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Sensitivity of Carbon Emission Estimates from Indirect Land-Use Change

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  • Dumortier, Jerome
  • Hayes, Dermot J.
  • Carriquiry, Miguel
  • Dong, Fengxia
  • Du, Xiaodong
  • Elobeid, Amani
  • Fabiosa, Jay
  • Tokgoz, Simla

Abstract

An agricultural projection and greenhouse gas model are used to assess the impact of global cropland expansion on carbon emissions and the sensitivity of those estimates to modifications in assumptions concerning idle cropland, the degree of refinement in carbon coefficients, market responses, and yield increase. The results indicate that the impact of cropland expansion on carbon emissions is extremely sensitive to model assumptions. This is particularly true with respect to the price-induced yield response. Given the available knowledge, it is very difficult to narrow the range of reasonable parameter values to tighten the set of results to a level that would allow robust policy conclusions.

Suggested Citation

  • Dumortier, Jerome & Hayes, Dermot J. & Carriquiry, Miguel & Dong, Fengxia & Du, Xiaodong & Elobeid, Amani & Fabiosa, Jay & Tokgoz, Simla, 2011. "Sensitivity of Carbon Emission Estimates from Indirect Land-Use Change," ISU General Staff Papers 201107180700001514, Iowa State University, Department of Economics.
  • Handle: RePEc:isu:genstf:201107180700001514
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    File URL: http://lib.dr.iastate.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=1514&context=card_workingpapers
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    1. Simla Tokgoz & Amani Elobeid & Jacinto F. Fabiosa & Dermot J. Hayes & Bruce A. Babcock & Tun-Hsiang (Edward) Yu & Fengxia Dong & Chad E. Hart & John C. Beghin, 2007. "Emerging Biofuels: Outlook of Effects on U.S. Grain, Oilseed, and Livestock Markets," Food and Agricultural Policy Research Institute (FAPRI) Publications (archive only) 07-sr101, Center for Agricultural and Rural Development (CARD) at Iowa State University.
    2. Hayes, Dermot J. & Babcock, Bruce A. & Fabiosa, Jacinto F. & Tokgoz, Simla & Elobeid, Amani E. & Yu, Tun-Hsiang (Edward) & Dong, Fengxia & Hart, Chad E. & Chavez, Eddie C. & Pan, Suwen & Carriquiry, M, 2009. "Biofuels: Potential Production Capacity, Effects on Grain and Livestock Sectors, and Implications for Food Prices and Consumers," Journal of Agricultural and Applied Economics, Southern Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 41(2), April.
    3. Xiaodong Du & Dermot J. Hayes, 2008. "Impact of Ethanol Production on U.S. and Regional Gasoline Prices and on the Profitability of the U.S. Oil Refinery Industry, The," Center for Agricultural and Rural Development (CARD) Publications 08-wp467, Center for Agricultural and Rural Development (CARD) at Iowa State University.
    4. Du, Xiaodong & Hayes, Dermot J., 2009. "The impact of ethanol production on US and regional gasoline markets," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 37(8), pages 3227-3234, August.
    5. Jerome Dumortier & Dermot J. Hayes, 2009. "Towards an Integrated Global Agricultural Greenhouse Gas Model: Greenhouse Gases from Agriculture Simulation Model (GreenAgSiM)," Center for Agricultural and Rural Development (CARD) Publications 09-wp490, Center for Agricultural and Rural Development (CARD) at Iowa State University.
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