Climate Change and Food Security to 2050: A Global Economy-wide Perspective
Recent analyses of the possible adverse effects of climate change on agriculture in developing countries have raised food security concerns, especially for farm households whose crop productivity is expected to fall. The present study uses the GTAP global economy-wide model to capture at the same time the expected positive effects on temperate zone crop productivity, which will more or less offset the upward pressure on farm product prices from yield falls in developing countries. Also modelled is an expected adverse effect of higher temperatures and humidity on the productivity of unskilled workers in the tropics, but since they work in nonfarm as well as farm activities the net effect of that shock on agriculture’s competitiveness is an empirical matter. The results suggest there may be less cause for concern over food security than some earlier studies indicated, but the degrees of uncertainty involved in such modelling are sufficient to warrant a precautionary approach.
|Date of creation:||2011|
|Date of revision:|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: |
Phone: 0409 032 338
Web page: http://www.aares.info/
More information through EDIRC
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Hertel, Thomas, . "Global Trade Analysis: Modeling and applications," GTAP Books 7685, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Department of Agricultural Economics, Purdue University.
- Martin, Will & Mitra, Devashish, 2001. "Productivity Growth and Convergence in Agriculture versus Manufacturing," Economic Development and Cultural Change, University of Chicago Press, vol. 49(2), pages 403-22, January.
- Anderson, Kym & Kurzweil, Marianne & Martin, Will & Sandri, Damiano & Valenzuela, Ernesto, 2008.
"Measuring Distortions to Agricultural Incentives, Revisited,"
CEPR Discussion Papers
6924, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Anderson, Kym & Kurzweil, Marianne & Martin, Will & Sandri, Damiano & Valenzuela, Ernesto, 2008. "Measuring distortions to agricultural incentives, revisited," World Trade Review, Cambridge University Press, vol. 7(04), pages 675-704, October.
- Anderson, Kym & Kurzweil, Marianne & Martin, Will & Sandri, Damiano & Valenzuela, Ernesto, 2008. "Measuring distortions to agricultural incentives, revisited," Policy Research Working Paper Series 4612, The World Bank.
- Beddow, Jason M. & Pardey, Philip G. & Alston, Julian M., 2009. "The Shifting Global Patterns of Agricultural Productivity," Choices, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 24(4).
- Hertel, Thomas & David Hummels & Maros Ivanic & Roman Keeney, 2003.
"How Confident Can We Be in CGE-Based Assessments of Free Trade Agreements?,"
GTAP Working Papers
1324, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Department of Agricultural Economics, Purdue University.
- Hertel, Thomas & Hummels, David & Ivanic, Maros & Keeney, Roman, 2007. "How confident can we be of CGE-based assessments of Free Trade Agreements?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 24(4), pages 611-635, July.
- Thomas Hertel & David Hummels & Maros Ivanic & Roman Keeney, 2004. "How Confident Can We Be in CGE-Based Assessments of Free Trade Agreements?," NBER Working Papers 10477, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Alvaro Calzadilla & Katrin Rehdanz & Richard Betts & Pete Falloon & Andy Wiltshire & Richard S.J. Tol, 2010.
"Climate Change Impacts on Global Agriculture,"
FNU-185, Research unit Sustainability and Global Change, Hamburg University, revised Apr 2010.
- repec:cup:cbooks:9780521744447 is not listed on IDEAS
- Mattoo, Aaditya & Subramanian, Arvind & van der Mensbrugghe, Dominique & He, Jianwu, 2009.
"Reconciling climate change and trade policy,"
Policy Research Working Paper Series
5123, The World Bank.
- Aaditya Mattoo & Arvind Subramanian & Dominique van der Mensbrugghe & Jianwu He, 2009. "Reconciling Climate Change and Trade Policy," Working Paper Series WP09-15, Peterson Institute for International Economics.
- Aaditya Mattoo & Arvind Subramanian & Dominique van der Mensbrugghe & Jianwu He, 2009. "Reconciling Climate Change and Trade Policy," Working Papers 189, Center for Global Development.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ags:aare11:100531. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (AgEcon Search)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.