Forecasting inflation using the term structure and MARS
This study revisits the issue of forecasting changes in inflation using non-linear non-parametric methods. The results indicate the presence of threshold effects in the relationship between the information in the term structure and changes in the rate of inflation.
Volume (Year): 12 (2005)
Issue (Month): 4 ()
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- Mishkin, Frederic S, 1990.
"The Information in the Longer Maturity Term Structure about Future Inflation,"
The Quarterly Journal of Economics,
MIT Press, vol. 105(3), pages 815-28, August.
- Frederic S. Mishkin, 1991. "The Information in the Longer Maturity Term Structure about Future Inflation," NBER Working Papers 3126, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Tkacz, Greg, 2000. "Non-Parametric and Neural Network Models of Inflation Changes," Working Papers 00-7, Bank of Canada.
- Frederic S. Mishkin, 1991. "A Multi-Country Study of the Information in the Term Structure about Future Inflation," NBER Working Papers 3125, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Mishkin, Frederic S., 1990.
"What does the term structure tell us about future inflation?,"
Journal of Monetary Economics,
Elsevier, vol. 25(1), pages 77-95, January.
- Frederic S. Mishkin, 1988. "What Does the Term Structure Tell Us About Future Inflation?," NBER Working Papers 2626, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Mishkin, F.S., 1988. "What Does The Term Structure Tell Us About Future Inflation?," Papers fb-_88-29, Columbia - Graduate School of Business.
- Granger, Clive W J & Hallman, Jeffrey J, 1991. "Long Memory Series with Attractors," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 53(1), pages 11-26, February.
- Peter Sephton, 2001. "Forecasting recessions: can we do better on MARS?," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue Mar, pages 39-49.
- Mishkin, Frederic S., 1991. "A multi-country study of the information in the shorter maturity term structure about future inflation," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 10(1), pages 2-22, March.
- William Poole, 2001. "Monetary policy in uncertain times," Speech 63, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
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