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Dynamic analysis of feasibility in ethanol supply chain for biofuel production in Mexico


  • Rendon-Sagardi, Miguel A.
  • Sanchez-Ramirez, Cuauhtemoc
  • Cortes-Robles, Guillermo
  • Alor-Hernandez, Giner
  • Cedillo-Campos, Miguel G.


Since ethanol is considered an essential additive for biofuel production, there may be the opportunity to employ it as such in Mexico. However, an analysis of the ethanol supply chain should be performed first. Therefore, in order to analyze the main variables of the ethanol supply chain, as well as the feasibility for its use, the present research developed a System Dynamics model based on an idea suggested by SENER (Secretariat of Energy in Mexico). The model explores five possible scenarios (between 2014 and 2030), and evaluates the availability of area for the sowing of sugarcane and grain sorghum crops, the production capacity for ethanol and fuel, as well as the possible reduction of carbon dioxide emissions. The model considers the trends and parameters of the agricultural and energy industries, and produces valuable information about future conditions of the Mexican biofuel and fossil fuel production and supply. The obtained results predicted two situations. First, Mexico would face a fuel shortage in the future. Second, from the amount of fuel available by that time, the biofuel produced and accumulated would collaborate little to meet the domestic fuel demand. Also, as System Dynamics is concerned, it is demonstrated that it is a powerful methodology to simulate and understand the biofuel supply chains in emerging markets as Mexico.

Suggested Citation

  • Rendon-Sagardi, Miguel A. & Sanchez-Ramirez, Cuauhtemoc & Cortes-Robles, Guillermo & Alor-Hernandez, Giner & Cedillo-Campos, Miguel G., 2014. "Dynamic analysis of feasibility in ethanol supply chain for biofuel production in Mexico," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 123(C), pages 358-367.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:appene:v:123:y:2014:i:c:p:358-367
    DOI: 10.1016/j.apenergy.2014.01.023

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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Ajanovic, Amela & Haas, Reinhard, 2014. "On the future prospects and limits of biofuels in Brazil, the US and EU," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 135(C), pages 730-737.
    2. Qudrat-Ullah, Hassan, 2017. "How to enhance the future use of energy policy simulation models through ex post validation," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 120(C), pages 58-66.
    3. repec:eee:soceps:v:66:y:2019:i:c:p:149-160 is not listed on IDEAS
    4. Chanthawong, Anuman & Dhakal, Shobhakar & Jongwanich, Juthathip, 2016. "Supply and demand of biofuels in the fuel market of Thailand: Two stage least square and three least square approaches," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 114(C), pages 431-443.
    5. Eker, Sibel & van Daalen, Els, 2015. "A model-based analysis of biomethane production in the Netherlands and the effectiveness of the subsidization policy under uncertainty," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 82(C), pages 178-196.
    6. Nunez, H., 2018. "Building a Bioethanol Market in Mexico," 2018 Conference, July 28-August 2, 2018, Vancouver, British Columbia 275921, International Association of Agricultural Economists.
    7. Debnath, Deepayan & Whistance, Jarrett & Thompson, Wyatt & Binfield, Julian, 2017. "Complement or substitute: Ethanol’s uncertain relationship with gasoline under alternative petroleum price and policy scenarios," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 191(C), pages 385-397.
    8. repec:eee:enepol:v:108:y:2017:i:c:p:765-775 is not listed on IDEAS
    9. Armin Leopold, 2016. "Energy related system dynamic models: a literature review," Central European Journal of Operations Research, Springer;Slovak Society for Operations Research;Hungarian Operational Research Society;Czech Society for Operations Research;Österr. Gesellschaft für Operations Research (ÖGOR);Slovenian Society Informatika - Section for Operational Research;Croatian Operational Research Society, vol. 24(1), pages 231-261, March.
    10. Zhao, Chunfu & Chen, Bin, 2014. "China’s oil security from the supply chain perspective: A review," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 136(C), pages 269-279.
    11. Sehatpour, Mohammad-Hadi & Kazemi, Aliyeh & Sehatpour, Hesam-eddin, 2017. "Evaluation of alternative fuels for light-duty vehicles in Iran using a multi-criteria approach," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 72(C), pages 295-310.
    12. Castañeda-Ayarza, Juan Arturo & Cortez, Luis Augusto Barbosa, 2017. "Final and B molasses for fuel ethanol production and some market implications," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 70(C), pages 1059-1065.


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