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Analysis of the Effects of Chinese and Mexican Retaliatory Tariffs on Select U.S. Agricultural Commodities on U.S. and Global Markets

Author

Listed:
  • Amani Elobeid

    (EEUU. Department of Economics, Iowa State University)

  • Miguel Carriquiry

    (Universidad de la República (Uruguay). Facultad de Ciencias Económicas y de Administración. Instituto de Economía)

  • David Swenson

    (EEUU. Department of Economics, Iowa State University)

  • Dermot Hayes

    (EEUU.Department of Economics, Iowa State University)

Abstract

This study examines the impact of retaliatory tariffs imposed on U.S. pork, soybeans, corn and wheat by China and on U.S. pork by Mexico on select U.S. agricultural commodities. Results show a decline in U.S. exports by 32% for pork and corn, 15% for soybeans, and 1.5% for wheat relative to the baseline. Domestic pork prices fall by 12% while crop prices decrease by between 8% and 12%. In the long run, the decline in U.S. production leads to 60,000 fewer jobs and $3.1 billion less labor income. The economy experiences a loss of almost $12 billion in national output.

Suggested Citation

  • Amani Elobeid & Miguel Carriquiry & David Swenson & Dermot Hayes, 2019. "Analysis of the Effects of Chinese and Mexican Retaliatory Tariffs on Select U.S. Agricultural Commodities on U.S. and Global Markets," Documentos de Trabajo (working papers) 19-22, Instituto de Economía - IECON.
    • Handle: RePEc:ulr:wpaper:dt-22-19
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    File URL: https://hdl.handle.net/20.500.12008/22828
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Zhou, Yujun & Baylis, Kathy & Coppess, Jonathan & Xie, Qianting, . "Evaluating Potential Long-Run Impacts of Chinese Tariff on US Soybeans," farmdoc daily, University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign, Department of Agricultural and Consumer Economics, vol. 8.
    2. Hayes, Dermot & Babcock, Bruce & Fabiosa, Jacinto & Tokgoz, Simla & Elobeid, Amani & Yu, Tun-Hsiang & Dong, Fengxia & Hart, Chad & Chavez, Eddie & Pan, Suwen & Carriquiry, Miguel & Dumortier, Jerome, 2009. "Biofuels: Potential Production Capacity, Effects on Grain and Livestock Sectors, and Implications for Food Prices and Consumers," Journal of Agricultural and Applied Economics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 41(2), pages 465-491, August.
    3. Giri, Anil & Peterson, Wesley F. & Sharma, Sankalp, . "The Impact of the Market Facilitation Program on U.S. Soybean, Sorghum and Corn Producers," Choices: The Magazine of Food, Farm, and Resource Issues, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 33(4).
    4. Giri, Anil & Peterson, Wes, "undated". "Market Facilitation Program: Impact on Nebraska Corn and Soybean Producers," Cornhusker Economics 307065, University of Nebraska-Lincoln, Department of Agricultural Economics.
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    Cited by:

    1. Lee, Meongsu & Westhoff, Patrick, 2020. "The U.S.-China Trade war and Impact on Land Returning to Soybean Production from the Conservation Reserve Program," 2020 Annual Meeting, July 26-28, Kansas City, Missouri 304518, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    2. Morgan, Stephen & Arita, Shawn & Beckman, Jayson & Ahsan, Saquib & Russell, Dylan & Jarrell, Philip & Kenner, Bart, "undated". "The Economic Impacts of Retaliatory Tariffs on U.S. Agriculture," USDA Miscellaneous 316892, United States Department of Agriculture.

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    JEL classification:

    • F14 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Empirical Studies of Trade
    • F17 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Trade Forecasting and Simulation
    • Q17 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Agriculture - - - Agriculture in International Trade
    • Q18 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Agriculture - - - Agricultural Policy; Food Policy; Animal Welfare Policy

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