Projecting the World Economy to 2050: Agriculture in the Economy-wide GTAP Model
Recent analyses of the possible adverse effects of climate change and policy responses on agriculture and mining have raised food and energy security concerns in both rich and poorer countries. Analysing possible effects of ways of dealing with those concerns requires first projecting the world economy forward to 2050 and beyond. This paper provides as background a set of projections to 2050, drawing on the global economy-wide model known as GTAP. The projection is calibrated to ensure the real prices of primary products remain broadly unchanged from their levels in the model's base year of 2004. Alternative scenarios could have been calibrated to show (a) rising real prices for both food and energy raw materials (consistent with forecasts of several international agencies), by assuming some slowdown in productivity growth in primary sectors, or (b) declining real prices for agricultural and mining products (consistent with the experience of most of the 20th century), by assuming somewhat faster productivity growth in primary sectors. The set of projections shown for 2030 and 2050 is thus an intermediate set. The key impacts on international prices, agricultural self-sufficiency, sectoral shares of national economies and national shares of the global economy are highlighted. The paper concludes with implications for R&D spending and research policy.
|Date of creation:||Mar 2011|
|Date of revision:|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: |
Phone: (+ 61 8) 8303 5672
Fax: (+ 61 8) 8223 1460
Web page: http://www.adelaide.edu.au/cies/
More information through EDIRC
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Hertel, Thomas & David Hummels & Maros Ivanic & Roman Keeney, 2003.
"How Confident Can We Be in CGE-Based Assessments of Free Trade Agreements?,"
GTAP Working Papers
1324, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Department of Agricultural Economics, Purdue University.
- Hertel, Thomas & Hummels, David & Ivanic, Maros & Keeney, Roman, 2007. "How confident can we be of CGE-based assessments of Free Trade Agreements?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 24(4), pages 611-635, July.
- Thomas Hertel & David Hummels & Maros Ivanic & Roman Keeney, 2004. "How Confident Can We Be in CGE-Based Assessments of Free Trade Agreements?," NBER Working Papers 10477, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Anderson, Kym, 2008.
"Distorted Agricultural Incentives and Economic Development: Asia’s Experience,"
CEPR Discussion Papers
6914, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Kym Anderson, 2009. "Distorted Agricultural Incentives and Economic Development: Asia's Experience," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 32(3), pages 351-384, 03.
- Martin, Will & Mitra, Devashish, 2001. "Productivity Growth and Convergence in Agriculture versus Manufacturing," Economic Development and Cultural Change, University of Chicago Press, vol. 49(2), pages 403-22, January.
- Anderson, Kym & Kurzweil, Marianne & Martin, Will & Sandri, Damiano & Valenzuela, Ernesto, 2008.
"Measuring distortions to agricultural incentives, revisited,"
World Trade Review,
Cambridge University Press, vol. 7(04), pages 675-704, October.
- Anderson, Kym & Kurzweil, Marianne & Martin, Will & Sandri, Damiano & Valenzuela, Ernesto, 2008. "Measuring distortions to agricultural incentives, revisited," Policy Research Working Paper Series 4612, The World Bank.
- Anderson, Kym & Kurzweil, Marianne & Martin, Will & Sandri, Damiano & Valenzuela, Ernesto, 2008. "Measuring Distortions to Agricultural Incentives, Revisited," CEPR Discussion Papers 6924, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Beddow, Jason M. & Pardey, Philip G. & Alston, Julian M., 2009. "The Shifting Global Patterns of Agricultural Productivity," Choices, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 24(4).
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:adl:cieswp:2011-01. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Dmitriy Kvasov)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.