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The Indirect Land Use Impacts of U.S. Biofuel Policies: The Importance of Acreage, Yield, and Bilateral Trade Responses

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  • Keeney, Roman
  • Hertel, Thomas

Abstract

Recent work has highlighted agricultural land conversion as a significant debit in the greenhouse gas accounting of ethanol as an alternative fuel. This work has at the same time sparked considerable debate on the role of crop yield growth as a means of avoiding rapid land conversion. We examine the agricultural land use impacts of mandate driven ethanol demand increases in the United States in a formal economic equilibrium framework which allows us to examine the importance of yield price relationships. We find that the standard assumption of trend yield growth is likely restrictive for analysis of equilibrium response to significant demand increases for fuel feedstocks. Furthermore, we identify both the acreage response and bilateral trade specification of a multi-country model as important sources of variability (in terms of parametric uncertainty) in predicting global land use change from the biofuels boom.

Suggested Citation

  • Keeney, Roman & Hertel, Thomas, 2008. "The Indirect Land Use Impacts of U.S. Biofuel Policies: The Importance of Acreage, Yield, and Bilateral Trade Responses," GTAP Working Papers 2810, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Department of Agricultural Economics, Purdue University.
  • Handle: RePEc:gta:workpp:2810
    Note: GTAP Working Paper No. 52
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    Cited by:

    1. Thomas Hertel & Jevgenijs Steinbuks & Uris Baldos, 2013. "Competition for land in the global bioeconomy," Agricultural Economics, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 44(s1), pages 129-138, November.
    2. Joaquim Ferreira-Filho & Mark Horridge, 2012. "Endogenous land use and supply, and food security in Brazil," Centre of Policy Studies/IMPACT Centre Working Papers g-229, Victoria University, Centre of Policy Studies/IMPACT Centre.
    3. Baker, Justin Scott & Murray, Brian C. & McCarl, Bruce A., 2011. "Biofuels, Climate Policy, And Water Management: Assessing Policy-Induced Shifts On Agriculture’S Extensive And Intensive Margins," 2011 Annual Meeting, July 24-26, 2011, Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania 104912, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    4. Hongli Feng & Bruce A. Babcock, 2010. "Impacts of Ethanol on Planted Acreage in Market Equilibrium," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 92(3), pages 789-802.
    5. Kretschmer, Bettina & Peterson, Sonja, 2010. "Integrating bioenergy into computable general equilibrium models -- A survey," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 32(3), pages 673-686, May.
    6. Thompson, Wyatt & Whistance, Jarrett & Meyer, Seth, 2011. "Effects of US biofuel policies on US and world petroleum product markets with consequences for greenhouse gas emissions," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(9), pages 5509-5518, September.
    7. Ujjayant Chakravorty & Marie-Hélène Hubert & Linda Nøstbakken, 2009. "Fuel Versus Food," Annual Review of Resource Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 1(1), pages 645-663, September.
      • Ujjayant Chakravorty & Marie-Hélène Hubert & Linda Nøstbakken, 2009. "Fuel Versus Food," Post-Print halshs-01117673, HAL.
      • Chakravorty, Ujjayant & Hubert, Marie-Helene & Nostbakken, Linda, 2009. "Fuel versus Food," Working Papers 2009-20, University of Alberta, Department of Economics.
    8. Saraly Andrade de Sá & Charles Palmer & Stefanie Engel, 2012. "Ethanol Production, Food and Forests," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 51(1), pages 1-21, January.
    9. Stephen Polasky & Erik Nelson & Derric Pennington & Kris Johnson, 2011. "The Impact of Land-Use Change on Ecosystem Services, Biodiversity and Returns to Landowners: A Case Study in the State of Minnesota," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 48(2), pages 219-242, February.
    10. Li, Liang & Taheripour, Farzad & Preckel, Paul V. & Tyner, Wallace E., 2012. "Improvement of GTAP Cropland Constant Elasticity of Transformation Nesting Structure," 2012 Annual Meeting, August 12-14, 2012, Seattle, Washington 124704, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    11. Moschini, GianCarlo & Cui, Jingbo & Lapan, Harvey E., 2012. "Economics of Biofuels: An Overview of Policies, Impacts and Prospects," Bio-based and Applied Economics Journal, Italian Association of Agricultural and Applied Economics (AIEAA), vol. 0(Issue 3), pages 1-28, December.
    12. Hertel, Thomas & Tyner, Wally & Birur, Dileep, 2008. "Biofuels for all? Understanding the Global Impacts of Multinational Mandates," GTAP Working Papers 2809, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Department of Agricultural Economics, Purdue University.
    13. Thompson, Wyatt & Meyer, Seth D. & Westhoff, Patrick C., 2010. "Us Biofuel And Climate Policies Duel Over Cellulosic Biomass," 2010: Climate Change in World Agriculture: Mitigation, Adaptation, Trade and Food Security, June 2010, Stuttgart-Hohenheim, Germany 91404, International Agricultural Trade Research Consortium.
    14. Hertel, Thomas W., 2010. "The Global Supply and Demand for Agricultural Land in 2050: A Perfect Storm in the Making?," 2010 Annual Meeting, July 25-27, 2010, Denver, Colorado 92639, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    15. Vincent Martinet, 2012. "Effect of soil heterogeneity on the welfare economics of biofuel policies," Working Papers 2012/01, INRA, Economie Publique.
    16. Cororaton, Caesar B. & Timilsina, Govinda R. & Mevel, Simon, 2010. "Impacts Of Large Scale Expansion Of Biofuels On Global Poverty And Income Distribution," 2010: Climate Change in World Agriculture: Mitigation, Adaptation, Trade and Food Security, June 2010, Stuttgart-Hohenheim, Germany 91279, International Agricultural Trade Research Consortium.
    17. Rebecca S. Dodder & Amani Elobeid & Timothy L. Johnson & P. Ozge Kaplan & Lyubov A. Kurkalova & Silvia Secchi & Simla Tokgoz, 2011. "Environmental Impacts of Emerging Biomass Feedstock Markets: Energy, Agriculture, and the Farmer," Center for Agricultural and Rural Development (CARD) Publications 11-wp526, Center for Agricultural and Rural Development (CARD) at Iowa State University.
    18. Vincent Martinet, 2010. "Soil heterogeneity, agricultural supply and land-use change: an application to biofuels production," Working Papers 2010/05, INRA, Economie Publique.

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