IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/bca/bocawp/07-13.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Optimization in a Simulation Setting: Use of Function Approximation in Debt Strategy Analysis

Author

Listed:
  • David Bolder
  • Tiago Rubin

Abstract

The stochastic simulation model suggested by Bolder (2003) for the analysis of the federal government's debt-management strategy provides a wide variety of useful information. It does not, however, assist in determining an optimal debt-management strategy for the government in its current form. Including optimization in the debt-strategy model would be useful, since it could substantially broaden the range of policy questions that can be addressed. Finding such an optimal strategy is nonetheless complicated by two challenges. First, performing optimization with traditional techniques in a simulation setting is computationally intractable. Second, it is necessary to define precisely what one means by an "optimal" debt strategy. The authors detail a possible approach for addressing these two challenges. They address the first challenge by approximating the numerically computed objective function using a function-approximation technique. They consider the use of ordinary least squares, kernel regression, multivariate adaptive regression splines, and projection-pursuit regressions as approximation algorithms. The second challenge is addressed by proposing a wide range of possible government objective functions and examining them in the context of an illustrative example. The authors' view is that the approach permits debt and fiscal managers to address a number of policy questions that could not be fully addressed with the current stochastic simulation engine.

Suggested Citation

  • David Bolder & Tiago Rubin, 2007. "Optimization in a Simulation Setting: Use of Function Approximation in Debt Strategy Analysis," Staff Working Papers 07-13, Bank of Canada.
  • Handle: RePEc:bca:bocawp:07-13
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.bankofcanada.ca/wp-content/uploads/2010/03/wp07-13.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Andrew B. Bernard & Jonathan Eaton & J. Bradford Jensen & Samuel Kortum, 2003. "Plants and Productivity in International Trade," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 93(4), pages 1268-1290, September.
    2. Fosfuri, Andrea & Motta, Massimo & Ronde, Thomas, 2001. "Foreign direct investment and spillovers through workers' mobility," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 53(1), pages 205-222, February.
    3. David Bolder, 2003. "A Stochastic Simulation Framework for the Government of Canada's Debt Strategy," Staff Working Papers 03-10, Bank of Canada.
    4. Sofronis K. Clerides & Saul Lach & James R. Tybout, 1998. "Is Learning by Exporting Important? Micro-Dynamic Evidence from Colombia, Mexico, and Morocco," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 113(3), pages 903-947.
    5. Marc J. Melitz, 2003. "The Impact of Trade on Intra-Industry Reallocations and Aggregate Industry Productivity," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 71(6), pages 1695-1725, November.
    6. David Bolder, 2006. "Modelling Term-Structure Dynamics for Risk Management: A Practitioner's Perspective," Staff Working Papers 06-48, Bank of Canada.
    7. David Bolder & Grahame Johnson & Adam Metzler, 2004. "An Empirical Analysis of the Canadian Term Structure of Zero-Coupon Interest Rates," Staff Working Papers 04-48, Bank of Canada.
    8. Bee Yan Aw & Sukkyun Chung & Mark J. Roberts, 1998. "Productivity and the Decision to Export: Micro Evidence from Taiwan and South Korea," NBER Working Papers 6558, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    9. David Bolder, 2001. "Affine Term-Structure Models: Theory and Implementation," Staff Working Papers 01-15, Bank of Canada.
    10. repec:rus:hseeco:122439 is not listed on IDEAS
    11. Mansoorian, Arman & Myers, Gordon M., 1993. "Attachment to home and efficient purchases of population in a fiscal externality economy," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 52(1), pages 117-132, August.
    12. Baldwin, John R. Gu, Wulong, 2003. "Participation in Export Markets and Productivity Performance in Canadian Manufacturing," Economic Analysis (EA) Research Paper Series 2003011e, Statistics Canada, Analytical Studies Branch.
    13. Peter Sephton, 2005. "Forecasting inflation using the term structure and MARS," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 12(4), pages 199-202.
    14. Peter Sephton, 2001. "Forecasting recessions: can we do better on MARS?," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, vol. 83(Mar), pages 39-49.
    15. Barron, John M & Black, Dan A & Loewenstein, Mark A, 1989. "Job Matching and On-the-Job Training," Journal of Labor Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 7(1), pages 1-19, January.
    16. Elhanan Helpman & Marc J. Melitz & Stephen R. Yeaple, 2004. "Export Versus FDI with Heterogeneous Firms," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 94(1), pages 300-316, March.
    17. John M. Barron & Mark C. Berger & Dan A. Black, 1999. "Do Workers Pay for On-The-Job Training?," Journal of Human Resources, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 34(2), pages 235-252.
    18. David Bolder & David Stréliski, 1999. "Yield Curve Modelling at the Bank of Canada," Technical Reports 84, Bank of Canada.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Sephton, Peter & Mann, Janelle, 2018. "Gold and crude oil prices after the great moderation," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 71(C), pages 273-281.
    2. Serhat Yuksel & Sinemis Zengin, 2017. "Influencing Factors of Net Interest Margin in Turkish Banking Sector," International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, Econjournals, vol. 7(1), pages 178-191.
    3. David Jamieson Bolder & Yuliya Romanyuk, 2010. "Combining Canadian Interest Rate Forecasts," Palgrave Macmillan Books, in: Arjan B. Berkelaar & Joachim Coche & Ken Nyholm (ed.), Interest Rate Models, Asset Allocation and Quantitative Techniques for Central Banks and Sovereign Wealth Funds, chapter 1, pages 3-30, Palgrave Macmillan.
    4. David Bolder & Simon Deeley, 2011. "The Canadian Debt-Strategy Model: An Overview of the Principal Elements," Discussion Papers 11-3, Bank of Canada.
    5. Mr. Udaibir S Das & Miss Yinqiu Lu & Mr. Michael G. Papaioannou & Iva Petrova, 2012. "Sovereign Risk and Asset and Liability Management: Conceptual Issues," IMF Working Papers 2012/241, International Monetary Fund.
    6. Consiglio Andrea & Zenios Stavros A., 2015. "Risk Management Optimization for Sovereign Debt Restructuring," Journal of Globalization and Development, De Gruyter, vol. 6(2), pages 181-213, December.
    7. Sephton, Peter S., 2019. "El Niño, La Niña, and a cup of Joe," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 84(C).
    8. Serhat Yüksel & Shahriyar Mukhtarov & Ceyhun Mahmudlu & Jeyhun I. Mikayilov & Anar Iskandarov, 2018. "Measuring International Migration in Azerbaijan," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 10(1), pages 1-15, January.
    9. Cangoz,Mehmet Coskun & Sulla,Olga & Wang,ChunLan & Dychala,Christopher Benjamin, 2019. "A Joint Foreign Currency Risk Management Approach for Sovereign Assets and Liabilities," Policy Research Working Paper Series 8728, The World Bank.
    10. Johannes Holler, 2013. "Funding Strategies of Sovereign Debt Management: A Risk Focus," Monetary Policy & the Economy, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank), issue 2, pages 51-74.
    11. Balibek, Emre & Köksalan, Murat, 2010. "A multi-objective multi-period stochastic programming model for public debt management," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 205(1), pages 205-217, August.
    12. K. Batu Tunay, 2010. "Banking Crises and Early Warning Systems: A Model Suggestion for Turkish Banking Sector," Journal of BRSA Banking and Financial Markets, Banking Regulation and Supervision Agency, vol. 4(1), pages 9-46.
    13. Andrea Consiglio & Stavros Zenios, 2015. "Risk profiles for re-profiling the sovereign debt of crisis countries," Journal of Risk Finance, Emerald Group Publishing, vol. 16(1), pages 2-26, January.
    14. Balibek, Emre & Memis, Hamdi Alper, 2012. "Turkish treasury simulation model for debt strategy analysis," Policy Research Working Paper Series 6091, The World Bank.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Baldwin, Richard E. & Robert-Nicoud, Frederic, 2008. "Trade and growth with heterogeneous firms," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 74(1), pages 21-34, January.
    2. Flora Bellone & Patrick Musso & Lionel Nesta & Michel Quere, 2008. "The U-Shaped Productivity Dynamics of French Exporters," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 144(4), pages 636-659, December.
    3. Andrzej Cieślik, 2015. "Imperfect competition, productivity differences and proximity concentration trade-offs," Ekonomia journal, Faculty of Economic Sciences, University of Warsaw, vol. 40.
    4. Toshihiro Okubo, 2012. "Antiagglomeration Subsidies With Heterogeneous Firms," Journal of Regional Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 52(2), pages 285-299, May.
    5. Richard E. Baldwin & Rikard Forslid, 2010. "Trade Liberalization with Heterogeneous Firms," Review of Development Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 14(2), pages 161-176, May.
    6. Jens M. Arnold & Katrin Hussinger, 2010. "Exports versus FDI in German Manufacturing: Firm Performance and Participation in International Markets," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 18(4), pages 595-606, September.
    7. repec:hal:spmain:info:hdl:2441/6128 is not listed on IDEAS
    8. Elhanan Helpman, 2010. "Labor Market Frictions as a Source of Comparative Advantage, with Implications for Unemployment and Inequality," NBER Working Papers 15764, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    9. Andrew B. Bernard & J. Bradford Jensen & Stephen J. Redding & Peter K. Schott, 2018. "Global Firms," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 56(2), pages 565-619, June.
    10. Yoshino, Yutaka, 2008. "Domestic constraints, firm characteristics, and geographical diversification of firm-level manufacturing exports in Africa," Policy Research Working Paper Series 4575, The World Bank.
    11. Francesco Serti & Chiara Tomasi, 2008. "Self-Selection and Post-Entry Effects of Exports: Evidence from Italian Manufacturing Firms," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 144(4), pages 660-694, December.
    12. Massimo Del Gatto & Gianmarco I. P. Ottaviano & Marcello Pagnini, 2008. "Openness To Trade And Industry Cost Dispersion: Evidence From A Panel Of Italian Firms," Journal of Regional Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 48(1), pages 97-129, February.
    13. Gabriel J. Felbermayr & Mario Larch & Wolfgang Lechthaler, 2013. "Unemployment in an Interdependent World," American Economic Journal: Economic Policy, American Economic Association, vol. 5(1), pages 262-301, February.
    14. Beverly Lapham & Hiroyuki Kasahara, 2005. "Import Protection as Export Destruction," 2005 Meeting Papers 528, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    15. Joel Rodrigue, 2014. "Multinational Production, Exports and Aggregate Productivity," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 17(2), pages 243-261, April.
    16. Anders Akerman & Rikard Forslid, 2009. "Firm Heterogeneity and Country Size Dependent Market Entry Costs," Global COE Hi-Stat Discussion Paper Series gd09-056, Institute of Economic Research, Hitotsubashi University.
    17. Gregory Corcos & Massimo Del Gatto & Giordano Mion & Gianmarco I.P. Ottaviano, 2012. "Productivity and Firm Selection: Quantifying the ‘New’ Gains from Trade," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 122(561), pages 754-798, June.
    18. Chen, Maggie Xiaoyang & Moore, Michael O., 2010. "Location decision of heterogeneous multinational firms," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 80(2), pages 188-199, March.
    19. Martin Andersson & Sara Johansson & Hans Lööf, 2012. "Firm Performance and International Trade – Evidence from a Small Open Economy," Chapters, in: Charlie Karlsson & Börje Johansson & Roger R. Stough (ed.), The Regional Economics of Knowledge and Talent, chapter 13, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    20. Richard Dion & Robert Fay, 2008. "Understanding Productivity: A Review of Recent Technical Research," Discussion Papers 08-3, Bank of Canada.
    21. Elhanan Helpman, 2006. "Trade, FDI, and the Organization of Firms," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 44(3), pages 589-630, September.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Debt management; Econometric and statistical methods; Fiscal policy; Financial markets;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C0 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - General
    • C14 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Semiparametric and Nonparametric Methods: General
    • C15 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Statistical Simulation Methods: General
    • C51 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Construction and Estimation
    • C52 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Evaluation, Validation, and Selection
    • C61 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Optimization Techniques; Programming Models; Dynamic Analysis
    • C65 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Miscellaneous Mathematical Tools
    • E6 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook
    • G1 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets
    • H63 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - Debt; Debt Management; Sovereign Debt

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:bca:bocawp:07-13. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: the person in charge (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/bocgvca.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.