IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/pal/imfecr/v59y2011i2p306-339.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Hot Money and Serial Financial Crises

Author

Listed:
  • Anton Korinek

Abstract

When one region of the world economy experiences a financial crisis, the world-wide availability of investment opportunities declines. As global investors search for new destinations for their capital, other regions will experience inflows of hot money. However, large capital inflows make the recipient countries more vulnerable to future adverse shocks, creating the risk of serial financial crises. This paper develops a formal model of such flows of hot money and the vulnerability to serial financial crises. It analyzes the role for macro-prudential policies to lean against the wind of such capital flows so as to offset the externalities that occur during financial crises. Summarizing the results of our model in a simple policy rule, the paper finds that a 1 percentage point increase in a country's capital inflows/GDP ratio warrants a 0.87 percentage point increase in the optimal level of capital inflow taxation.

Suggested Citation

  • Anton Korinek, 2011. "Hot Money and Serial Financial Crises," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 59(2), pages 306-339, June.
  • Handle: RePEc:pal:imfecr:v:59:y:2011:i:2:p:306-339
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.palgrave-journals.com/imfer/journal/v59/n2/pdf/imfer201110a.pdf
    File Function: Link to full text PDF
    Download Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers.

    File URL: http://www.palgrave-journals.com/imfer/journal/v59/n2/full/imfer201110a.html
    File Function: Link to full text HTML
    Download Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers.

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Anton Korinek & Agustin Roitman & Carlos A. Végh, 2010. "Decoupling and Recoupling," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 100(2), pages 393-397, May.
    2. Javier Bianchi, 2011. "Overborrowing and Systemic Externalities in the Business Cycle," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 101(7), pages 3400-3426, December.
    3. Carmen Reinhart & Vincent Reinhart, 2009. "Capital Flow Bonanzas: An Encompassing View of the Past and Present," NBER Chapters,in: NBER International Seminar on Macroeconomics 2008, pages 9-62 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    4. Michael B Devereux & James Yetman, 2010. "Financial deleveraging and the international transmission of shocks," BIS Papers chapters,in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), The international financial crisis and policy challenges in Asia and the Pacific, volume 52, pages 274-298 Bank for International Settlements.
    5. James Tobin, 1978. "A Proposal for International Monetary Reform," Eastern Economic Journal, Eastern Economic Association, vol. 4(3-4), pages 153-159, Jul/Oct.
    6. Carmen M. Reinhart & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 2014. "This Time is Different: A Panoramic View of Eight Centuries of Financial Crises," Annals of Economics and Finance, Society for AEF, vol. 15(2), pages 1065-1188, November.
    7. Carmen M. Reinhart & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 2009. "Varieties of Crises and Their Dates," Introductory Chapters,in: This Time Is Different: Eight Centuries of Financial Folly Princeton University Press.
    8. Anton Korinek, 2011. "Systemic Risk-Taking: Amplification Effects, Externalities, and Regulatory Responses," NFI Working Papers 2011-WP-13, Indiana State University, Scott College of Business, Networks Financial Institute.
    9. Kosuke Aoki & Gianluca Benigno & Nobuhiro Kiyotaki, 2009. "Capital Flows and Asset Prices," NBER Chapters,in: NBER International Seminar on Macroeconomics 2007, pages 175-216 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    10. Nguyen, Ha, 2010. "Credit constraints and the north-south transmission of crises," Policy Research Working Paper Series 5408, The World Bank.
    11. Nicolas Magud & Carmen Reinhart & Kenneth Rogoff, 2005. "Capital Controls: Myth and Reality A Portfolio Balance Approach to Capital Controls," University of Oregon Economics Department Working Papers 2006-10, University of Oregon Economics Department.
    12. Enrique G. Mendoza, 2001. "The benefits of dollarization when stabilization policy lacks credibility and financial markets are imperfect," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, pages 440-481.
    13. Kristin J. Forbes, 2007. "The Microeconomic Evidence on Capital Controls: No Free Lunch," NBER Chapters,in: Capital Controls and Capital Flows in Emerging Economies: Policies, Practices and Consequences, pages 171-202 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    14. Frankel, Jeffrey A. & Rose, Andrew K., 1996. "Currency crashes in emerging markets: An empirical treatment," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 41(3-4), pages 351-366, November.
    15. Korinek, Anton, 2011. "Foreign currency debt, risk premia and macroeconomic volatility," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 55(3), pages 371-385, April.
    16. Ricardo J. Caballero & Arvind Krishnamurthy, 2003. "Excessive Dollar Debt: Financial Development and Underinsurance," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 58(2), pages 867-894, April.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. repec:bla:ausecp:v:55:y:2016:i:4:p:451-475 is not listed on IDEAS
    2. Julian Parra-Polania & Carmiña Vargas, 2015. "Optimal tax on capital inflows discriminated by debt-risk profile," International Tax and Public Finance, Springer;International Institute of Public Finance, vol. 22(1), pages 102-119, February.
    3. Tong, Eric, 2017. "US monetary policy and global financial stability," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 39(PA), pages 466-485.
    4. Engel, Charles, 2016. "Macroprudential policy under high capital mobility: policy implications from an academic perspective," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 162-172.
    5. Steiner, Andreas, 2014. "Reserve accumulation and financial crises: From individual protection to systemic risk," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 70(C), pages 126-144.
    6. repec:eee:reveco:v:50:y:2017:i:c:p:8-22 is not listed on IDEAS
    7. Anton Korinek & Enrique G. Mendoza, 2013. "From Sudden Stops to Fisherian Deflation: Quantitative Theory and Policy Implications," NBER Working Papers 19362, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    8. Joseph E. Stiglitz, 2011. "Rethinking Macroeconomics: What Failed, And How To Repair It," Journal of the European Economic Association, European Economic Association, vol. 9(4), pages 591-645, August.
    9. Anton Korinek, 2011. "The New Economics of Capital Controls Imposed for Prudential Reasons+L4888," IMF Working Papers 11/298, International Monetary Fund.
    10. Fuertes, Ana-Maria & Phylaktis, Kate & Yan, Cheng, 2016. "Hot money in bank credit flows to emerging markets during the banking globalization era," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 60(C), pages 29-52.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:pal:imfecr:v:59:y:2011:i:2:p:306-339. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Sonal Shukla) or (Rebekah McClure). General contact details of provider: http://www.palgrave-journals.com/ .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.