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Forecasting inflation using the term structure and MARS

  • Peter Sephton

This study revisits the issue of forecasting changes in inflation using non-linear non-parametric methods. The results indicate the presence of threshold effects in the relationship between the information in the term structure and changes in the rate of inflation.

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Article provided by Taylor & Francis Journals in its journal Applied Economics Letters.

Volume (Year): 12 (2005)
Issue (Month): 4 ()
Pages: 199-202

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Handle: RePEc:taf:apeclt:v:12:y:2005:i:4:p:199-202
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  1. Mishkin, Frederic S, 1990. "The Information in the Longer Maturity Term Structure about Future Inflation," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 105(3), pages 815-28, August.
  2. Tkacz, Greg, 2000. "Non-Parametric and Neural Network Models of Inflation Changes," Working Papers 00-7, Bank of Canada.
  3. Frederic S. Mishkin, 1991. "A Multi-Country Study of the Information in the Term Structure about Future Inflation," NBER Working Papers 3125, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  4. Mishkin, Frederic S., 1990. "What does the term structure tell us about future inflation?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 25(1), pages 77-95, January.
  5. Granger, Clive W J & Hallman, Jeffrey J, 1991. "Long Memory Series with Attractors," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 53(1), pages 11-26, February.
  6. Peter Sephton, 2001. "Forecasting recessions: can we do better on MARS?," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue Mar, pages 39-49.
  7. Mishkin, Frederic S., 1991. "A multi-country study of the information in the shorter maturity term structure about future inflation," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 10(1), pages 2-22, March.
  8. William Poole, 2001. "Monetary policy in uncertain times," Speech 63, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
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