IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/taf/conmgt/v20y2002i4p343-351.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

A real options approach to valuing strategic flexibility in uncertain construction projects

Author

Listed:
  • David Ford
  • Diane Lander
  • John Voyer

Abstract

To maximize project value, managers of construction projects must recognize, plan for and strategically manage uncertainty. Current construction planning, estimating, and management practices regarding uncertainty can undervalue projects by failing to exploit opportunities to increase project value, as well as minimize risks. Dynamic uncertainties are described as project conditions that cannot be resolved adequately through improved description or planning for pre-project strategy selection. A real options approach is proposed for proactively using strategic flexibility to recognize and capture project values hidden in dynamic uncertainties. An example of a proposal for a toll road project demonstrates a method of valuing managerial flexibility to evaluate and select strategies. Impacts of real options in other domains, along with this example, are the basis for concluding that using a structured real options approach in construction management can increase returns through improved project planning and management. Potential impacts of the use of real options are discussed, and challenges in valuing real options in construction projects are identified as the basis for future research.

Suggested Citation

  • David Ford & Diane Lander & John Voyer, 2002. "A real options approach to valuing strategic flexibility in uncertain construction projects," Construction Management and Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 20(4), pages 343-351.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:conmgt:v:20:y:2002:i:4:p:343-351
    DOI: 10.1080/01446190210125572
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/01446190210125572
    Download Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1080/01446190210125572?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Lenos Trigeorgis, 1993. "Real Options and Interactions With Financial Flexibility," Financial Management, Financial Management Association, vol. 22(3), Fall.
    2. Malik Ranasinghe, 1999. "Private sector participation in infrastructure projects: a methodology to analyse viability of BOT," Construction Management and Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 17(5), pages 613-623.
    3. Kemna, A. G. Z. & Vorst, A. C. F., 1990. "A pricing method for options based on average asset values," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 14(1), pages 113-129, March.
    4. Lander, Diane M. & Pinches, George E., 1998. "Challenges to the Practical Implementation of Modeling and Valuing Real Options," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 38(3, Part 2), pages 537-567.
    5. Stewart C. Myers, 1984. "Finance Theory and Financial Strategy," Interfaces, INFORMS, vol. 14(1), pages 126-137, February.
    6. Black, Fischer & Scholes, Myron S, 1973. "The Pricing of Options and Corporate Liabilities," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 81(3), pages 637-654, May-June.
    7. Cox, John C. & Ross, Stephen A. & Rubinstein, Mark, 1979. "Option pricing: A simplified approach," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 7(3), pages 229-263, September.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Biljana Rakic & Tamara Radenovic, 2014. "Real Options Methodology In Public-Private Partnership Projects Valuation," Economic Annals, Faculty of Economics and Business, University of Belgrade, vol. 59(200), pages 91-114, January –.
    2. Luis Aguilar & Juan David González-Ruiz & Sergio Botero, 2022. "Shareholder Option Valuation in Mezzanine Financing Applied to CO 2 Reduction in Sustainable Infrastructure Projects: Application to a Tunnel Road in Medellin, Colombia," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(12), pages 1-13, June.
    3. Marzouk, Mohamed & Ali, Mohamed, 2018. "Mitigating risks in wastewater treatment plant PPPs using minimum revenue guarantee and real options," Utilities Policy, Elsevier, vol. 53(C), pages 121-133.
    4. Power, Gabriel J. & Burris, Mark & Vadali, Sharada & Vedenov, Dmitry, 2016. "Valuation of strategic options in public–private partnerships," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 90(C), pages 50-68.
    5. Cesare Dosi & Michele Moretto, 2015. "Procurement with Unenforceable Contract Time and the Law of Liquidated Damages," The Journal of Law, Economics, and Organization, Oxford University Press, vol. 31(1), pages 160-186.
    6. Deng, Qianli & Jiang, Xianglin & Cui, Qingbin & Zhang, Limao, 2015. "Strategic design of cost savings guarantee in energy performance contracting under uncertainty," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 139(C), pages 68-80.
    7. Martine Van den Boomen & Sjoerd Van der Meulen & Jonathan Van Ekris & Roel Spanjers & Olle Ten Voorde & Janwim Mulder & Peter Blommaart, 2021. "Optimized Expansion Strategy for a Hydrogen Pipe Network in the Port of Rotterdam with Compound Real Options Analysis," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(16), pages 1-23, August.
    8. Engelen, Peter-Jan & Kool, Clemens & Li, Ye, 2016. "A barrier options approach to modeling project failure: The case of hydrogen fuel infrastructure," Resource and Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 43(C), pages 33-56.
    9. Bos, Frits & Zwaneveld, Peter, 2014. "Reële opties en de waarde van flexibiliteit bij natte infrastructuur [Real options analysis and the value of flexibility for (wet) infrastructure]," MPRA Paper 61506, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    10. João Adelino Ribeiro & Paulo Jorge Pereira & Elísio Brandão, 2013. "Volume Uncertainty in Construction Projects: a Real Options Approach," CEF.UP Working Papers 1309, Universidade do Porto, Faculdade de Economia do Porto.
    11. Mahdi Mattar & Charles Cheah, 2006. "Valuing large engineering projects under uncertainty: private risk effects and real options," Construction Management and Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 24(8), pages 847-860.
    12. Cesare Dosi & Michele Moretto, 2017. "Cost Uncertainty and Time Overruns in Public Procurement: a Scoring Auction for a Contract with Delay Penalties," Working Papers 2017.02, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei.
    13. Di Corato, Luca & Dosi, Cesare & Moretto, Michele, 2018. "Multidimensional auctions for long-term procurement contracts with early-exit options: The case of conservation contracts," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 267(1), pages 368-380.
    14. Carlos Contreras & Julio Angulo, 2017. "Valuing Governmental Support in Road PPPs," Hacienda Pública Española / Review of Public Economics, IEF, vol. 223(4), pages 37-66, December.
    15. João Adelino Ribeiro & Paulo Jorge Pereira & Elisio Moreira Brandão, 2020. "A real options approach to optimal bidding in construction projects considering volume uncertainty," Managerial and Decision Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 41(4), pages 631-640, June.
    16. Lee, Hyounkyu & Park, Taeil & Kim, Byungil & Kim, Kyeongseok & Kim, Hyoungkwan, 2013. "A real option-based model for promoting sustainable energy projects under the clean development mechanism," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 54(C), pages 360-368.
    17. Di Corato, Luca & Dosi, Cesare & Moretto, Michele, 2015. "Multidimensional auctions for long-term procurement contracts under the threat of early exit: the case of conservation auctions," Working Paper Series 2015:6, Swedish University of Agricultural Sciences, Department Economics.
    18. Juan Pineiro-Chousa & Marcos Vizcaíno-González, 2020. "A mathematical model for the role of third party funding in reputation building of academic institutions," Review of Managerial Science, Springer, vol. 14(2), pages 365-377, April.
    19. Cesare Dosi & Michele Moretto, 2017. "Cost Uncertainty and Time Overruns in Public Procurement: a Scoring Auction for a Contract with Delay Penalties," Working Papers 2017.02, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei.
    20. Pineiro-Chousa, Juan & Vizcaíno-González, Marcos, 2016. "A quantum derivation of a reputational risk premium," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 47(C), pages 304-309.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Douglas A. Bodner & William B. Rouse, 2007. "Understanding R&D value creation with organizational simulation," Systems Engineering, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 10(1), pages 64-82, March.
    2. Lim, Terence & Lo, Andrew W. & Merton, Robert C. & Scholes, Myron S., 2006. "The Derivatives Sourcebook," Foundations and Trends(R) in Finance, now publishers, vol. 1(5–6), pages 365-572, April.
    3. Twine, Edgar E. & Omore, Amos & Githinji, Julius, 2018. "Uncertainty in milk production by smallholders in Tanzania and its implications for investment," International Food and Agribusiness Management Review, International Food and Agribusiness Management Association, vol. 21(1).
    4. Savolainen, Jyrki, 2016. "Real options in metal mining project valuation: Review of literature," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 50(C), pages 49-65.
    5. Jan Vlachý, 2009. "Solving the Capacity Optimization Problem under Demand Uncertainty," Romanian Economic Journal, Department of International Business and Economics from the Academy of Economic Studies Bucharest, vol. 12(34), pages 97-116, (4).
    6. Chi-Yo Huang & Hong-Ling Hsieh & Hueiling Chen, 2020. "Evaluating the Investment Projects of Spinal Medical Device Firms Using the Real Option and DANP-mV Based MCDM Methods," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 17(9), pages 1-41, May.
    7. Ulrich Pape & Stephan Schmidt-Tank, 2005. "Valuing Joint Ventures Using Real Options," Finance 0503030, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    8. Pringles, Rolando & Olsina, Fernando & Penizzotto, Franco, 2020. "Valuation of defer and relocation options in photovoltaic generation investments by a stochastic simulation-based method," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 151(C), pages 846-864.
    9. Madlener, Reinhard & Stoverink, Simon, 2012. "Power plant investments in the Turkish electricity sector: A real options approach taking into account market liberalization," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 97(C), pages 124-134.
    10. Twine, Edgar E. & Kiiza, Barnabas & Bashaasha, Bernard, 2015. "The Flexible Accelerator Model of Investment: An Application to Ugandan Tea- Processing Firms," African Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, African Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 10(1), pages 1-15, March.
    11. Morgan, Horatio M. & Ngwenyama, Ojelanki, 2015. "Real options, learning cost and timing software upgrades: Towards an integrative model for enterprise software upgrade decision analysis," International Journal of Production Economics, Elsevier, vol. 168(C), pages 211-223.
    12. P. Pellizzari, 1998. "Efficient Monte Carlo Pricing of Basket Options," Finance 9801001, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    13. Ardian, Aldin & Kumral, Mustafa, 2020. "Incorporating stochastic correlations into mining project evaluation using the Jacobi process," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 65(C).
    14. Miller, Luke & Bertus, Mark, 2005. "License valuation in the aerospace industry: A real options approach," Review of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 14(3-4), pages 225-239.
    15. Pringles, Rolando & Olsina, Fernando & Garcés, Francisco, 2014. "Designing regulatory frameworks for merchant transmission investments by real options analysis," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 67(C), pages 272-280.
    16. Schachter, J.A. & Mancarella, P., 2016. "A critical review of Real Options thinking for valuing investment flexibility in Smart Grids and low carbon energy systems," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 56(C), pages 261-271.
    17. Onno Lint & Enrico Pennings & Martin Natter, 1999. "Optionsmanagement in F&E: Eine Fallstudie," Schmalenbach Journal of Business Research, Springer, vol. 51(10), pages 990-1006, October.
    18. Antonio Di Bari, 2020. "A Real Options Approach to Valuate Solar Energy Investment with Public Authority Incentives: The Italian Case," Energies, MDPI, vol. 13(16), pages 1-15, August.
    19. Hatem Ben-Ameur & Michèle Breton & Pierre L'Ecuyer, 2002. "A Dynamic Programming Procedure for Pricing American-Style Asian Options," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 48(5), pages 625-643, May.
    20. Rojas-Bernal, Alejandro & Villamizar-Villegas, Mauricio, 2021. "Pricing the exotic: Path-dependent American options with stochastic barriers," Latin American Journal of Central Banking (previously Monetaria), Elsevier, vol. 2(1).

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:taf:conmgt:v:20:y:2002:i:4:p:343-351. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Chris Longhurst (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.tandfonline.com/RCME20 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.