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Complement or substitute: Ethanol’s uncertain relationship with gasoline under alternative petroleum price and policy scenarios

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  • Debnath, Deepayan
  • Whistance, Jarrett
  • Thompson, Wyatt
  • Binfield, Julian

Abstract

Ethanol demand depends on the crude oil price and domestic biofuel mandate, but the aggregate effect on consumer fuel choices and export demand is uncertain. The relationship between crude oil and ethanol price is complex, and the presence of policy driven domestic biofuel use (mandate) make the modeling of the world ethanol market challenging. A structural economic multi-market multi-region partial equilibrium model considering the complementary and substituting effects between gasoline and ethanol demand is developed. In this study, a kinked ethanol demand curve that reflects those relationships is used to depict ethanol demand. We further simulate two forward-looking alternative crude oil price scenarios to identify how the crude oil price interacts with ethanol use mandates and trace the consequences on the U.S. Renewable Identification Number (RIN) market. The study finds that, under high crude oil prices, the substitution effect might trigger a large increase in ethanol demand by the rest of the world and the U.S. and Brazil will be the key ethanol exporting countries. In the U.S., the overall biofuel mandate might become non-binding.

Suggested Citation

  • Debnath, Deepayan & Whistance, Jarrett & Thompson, Wyatt & Binfield, Julian, 2017. "Complement or substitute: Ethanol’s uncertain relationship with gasoline under alternative petroleum price and policy scenarios," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 191(C), pages 385-397.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:appene:v:191:y:2017:i:c:p:385-397
    DOI: 10.1016/j.apenergy.2017.01.028
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    4. Moncada, J.A. & Verstegen, J.A. & Posada, J.A. & Junginger, M. & Lukszo, Z. & Faaij, A. & Weijnen, M., 2018. "Exploring policy options to spur the expansion of ethanol production and consumption in Brazil: An agent-based modeling approach," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 123(C), pages 619-641.
    5. Liu, Manzhi & Chen, Meng & He, Gang, 2017. "The origin and prospect of billion-ton coal production capacity in China," Resources, Conservation & Recycling, Elsevier, vol. 125(C), pages 70-85.
    6. Roberto Ivo da Rocha Lima Filho & Thereza Cristina Nogueira de Aquino & Adriano Marçal Nogueira Neto, 2021. "Fuel price control in Brazil: environmental impacts," Environment, Development and Sustainability: A Multidisciplinary Approach to the Theory and Practice of Sustainable Development, Springer, vol. 23(7), pages 9811-9826, July.
    7. Derick David Quintino & Heloisa Lee Burnquist & Paulo Ferreira, 2022. "Relative Prices of Ethanol-Gasoline in the Major Brazilian Capitals: An Analysis to Support Public Policies," Energies, MDPI, vol. 15(13), pages 1-23, June.
    8. Dong, Chengyu & Wang, Ying & Chan, Ka-Lai & Bhatia, Akanksha & Leu, Shao-Yuan, 2018. "Temperature profiling to maximize energy yield with reduced water input in a lignocellulosic ethanol biorefinery," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 214(C), pages 63-72.
    9. David, S.A. & Inácio, C.M.C. & Quintino, D.D. & Machado, J.A.T., 2020. "Measuring the Brazilian ethanol and gasoline market efficiency using DFA-Hurst and fractal dimension," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 85(C).
    10. El Montasser, Ghassen & Malek Belhoula, Mohamed & Charfeddine, Lanouar, 2023. "Co-explosivity versus leading effects: Evidence from crude oil and agricultural commodities," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 81(C).
    11. Debnath, Deepayan & Whistance, Jarrett & Thompson, Wyatt, 2017. "The causes of two-way U.S.–Brazil ethanol trade and the consequences for greenhouse gas emission," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 141(C), pages 2045-2053.
    12. Thompson, Wyatt & Gerlt, Scott & Dewbre, Joe H. & Effland, Anne B., 2020. "Rescuing the Decoupling Literature from Incomparable Chaos," 2020 Annual Meeting, July 26-28, Kansas City, Missouri 304366, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    13. Wu, Yunna & Xu, Chuanbo & Ke, Yiming & Li, Xinying & Li, Lingwenying, 2019. "Portfolio selection of distributed energy generation projects considering uncertainty and project interaction under different enterprise strategic scenarios," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 236(C), pages 444-464.
    14. Jiranyakul, Komain, 2022. "Ethanol Use and Gasoline Consumption in Thailand," MPRA Paper 115503, University Library of Munich, Germany.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    International ethanol market; U.S. Renewable Fuel Standard; World ethanol demand; Renewable Identification Numbers (RINs); Volatile petroleum price;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C50 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - General
    • Q42 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Alternative Energy Sources
    • Q48 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Government Policy

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