Analyzing the Impact of Trade Preferences in Gravity Models. Does Aggregation Matter?
There are two sources of bias in the existing gravity equations used to assess the impact of non-reciprocal preferential trade policies (NRPTPs). The main inconsistency comes from the use of aggregate export flows at country level to analyse the effects of trade preferences which, by contrast, apply at product level. The second source of bias is that the literature does not deal with the main econometric issues which are likely to be present when a gravity equation is estimated. This paper discusses the first problem using evidence based on three levels of data aggregation (total exports, total agricultural exports and 2-digit). Furthermore, the estimation methods take into account the unobservable country heterogeneity as well as the endogeneity of trade preferences and the potential selection bias which zero-trade values pose. We consider all NRPTPs granted by 8 major OECD countries to exports from developing countries over the period 1995-2003. We find two key results. First of all we show that the impact of NRPTPs on total exports is positive, whatever the estimator. This means that, other things being equal, the national exports to the preference-giving country of a preferred country are higher than those of a non-preferred country. Secondly, when the analysis is conducted at 2-digit level, it emerges that the preference premium is very high in many 2-digit sectors, whatever the preferential treatment (GSP and/or other preferences). This finding stands in contrast with the result obtained when total exports are considered, which places the preference gain at lower values.
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Lars Nilsson, 2002. "Trading relations: is the roadmap from Lometo Cotonou correct?," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 34(4), pages 439-452.
- Cardamone, Paola, 2007.
"A Survey of the Assessments of the Effectiveness of Preferential Trade Agreements using Gravity Models,"
Economia Internazionale / International Economics,
Camera di Commercio di Genova, vol. 60(4), pages 421-473.
- Cardamone, Paola, 2007. "A survey of the assessments of the effectiveness of Preferential Trade Agreements using gravity models," Working Papers 7282, TRADEAG - Agricultural Trade Agreements.
- I-Hui Cheng & Howard J. Wall, 2005.
"Controlling for heterogeneity in gravity models of trade and integration,"
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue Jan, pages 49-63.
- I-Hui Cheng & Howard J. Wall, 2004. "Controlling for heterogeneity in gravity models of trade and integration," Working Papers 1999-010, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
- Heckman, James, 2013.
"Sample selection bias as a specification error,"
Publishing House "SINERGIA PRESS", vol. 31(3), pages 129-137.
- Emlinger, Charlotte & Lozza, Emmanuelle Chevassus & Jacquet, Florence, 2006. "EU market access for Mediterranean fruit and vegetables: A gravity model assessment," 98th Seminar, June 29-July 2, 2006, Chania, Crete, Greece 10098, European Association of Agricultural Economists.
- Alberto Amurgo Pacheco, 2006. "Preferential Trade Liberalization and the Range of Exported Products: The Case of the Euro-Mediterranean FTA," IHEID Working Papers 18-2006, Economics Section, The Graduate Institute of International Studies.
- Ozden, Caglar & Reinhardt, Eric, 2005.
"The perversity of preferences: GSP and developing country trade policies, 1976-2000,"
Journal of Development Economics,
Elsevier, vol. 78(1), pages 1-21, October.
- Ozden, Caglar & Reinhardt, Eric, 2003. "The perversity of preferences : GSP and developing country trade policies, 1976 - 2000," Policy Research Working Paper Series 2955, The World Bank.
- Rose, Andrew K, 2004.
"Does the WTO Make Trade More Stable?,"
CEPR Discussion Papers
4246, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Peter Egger, .
"An Econometric View on the Estimation of Gravity Models and the Calculation of Trade Potentials,"
WIFO Working Papers
- Peter Egger, 2002. "An Econometric View on the Estimation of Gravity Models and the Calculation of Trade Potentials," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 25(2), pages 297-312, 02.
- Hausman, Jerry A. & Taylor, William E., 1981.
"Panel data and unobservable individual effects,"
Journal of Econometrics,
Elsevier, vol. 16(1), pages 155-155, May.
- Peter Egger & Michael Pfaffermayr, 2003. "The proper panel econometric specification of the gravity equation: A three-way model with bilateral interaction effects," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 28(3), pages 571-580, July.
- Laura Serlenga & Yongcheol Shin, 2004.
"Gravity Models of the Intra-EU Trade: Application of the Hausman-Taylor Estimation in Heterogeneous Panels with Common Time-specific Factors,"
ESE Discussion Papers
105, Edinburgh School of Economics, University of Edinburgh.
- Yongcheol Shin & Laura Serlenga, 2004. "Gravity Models of the Intra-EU Trade: Application of the Hausman-Taylor Estimation in Heterogeneous Panels with Common Time-specific Factors," Econometric Society 2004 Far Eastern Meetings 671, Econometric Society.
- Bruce E. Hansen, 1996.
"Sample Splitting and Threshold Estimation,"
Boston College Working Papers in Economics
319., Boston College Department of Economics, revised 12 May 1998.
- Garcia-Alvarez-Coque, Jose Maria & Martí-Selva, Maria-Luis, 2006.
"A Gravity Approach to Assess the Effects of Association Agreements on Euromediterranean Trade of Fruits and Vegetables,"
4124, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Selva, Maria Luisa Marti & Garcia Alvarez-Coque, Jose-Maria, 2006. "A Gravity Approach to Assess the Effects of Association Agreements on Euromediterranean Trade of Fruits and Vegetables," Working Papers 18874, TRADEAG - Agricultural Trade Agreements.
- Guillaume Gaulier & Sébastien Jean & Deniz Ünal-Kesenci, 2004. "Regionalism and the Regionalisation of International Trade," Working Papers 2004-16, CEPII research center.
- Francois, Joseph & Hoekman, Bernard & Manchin, Miriam, 2005.
"Preference erosion and multilateral trade liberalization,"
Policy Research Working Paper Series
3730, The World Bank.
- Joseph Francois & Bernard Hoekman & Miriam Manchin, 2006. "Preference Erosion and Multilateral Trade Liberalization," World Bank Economic Review, World Bank Group, vol. 20(2), pages 197-216.
- Francois, Joseph & Hoekman, Bernard & Manchin, Miriam, 2005. "Preference Erosion and Multilateral Trade Liberalization," CEPR Discussion Papers 5153, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Joseph Francois & B. Hoekman & M. Manchin, 2005. "Preference Erosion and Multilateral Trade Liberalization," The Institute for International Integration Studies Discussion Paper Series iiisdp87, IIIS.
- James E. Anderson & Eric van Wincoop, 2004.
Journal of Economic Literature,
American Economic Association, vol. 42(3), pages 691-751, September.
- Frankel, Jeffrey & Stein, Ernesto & Wei, Shang-jin, 1995. "Trading blocs and the Americas: The natural, the unnatural, and the super-natural," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 47(1), pages 61-95, June.
- Elhanan Helpman & Marc Melitz & Yona Rubinstein, 2006. "Trading Partners and Trading Volumes," DEGIT Conference Papers c011_022, DEGIT, Dynamics, Economic Growth, and International Trade.
- Miriam Manchin, 2006. "Preference Utilisation and Tariff Reduction in EU Imports from ACP Countries," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 29(9), pages 1243-1266, 09.
- Arvind Subramanian & Shang-Jin Wei, 2003.
"The WTO Promotes Trade, Strongly But Unevenly,"
NBER Working Papers
10024, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Laszlo Matyas, 1997. "Proper Econometric Specification of the Gravity Model," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 20(3), pages 363-368, 05.
- Andrew K. Rose, 2002.
"Do We Really KNow that the WTO Increases Trade?,"
182002, Hong Kong Institute for Monetary Research.
- Rose, Andrew K, 2003.
"Which International Institutions Promote International Trade?,"
CEPR Discussion Papers
3764, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Andrew Rose, 2005. "Which International Institutions Promote International Trade?," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 13(4), pages 682-698, 09.
- Piermartini, Roberta & Teh, Robert, 2005. "Demystifying modelling methods for trade policy," WTO Discussion Papers 10, World Trade Organization (WTO), Economic Research and Statistics Division.
- Rikhil Bhavnani & Natalia T. Tamirisa & Arvind Subramanian & David T. Coe, 2002. "The Missing Globalization Puzzle," IMF Working Papers 02/171, International Monetary Fund.
- Gabriel J. Felbermayr & Wilhelm Kohler, 2004.
"Exploring the Intensive and Extensive Margins of World Trade,"
CESifo Working Paper Series
1276, CESifo Group Munich.
- Gabriel J. Felbermayr & Wilhelm Kohler, 2006. "Exploring the Intensive and Extensive Margins of World Trade," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer, vol. 142(4), pages 642-674, December.
- Felbermayr, Gabriel & Kohler, Wilhelm K., 2006. "Exploring the intensive and extensive margins of world trade," Munich Reprints in Economics 20610, University of Munich, Department of Economics.
- Nouve, Kofi & Staatz, John M., 2003. "Has Agoa Increased Agricultural Exports From Sub-Saharan Africa To The United States?," Staff Papers 11573, Michigan State University, Department of Agricultural, Food, and Resource Economics.
- Davidson, Russell & MacKinnon, James G., 1993. "Estimation and Inference in Econometrics," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780195060119.
- Baltagi, Badi H. & Egger, Peter & Pfaffermayr, Michael, 2003. "A generalized design for bilateral trade flow models," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 80(3), pages 391-397, September.
- Jean-Christophe Bureau & Raja Chakir & Jacques Gallezot, 2007.
"The Utilisation of EU and US Trade Preferences for Developing Countries in the Agri-Food Sector,"
The Institute for International Integration Studies Discussion Paper Series
- Bureau, Jean-Christophe & Chakir, Raja & Gallezot, Jacques, 2006. "The Utilisation of EU and US Trade Preferences for Developing Countries in the Agri-Food Sector," Working Papers 18867, TRADEAG - Agricultural Trade Agreements.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ags:tragwp:7294. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (AgEcon Search)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.