility and the future of social security," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 132(C).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Gonzalez-Eiras, Marti­n & Niepelt, Dirk, 2008. "The future of social security," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 55(2), pages 197-218, March.
    2. Jakob Madsen & James Ang & Rajabrata Banerjee, 2010. "Four centuries of British economic growth: the roles of technology and population," Journal of Economic Growth, Springer, vol. 15(4), pages 263-290, December.
    3. Foellmi, Reto & Zweimüller, Josef, 2008. "Structural change, Engel's consumption cycles and Kaldor's facts of economic growth," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 55(7), pages 1317-1328, October.
    4. Dietrich Vollrath, 2009. "The dual economy in long-run development," Journal of Economic Growth, Springer, vol. 14(4), pages 287-312, December.
    5. Antonio Saravia & Carlos Gustavo Machicado & Felix Rioja, 2014. "Productivity, Structural Change and Latin American Development," Review of Development Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 18(3), pages 610-624, August.
    6. Doepke, M. & Tertilt, M., 2016. "Families in Macroeconomics," Handbook of Macroeconomics, in: J. B. Taylor & Harald Uhlig (ed.), Handbook of Macroeconomics, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 0, pages 1789-1891, Elsevier.
    7. Jonathan Temple & Ludger Wößmann, 2006. "Dualism and cross-country growth regressions," Journal of Economic Growth, Springer, vol. 11(3), pages 187-228, September.
    8. Lorenzo Burlon, 2017. "Public expenditure distribution, voting, and growth," Journal of Public Economic Theory, Association for Public Economic Theory, vol. 19(4), pages 789-810, August.
    9. Mateos-Planas, Xavier, 2008. "A quantitative theory of social security without commitment," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 92(3-4), pages 652-671, April.
    10. Yang, Dennis Tao & Zhu, Xiaodong, 2013. "Modernization of agriculture and long-term growth," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 60(3), pages 367-382.
    11. Chu, Angus C. & Peretto, Pietro F. & Wang, Xilin, 2022. "Agricultural revolution and industrialization," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 158(C).
    12. Gollin, Douglas & Parente, Stephen L. & Rogerson, Richard, 2007. "The food problem and the evolution of international income levels," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(4), pages 1230-1255, May.
    13. Matthias Doepke, 2008. "Humankapital, politischer Wandel und langfristige Wirtschaftsentwicklung," Perspektiven der Wirtschaftspolitik, Verein für Socialpolitik, vol. 9(s1), pages 73-89, May.
    14. Zheng Song, 2011. "The Dynamics of Inequality and Social Security in General Equilibrium," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 14(4), pages 613-635, October.
    15. Matthias Doepke, "undated". "Growth Takeoffs," UCLA Economics Online Papers 409, UCLA Department of Economics.
    16. Herrendorf, Berthold & Rogerson, Richard & Valentinyi, Ákos, 2014. "Growth and Structural Transformation," Handbook of Economic Growth, in: Philippe Aghion & Steven Durlauf (ed.), Handbook of Economic Growth, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 6, pages 855-941, Elsevier.
    17. Yuki, Kazuhiro, 2016. "Education, Inequality, And Development In A Dual Economy," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 20(1), pages 27-69, January.
    18. Margarida Duarte & Diego Restuccia, 2010. "The Role of the Structural Transformation in Aggregate Productivity," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 125(1), pages 129-173.
    19. Reto Foellmi & Josef Zweim�ller, "undated". "Structural Change and the Kaldor Facts of Economic Growth," IEW - Working Papers 111, Institute for Empirical Research in Economics - University of Zurich.
    20. Galasso, Vincenzo & Profeta, Paola, 2002. "The political economy of social security: a survey," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 18(1), pages 1-29, March.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Social Security; political economy; structural change; Migration;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • H55 - Public Economics - - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies - - - Social Security and Public Pensions
    • H3 - Public Economics - - Fiscal Policies and Behavior of Economic Agents
    • D72 - Microeconomics - - Analysis of Collective Decision-Making - - - Political Processes: Rent-seeking, Lobbying, Elections, Legislatures, and Voting Behavior

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:bge:wpaper:672. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Bruno Guallar (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/bargses.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.