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Will Social Security Survive the Baby Boom?

Author

Listed:
  • Cooley, T.F.
  • Soares, J.

Abstract

In this paper we consider the design and implementation of a pay-as-you-go social insurance system as a problem in political economy. We consider whether a society of forward looking rational economic agents would implement a system in which the level of benefits can depend on the relative shares of different age groups in the population. We calibrate a model economy to match long-run features of the US economy and then look at the nature of the social security system that results.

Suggested Citation

  • Cooley, T.F. & Soares, J., 1996. "Will Social Security Survive the Baby Boom?," Papers 96-01, Rochester, Business - General.
  • Handle: RePEc:fth:robuge:96-01
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Kramer, Gerald H, 1973. "On a Class of Equilibrium Conditions for Majority Rule," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 41(2), pages 285-297, March.
    2. Jungenfelt, K., 1991. "An Analysis of Pay as you go Pension Systems as Dynastic Clubs," Papers 497, Stockholm - International Economic Studies.
    3. Hansson, Ingemar & Stuart, Charles, 1989. "Social Security as Trade among Living Generations," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 79(5), pages 1182-1195, December.
    4. Tabellini, Guido, 1991. "The Politics of Intergenerational Redistribution," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 99(2), pages 335-357, April.
    5. Browning, Edgar K, 1975. "Why the Social Insurance Budget Is Too Large in a Democracy," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 13(3), pages 373-388, September.
    6. Grandmont, Jean-Michel, 1978. "Intermediate Preferences and the Majority Rule," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 46(2), pages 317-330, March.
    7. BOLDRIN, Michele & RUSTICHINI, Aldo, 1994. "Equilibria with Social Security," CORE Discussion Papers 1994060, Université catholique de Louvain, Center for Operations Research and Econometrics (CORE).
    8. H. Verbon, 1987. "The rise and evolution of public pension systems," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 52(1), pages 75-100, January.
    9. Kotlikoff, Laurence J & Persson, Torsten & Svensson, Lars E O, 1988. "Social Contracts as Assets: A Possible Solution to the Time-Consistency Problem," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 78(4), pages 662-677, September.
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Doepke, M. & Tertilt, M., 2016. "Families in Macroeconomics," Handbook of Macroeconomics, Elsevier.
    2. Elizabeth Caucutt & Thomas Cooley & Nezih Guner, 2013. "The farm, the city, and the emergence of social security," Journal of Economic Growth, Springer, vol. 18(1), pages 1-32, March.
    3. Mateos-Planas, Xavier, 2008. "A quantitative theory of social security without commitment," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 92(3-4), pages 652-671, April.
    4. Disney, Richard & Galasso, Vincenzo & Profeta, Paola, 2007. "A further comment on ageing and the welfare state," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 23(2), pages 576-577, June.
    5. Alan J. Auerbach, 2012. "Societal Aging: Implications for Fiscal Policy," IMES Discussion Paper Series 12-E-12, Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies, Bank of Japan.
    6. Puhakka, Mikko, 2005. "The effects of aging population on the sustainability of fiscal policy," Research Discussion Papers 26/2005, Bank of Finland.
    7. Gertler, Mark, 1999. "Government debt and social security in a life-cycle economy," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 50(1), pages 61-110, June.
    8. Joines, Douglas H., 1999. "Will social security and medicare remain viable as the U.S. population is aging? : A comment," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 50(1), pages 55-60, June.
    9. Marco Bassetto, 2008. "Political Economy of Taxation in an Overlapping-Generations Economy," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 11(1), pages 18-43, January.
    10. Bohn, Henning, 1999. "Will social security and Medicare remain viable as the U.S. population is aging?," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 50(1), pages 1-53, June.
    11. Mariacristina De Nardi & Selahattin Imrohoroglu & Thomas J. Sargent, 1999. "Projected U.S. Demographics and Social Security," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 2(3), pages 575-615, July.
    12. Ayşe İmrohoroğlu & Selahattin İmrohoroğlu & Douglas H. Joines, 2003. "Time-Inconsistent Preferences and Social Security," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 118(2), pages 745-784.
    13. Galasso, Vincenzo & Profeta, Paola, 2002. "The political economy of social security: a survey," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 18(1), pages 1-29, March.
    14. Cooley, Thomas F., 1999. "Government debt and social security in a life-cycle economy : A comment," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 50(1), pages 111-117, June.
    15. Galasso, Vincenzo & Profeta, Paola, 2007. "How does ageing affect the welfare state?," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 23(2), pages 554-563, June.
    16. Paola Profeta, 2002. "Aging and Retirement: Evidence Across Countries," International Tax and Public Finance, Springer;International Institute of Public Finance, vol. 9(6), pages 651-672, November.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    SOCIAL SECURITY ; POLITICS ; GENERATIONS;

    JEL classification:

    • H55 - Public Economics - - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies - - - Social Security and Public Pensions
    • D91 - Microeconomics - - Micro-Based Behavioral Economics - - - Role and Effects of Psychological, Emotional, Social, and Cognitive Factors on Decision Making

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