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Sensitivity of Carbon Emission Estimates from Indirect Land-Use Change

Author

Listed:
  • Jerome Dumortier
  • Dermot J. Hayes
  • Miguel Carriquiry
  • Fengxia Dong
  • Xiaodong Du
  • Amani Elobeid
  • Jacinto F. Fabiosa
  • Simla Tokgoz

Abstract

An agricultural projection and greenhouse gas model are used to assess the impact of global cropland expansion on carbon emissions and the sensitivity of those estimates to modifications in assumptions concerning idle cropland, the degree of refinement in carbon coefficients, market responses, and yield increase. The results indicate that the impact of cropland expansion on carbon emissions is extremely sensitive to model assumptions. This is particularly true with respect to the price-induced yield response. Given the available knowledge, it is very difficult to narrow the range of reasonable parameter values to tighten the set of results to a level that would allow robust policy conclusions. Copyright 2011, Oxford University Press.

Suggested Citation

  • Jerome Dumortier & Dermot J. Hayes & Miguel Carriquiry & Fengxia Dong & Xiaodong Du & Amani Elobeid & Jacinto F. Fabiosa & Simla Tokgoz, 2011. "Sensitivity of Carbon Emission Estimates from Indirect Land-Use Change," Applied Economic Perspectives and Policy, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 33(3), pages 428-448.
  • Handle: RePEc:oup:apecpp:v:33:y:2011:i:3:p:428-448
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    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1093/aepp/ppr015
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    1. Simla Tokgoz & Amani Elobeid & Jacinto F. Fabiosa & Dermot J. Hayes & Bruce A. Babcock & Tun-Hsiang (Edward) Yu & Fengxia Dong & Chad E. Hart & John C. Beghin, 2007. "Emerging Biofuels: Outlook of Effects on U.S. Grain, Oilseed, and Livestock Markets," Food and Agricultural Policy Research Institute (FAPRI) Publications 07-sr101, Food and Agricultural Policy Research Institute (FAPRI) at Iowa State University.
    2. Jerome Dumortier & Dermot J. Hayes, 2009. "Towards an Integrated Global Agricultural Greenhouse Gas Model: Greenhouse Gases from Agriculture Simulation Model (GreenAgSiM)," Center for Agricultural and Rural Development (CARD) Publications 09-wp490, Center for Agricultural and Rural Development (CARD) at Iowa State University.
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    Cited by:

    1. Piroli, Giuseppe & Rajcaniova, Miroslava & Ciaian, Pavel & Kancs, d׳Artis, 2015. "From a rise in B to a fall in C? SVAR analysis of environmental impact of biofuels," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 49(C), pages 921-930.
    2. Alexandre Gohin, 2014. "Assessing the Land Use Changes and Greenhouse Gas Emissions of Biofuels: Elucidating the Crop Yield Effects," Land Economics, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 90(4), pages 575-586.
    3. Karel Janda & Ladislav Kristoufek & David Zilberman, 2011. "Modeling the Environmental and Socio-Economic Impacts of Biofuels," Working Papers IES 2011/33, Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, Institute of Economic Studies, revised Oct 2011.
    4. repec:eee:enepol:v:110:y:2017:i:c:p:434-446 is not listed on IDEAS
    5. Moschini, GianCarlo & Cui, Jingbo & Lapan, Harvey E., 0. "Economics of Biofuels: An Overview of Policies, Impacts and Prospects," Bio-based and Applied Economics Journal, Italian Association of Agricultural and Applied Economics (AIEAA), issue 3.
    6. Agneta Forslund & Alexandre Gohin & Chantal Le Mouël & Fabrice Levert, 2014. "Biodiesel vs. ethanol, UE vs. US biofuels: So different in terms of LUC impact?," Working Papers SMART - LERECO 14-04, INRA UMR SMART-LERECO.
    7. Rajagopal, Deepak & Zilberman, David, 2013. "On market-mediated emissions and regulations on life cycle emissions," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 90(C), pages 77-84.
    8. Dumortier, Jerome Robert Florian, 2011. "The impact of forest offset credits under a stochastic carbon price on agriculture using a rational expectations and real options framework," ISU General Staff Papers 201101010800001160, Iowa State University, Department of Economics.
    9. Antonio M. Bento, Richard Klotz, and Joel R. Landry, 2015. "Are there Carbon Savings from US Biofuel Policies? The Critical Importance of Accounting for Leakage in Land and Fuel Markets," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 3).
    10. Elobeid, Amani & Carriquiry, Miguel A. & Demotier, Jerome & Rosas, Juan (Francisco) & Mulik, Kranti & Fabiosa, Jacinto F. & Hayes, Dermot J. & Babcock, Bruce A., 2013. "Biofuel Expansion, Fertilizer Use and GHG Emissions: Unintended Consequences of Mitigation Policies," Staff General Research Papers Archive 37415, Iowa State University, Department of Economics.
    11. Alexandre Gohin, 2013. "The land use changes of European biodiesel: sensitivity to crop yield evolutions," Working Papers SMART - LERECO 13-13, INRA UMR SMART-LERECO.
    12. Janda, Karel & Kristoufek, Ladislav & Zilberman, David, 2011. "Biofuels: Review of Policies and Impacts," Department of Agricultural & Resource Economics, UC Berkeley, Working Paper Series qt5v1112qr, Department of Agricultural & Resource Economics, UC Berkeley.
    13. Henders, Sabine & Ostwald, Madelene, 2014. "Accounting methods for international land-related leakage and distant deforestation drivers," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 99(C), pages 21-28.
    14. Kauffman, Nathan & Dumortier, Jerome & Hayes, Dermot J. & Brown, Robert C. & Laird, David, 2014. "Producing energy while sequestering carbon? The relationship between biochar and agricultural productivity," ISU General Staff Papers 201404010700001488, Iowa State University, Department of Economics.
    15. Gathorne-Hardy, Alfred & Reddy, D. Narasimha & Venkatanarayana, M. & Harriss-White, Barbara, 2016. "System of Rice Intensification provides environmental and economic gains but at the expense of social sustainability — A multidisciplinary analysis in India," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 143(C), pages 159-168.
    16. Debnath, Deepayan & Whistance, Jarrett & Thompson, Wyatt & Binfield, Julian, 2017. "Complement or substitute: Ethanol’s uncertain relationship with gasoline under alternative petroleum price and policy scenarios," Applied Energy, Elsevier, pages 385-397.
    17. Zhang, Wei & Yu, Elaine A. & Rozelle, Scott & Yang, Jun & Msangi, Siwa, 2013. "The impact of biofuel growth on agriculture: Why is the range of estimates so wide?," Food Policy, Elsevier, vol. 38(C), pages 227-239.
    18. Delzeit, Ruth & Klepper, Gernot & Söder, Mareike, 2016. "An evaluation of approaches for quantifying emissions from indirect land use change," Kiel Working Papers 2035, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW).
    19. Dumortier, Jerome, 2015. "Impact of agronomic uncertainty in biomass production and endogenous commodity prices on cellulosic biofuel feedstock composition," IU SPEA AgEcon Papers 198707, Indiana University, IU School of Public and Environmental Affairs.
    20. Delzeit, Ruth & Klepper, Gernot & Söder, Mareike, 2017. "Indirect land use change (iLUC) revisited: An evaluation of current policy proposals," Kiel Working Papers 2075, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW).
    21. Dumortier, Jerome, 2014. "Impact of different bioenergy crop yield estimates on the cellulosic ethanol feedstock mix," 2014 Annual Meeting, July 27-29, 2014, Minneapolis, Minnesota 171168, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.

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