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The macroeconomic effects of a carbon tax to meet the U.S. Paris agreement target: The role of firm creation and technology adoption

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  • Finkelstein Shapiro, Alan
  • Metcalf, Gilbert E.

Abstract

We analyze the labor market and aggregate effects of a carbon tax in a framework with pollution externalities and equilibrium unemployment. Our model incorporates labor force participation and two margins of adjustment influenced by carbon taxes: (1) firm creation and (2) green production-technology adoption. A carbon-tax policy that reduces carbon emissions by 35 percent—broadly consistent with Biden Administration’s new Paris Agreement commitment—can generate mild positive long-run effects on consumption and output, an expansion in the number and fraction of firms that use green technologies, and greater labor force participation, with marginal changes in the unemployment rate. In the short term, the adjustment to a higher carbon tax need not be accompanied by losses in output and consumption or a substantial increase in unemployment. Abstracting from green technology adoption implies that the same policy has substantial adverse short- and long-term effects on labor income, consumption, and output. Our findings highlight the importance of considering endogenous technology adoption in assessments of the labor market and aggregate effects of a carbon tax.

Suggested Citation

  • Finkelstein Shapiro, Alan & Metcalf, Gilbert E., 2023. "The macroeconomic effects of a carbon tax to meet the U.S. Paris agreement target: The role of firm creation and technology adoption," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 218(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:pubeco:v:218:y:2023:i:c:s004727272200202x
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jpubeco.2022.104800
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Environmental and fiscal policy; Carbon tax; Endogenous firm entry; Green technology adoption; Search frictions; Unemployment; Labor force participation;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E20 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)
    • E24 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Employment; Unemployment; Wages; Intergenerational Income Distribution; Aggregate Human Capital; Aggregate Labor Productivity
    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy; Modern Monetary Theory
    • H23 - Public Economics - - Taxation, Subsidies, and Revenue - - - Externalities; Redistributive Effects; Environmental Taxes and Subsidies
    • O33 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Innovation; Research and Development; Technological Change; Intellectual Property Rights - - - Technological Change: Choices and Consequences; Diffusion Processes
    • Q52 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Pollution Control Adoption and Costs; Distributional Effects; Employment Effects
    • Q55 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Environmental Economics: Technological Innovation

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