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A real options approach to valuing strategic flexibility in uncertain construction projects

Author

Listed:
  • David Ford
  • Diane Lander
  • John Voyer

Abstract

To maximize project value, managers of construction projects must recognize, plan for and strategically manage uncertainty. Current construction planning, estimating, and management practices regarding uncertainty can undervalue projects by failing to exploit opportunities to increase project value, as well as minimize risks. Dynamic uncertainties are described as project conditions that cannot be resolved adequately through improved description or planning for pre-project strategy selection. A real options approach is proposed for proactively using strategic flexibility to recognize and capture project values hidden in dynamic uncertainties. An example of a proposal for a toll road project demonstrates a method of valuing managerial flexibility to evaluate and select strategies. Impacts of real options in other domains, along with this example, are the basis for concluding that using a structured real options approach in construction management can increase returns through improved project planning and management. Potential impacts of the use of real options are discussed, and challenges in valuing real options in construction projects are identified as the basis for future research.

Suggested Citation

  • David Ford & Diane Lander & John Voyer, 2002. "A real options approach to valuing strategic flexibility in uncertain construction projects," Construction Management and Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 20(4), pages 343-351.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:conmgt:v:20:y:2002:i:4:p:343-351
    DOI: 10.1080/01446190210125572
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

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    3. Cesare Dosi & Michele Moretto, 2015. "Procurement with Unenforceable Contract Time and the Law of Liquidated Damages," The Journal of Law, Economics, and Organization, Oxford University Press, vol. 31(1), pages 160-186.
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    5. Bos, Frits & Zwaneveld, Peter, 2014. "Reële opties en de waarde van flexibiliteit bij natte infrastructuur [Real options analysis and the value of flexibility for (wet) infrastructure]," MPRA Paper 61506, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    6. João Adelino Ribeiro & Paulo Jorge Pereira & Elísio Brandão, 2013. "Volume Uncertainty in Construction Projects: a Real Options Approach," CEF.UP Working Papers 1309, Universidade do Porto, Faculdade de Economia do Porto.
    7. Mahdi Mattar & Charles Cheah, 2006. "Valuing large engineering projects under uncertainty: private risk effects and real options," Construction Management and Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 24(8), pages 847-860.
    8. Di Corato, Luca & Dosi, Cesare & Moretto, Michele, 2018. "Multidimensional auctions for long-term procurement contracts with early-exit options: The case of conservation contracts," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 267(1), pages 368-380.
    9. Carlos Contreras & Julio Angulo, 2017. "Valuing Governmental Support in Road PPPs," Hacienda Pública Española / Review of Public Economics, IEF, vol. 223(4), pages 37-66, December.
    10. João Adelino Ribeiro & Paulo Jorge Pereira & Elisio Moreira Brandão, 2020. "A real options approach to optimal bidding in construction projects considering volume uncertainty," Managerial and Decision Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 41(4), pages 631-640, June.
    11. Di Corato, Luca & Dosi, Cesare & Moretto, Michele, 2015. "Multidimensional auctions for long-term procurement contracts under the threat of early exit: the case of conservation auctions," Working Paper Series 2015:6, Swedish University of Agricultural Sciences, Department Economics.
    12. Cesare Dosi & Michele Moretto, 2017. "Cost Uncertainty and Time Overruns in Public Procurement: a Scoring Auction for a Contract with Delay Penalties," Working Papers 2017.02, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei.
    13. Biljana Rakic & Tamara Radenovic, 2014. "Real Options Methodology In Public-Private Partnership Projects Valuation," Economic Annals, Faculty of Economics and Business, University of Belgrade, vol. 59(200), pages 91-114, January –.
    14. Luis Aguilar & Juan David González-Ruiz & Sergio Botero, 2022. "Shareholder Option Valuation in Mezzanine Financing Applied to CO 2 Reduction in Sustainable Infrastructure Projects: Application to a Tunnel Road in Medellin, Colombia," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(12), pages 1-13, June.
    15. Deng, Qianli & Jiang, Xianglin & Cui, Qingbin & Zhang, Limao, 2015. "Strategic design of cost savings guarantee in energy performance contracting under uncertainty," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 139(C), pages 68-80.
    16. Martine Van den Boomen & Sjoerd Van der Meulen & Jonathan Van Ekris & Roel Spanjers & Olle Ten Voorde & Janwim Mulder & Peter Blommaart, 2021. "Optimized Expansion Strategy for a Hydrogen Pipe Network in the Port of Rotterdam with Compound Real Options Analysis," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(16), pages 1-23, August.
    17. Cesare Dosi & Michele Moretto, 2017. "Cost Uncertainty and Time Overruns in Public Procurement: a Scoring Auction for a Contract with Delay Penalties," Working Papers 2017.02, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei.
    18. Lee, Hyounkyu & Park, Taeil & Kim, Byungil & Kim, Kyeongseok & Kim, Hyoungkwan, 2013. "A real option-based model for promoting sustainable energy projects under the clean development mechanism," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 54(C), pages 360-368.
    19. Juan Pineiro-Chousa & Marcos Vizcaíno-González, 2020. "A mathematical model for the role of third party funding in reputation building of academic institutions," Review of Managerial Science, Springer, vol. 14(2), pages 365-377, April.
    20. Pineiro-Chousa, Juan & Vizcaíno-González, Marcos, 2016. "A quantum derivation of a reputational risk premium," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 47(C), pages 304-309.

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