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The Indirect Land Use Impacts of U.S. Biofuel Policies: The Importance of Acreage, Yield, and Bilateral Trade Responses

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  • Keeney, Roman
  • Hertel, Thomas

Abstract

Recent work has highlighted agricultural land conversion as a significant debit in the greenhouse gas accounting of ethanol as an alternative fuel. This work has at the same time sparked considerable debate on the role of crop yield growth as a means of avoiding rapid land conversion. We examine the agricultural land use impacts of mandate driven ethanol demand increases in the United States in a formal economic equilibrium framework which allows us to examine the importance of yield price relationships. We find that the standard assumption of trend yield growth is likely restrictive for analysis of equilibrium response to significant demand increases for fuel feedstocks. Furthermore, we identify both the acreage response and bilateral trade specification of a multi-country model as important sources of variability (in terms of parametric uncertainty) in predicting global land use change from the biofuels boom.

Suggested Citation

  • Keeney, Roman & Hertel, Thomas, 2008. "The Indirect Land Use Impacts of U.S. Biofuel Policies: The Importance of Acreage, Yield, and Bilateral Trade Responses," GTAP Working Papers 2810, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Department of Agricultural Economics, Purdue University.
    • Handle: RePEc:gta:workpp:2810
    Note: GTAP Working Paper No. 52
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    File URL: https://www.gtap.agecon.purdue.edu/resources/res_display.asp?RecordID=2810
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    1. Sobowale, Flakkeh & Dicks, Michael R. & Adam, Brian D. & Campiche, Jody L., 2012. "Impact of United States Corn-Based Ethanol Production on Land Use," 2012 Annual Meeting, February 4-7, 2012, Birmingham, Alabama 119800, Southern Agricultural Economics Association.
    2. Vincent Martinet, 2012. "Effect of soil heterogeneity on the welfare economics of biofuel policies," Working Papers 2012/01, INRA, Economie Publique.
    3. Hongli Feng & Bruce A. Babcock, 2010. "Impacts of Ethanol on Planted Acreage in Market Equilibrium," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 92(3), pages 789-802.
    4. Cororaton, Caesar B. & Timilsina, Govinda R. & Mevel, Simon, 2010. "Impacts Of Large Scale Expansion Of Biofuels On Global Poverty And Income Distribution," 2010: Climate Change in World Agriculture: Mitigation, Adaptation, Trade and Food Security, June 2010, Stuttgart-Hohenheim, Germany 91279, International Agricultural Trade Research Consortium.
    5. Hertel, Thomas W. & Tyner, Wallace E. & Birur, Dileep K., 2008. "Biofuels for all? Understanding the Global Impacts of Multinational Mandates," 2008 Annual Meeting, July 27-29, 2008, Orlando, Florida 6526, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association).
    6. Thomas Hertel & Jevgenijs Steinbuks & Uris Baldos, 2013. "Competition for land in the global bioeconomy," Agricultural Economics, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 44(s1), pages 129-138, November.
    7. Moschini, GianCarlo & Cui, Jingbo & Lapan, Harvey E., 2012. "Economics of Biofuels: An Overview of Policies, Impacts and Prospects," Bio-based and Applied Economics Journal, Italian Association of Agricultural and Applied Economics (AIEAA), vol. 1(3), pages 1-28, December.
    8. Jerome Dumortier & Dermot J. Hayes & Miguel Carriquiry & Fengxia Dong & Xiaodong Du & Amani Elobeid & Jacinto F. Fabiosa & Simla Tokgoz, 2011. "Sensitivity of Carbon Emission Estimates from Indirect Land-Use Change," Applied Economic Perspectives and Policy, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 33(4), pages 673-673.
    9. Ferreira-Filho, Joaquim Bento de Souza & Horridge, Mark, 2012. "Endogenous Land Use and Supply, and Food Security in Brazil," Conference papers 332215, Purdue University, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Global Trade Analysis Project.
    10. Baker, Justin Scott & Murray, Brian C. & McCarl, Bruce A., 2011. "Biofuels, Climate Policy, And Water Management: Assessing Policy-Induced Shifts On Agriculture’S Extensive And Intensive Margins," 2011 Annual Meeting, July 24-26, 2011, Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania 104912, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    11. Kretschmer, Bettina & Peterson, Sonja, 2010. "Integrating bioenergy into computable general equilibrium models -- A survey," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 32(3), pages 673-686, May.
    12. Rebecca S. Dodder & Amani Elobeid & Timothy L. Johnson & P. Ozge Kaplan & Lyubov A. Kurkalova & Silvia Secchi & Simla Tokgoz, 2011. "Environmental Impacts of Emerging Biomass Feedstock Markets: Energy, Agriculture, and the Farmer," Center for Agricultural and Rural Development (CARD) Publications 11-wp526, Center for Agricultural and Rural Development (CARD) at Iowa State University.
    13. Thompson, Wyatt & Whistance, Jarrett & Meyer, Seth, 2011. "Effects of US biofuel policies on US and world petroleum product markets with consequences for greenhouse gas emissions," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(9), pages 5509-5518, September.
    14. Ujjayant Chakravorty & Marie-Hélène Hubert & Linda Nøstbakken, 2009. "Fuel Versus Food," Annual Review of Resource Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 1(1), pages 645-663, September.
      • Ujjayant Chakravorty & Marie-Hélène Hubert & Linda Nøstbakken, 2009. "Fuel Versus Food," Post-Print halshs-01117673, HAL.
      • Chakravorty, Ujjayant & Hubert, Marie-Helene & Nostbakken, Linda, 2009. "Fuel versus Food," Working Papers 2009-20, University of Alberta, Department of Economics.
    15. Hertel, Thomas W., 2010. "The Global Supply and Demand for Agricultural Land in 2050: A Perfect Storm in the Making?," 2010 Annual Meeting, July 25-27, 2010, Denver, Colorado 92639, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    16. Saraly Andrade de Sá & Charles Palmer & Stefanie Engel, 2012. "Ethanol Production, Food and Forests," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 51(1), pages 1-21, January.
    17. Vincent Martinet, 2010. "Soil heterogeneity, agricultural supply and land-use change: an application to biofuels production," Working Papers 2010/05, INRA, Economie Publique.
    18. Stephen Polasky & Erik Nelson & Derric Pennington & Kris Johnson, 2011. "The Impact of Land-Use Change on Ecosystem Services, Biodiversity and Returns to Landowners: A Case Study in the State of Minnesota," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 48(2), pages 219-242, February.
    19. Li, Liang & Taheripour, Farzad & Preckel, Paul V. & Tyner, Wallace E., 2012. "Improvement of GTAP Cropland Constant Elasticity of Transformation Nesting Structure," 2012 Annual Meeting, August 12-14, 2012, Seattle, Washington 124704, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    20. Thompson, Wyatt & Meyer, Seth D. & Westhoff, Patrick C., 2010. "Us Biofuel And Climate Policies Duel Over Cellulosic Biomass," 2010: Climate Change in World Agriculture: Mitigation, Adaptation, Trade and Food Security, June 2010, Stuttgart-Hohenheim, Germany 91404, International Agricultural Trade Research Consortium.
    21. Panichelli, Luis & Gnansounou, Edgard, 2015. "Impact of agricultural-based biofuel production on greenhouse gas emissions from land-use change: Key modelling choices," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 344-360.
    22. Hertel, Thomas W. & Baldos, Uris Lantz C., 2013. "Looking back to move forward: Evaluating global agricultural land use in integrated assessment models," Conference papers 332383, Purdue University, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Global Trade Analysis Project.
    23. Prussi, Matteo & Lee, Uisung & Wang, Michael & Malina, Robert & Valin, Hugo & Taheripour, Farzad & Velarde, César & Staples, Mark D. & Lonza, Laura & Hileman, James I., 2021. "CORSIA: The first internationally adopted approach to calculate life-cycle GHG emissions for aviation fuels," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 150(C).

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