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Monetary policy across inflation regimes

Author

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  • Gargiulo, Valeria
  • Matthes, Christian
  • Petrova, Katerina

Abstract

Does the effect of monetary policy depend on the prevailing level of inflation? In order to answer this question, we construct a parsimonious nonlinear time series model that allows for inflation regimes. We find that the effects of monetary policy are markedly different when year-over-year inflation exceeds 5.5%. Below this threshold, changes in monetary policy have a short-lived effect on prices, but no effect on the unemployment rate, giving a potential explanation for the recent “soft-landing” in the United States. Above this threshold, the effects of monetary policy surprises on both inflation and unemployment can be larger and longer lasting.

Suggested Citation

  • Gargiulo, Valeria & Matthes, Christian & Petrova, Katerina, 2025. "Monetary policy across inflation regimes," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 178(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:eecrev:v:178:y:2025:i:c:s001429212500159x
    DOI: 10.1016/j.euroecorev.2025.105109
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    Cited by:

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    2. Alicia Aguilar & Adriana Lojschová & Carlos Canizares Martınez, 2025. "Non-linear effects of monetary policy shocks on housing: evidence from a CESEE country," Working and Discussion Papers WP 1/2026, Research Department, National Bank of Slovakia.
    3. Ding Dong & Zheng Liu & Pengfei Wang & Min Wei, 2024. "Inflation Disagreement Weakens the Power of Monetary Policy," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2024-094, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    4. Carlos Cañizares Martínez & Adriana Lojschová & Alicia Aguilar, 2026. "Non-linear effects of monetary policy shocks on housing: evidence from a CESEE country," BCL working papers 202, Central Bank of Luxembourg.
    5. Zhu, Zixiang & Wen, Yake & Zhou, Weimin & Liu, Xintong, 2025. "The state-dependent effects of oil supply news shocks," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 149(C).
    6. Yoosoon Chang & Steven N. Durlauf & Bo Hu & Joon Y. Park, 2024. "Accounting for Individual-Specific Heterogeneity in Intergenerational Income Mobility," Working Papers No 03/2024, Centre for Applied Macro- and Petroleum economics (CAMP), BI Norwegian Business School.
    7. Marcella Lucchetta, 2025. "Bank risk in flux: policy interplay under uncertainty," Annals of Finance, Springer, vol. 21(3), pages 379-390, September.
    8. Knut Are Aastveit & Jamie Cross & Francesco Furlanetto & Herman K van Dijk, 2024. "Asymmetric Gradualism in US Monetary Policy," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 24-074/III, Tinbergen Institute.
    9. Jaanika Merikyll & Matthias Rottner, 2025. "Monetary policy and earnings inequality.Inflation dependencies," Bank of Estonia Working Papers wp2025-05, Bank of Estonia, revised 13 Jun 2025.

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    JEL classification:

    • C11 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Bayesian Analysis: General
    • C12 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Hypothesis Testing: General
    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes

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