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Waiting for election season

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  • Fouad Pervez

Abstract

Why do countries frequently wait long periods of time before initiating disputes at the World Trade Organization (WTO) over antidumping duties? Since the WTO usually rules in favor of the complainant, countries should initiate disputes as quickly as possible to limit the time their domestic industries are subject to these duties. However, countries often wait years before initiating a dispute. I argue that government leaders time disputes around their elections to gain political support from large domestic industries, particularly in developing countries with fewer economic resources and countries with highly contested domestic politics, where even small electoral gains are crucial. Using data on all WTO disputes over antidumping duties, I run a discrete time hazard model and find evidence that countries are more likely to bring up a dispute the closer they get to elections. As expected, the effect is particularly strong for divided governments and developing countries as elections draw near. Copyright Springer Science+Business Media New York 2015

Suggested Citation

  • Fouad Pervez, 2015. "Waiting for election season," The Review of International Organizations, Springer, vol. 10(2), pages 265-303, June.
  • Handle: RePEc:spr:revint:v:10:y:2015:i:2:p:265-303
    DOI: 10.1007/s11558-015-9221-0
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    Cited by:

    1. Rotunno, Lorenzo, 2016. "Political stability and trade agreements: Evidence for ‘endgame FTAs’," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 45(C), pages 133-148.
    2. Conconi, Paola & DeRemer, David R. & Kirchsteiger, Georg & Trimarchi, Lorenzo & Zanardi, Maurizio, 2017. "Suspiciously timed trade disputes," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 105(C), pages 57-76.
    3. Jeheung Ryu & Randall W. Stone, 2018. "Plaintiffs by proxy: A firm-level approach to WTO dispute resolution," The Review of International Organizations, Springer, vol. 13(2), pages 273-308, June.
    4. Garriga, Ana Carolina & Rodriguez, Cesar M., 2020. "More effective than we thought: Central bank independence and inflation in developing countries," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 85(C), pages 87-105.
    5. Conconi, Paola & DeRemer, David R. & Kirchsteiger, Georg & Trimarchi, Lorenzo & Zanardi, Maurizio, 2017. "Suspiciously timed trade disputes," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 105(C), pages 57-76.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Antidumping duties; WTO; Trade disputes; Electoral politics; International development; F5; F0; F1;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F5 - International Economics - - International Relations, National Security, and International Political Economy
    • F0 - International Economics - - General
    • F1 - International Economics - - Trade

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