IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/ulr/wpaper/dt-22-19.html

Analysis of the Effects of Chinese and Mexican Retaliatory Tariffs on Select U.S. Agricultural Commodities on U.S. and Global Markets

Author

Listed:
  • Amani Elobeid

    (EEUU. Department of Economics, Iowa State University)

  • Miguel Carriquiry

    (Universidad de la República (Uruguay). Facultad de Ciencias Económicas y de Administración. Instituto de Economía)

  • David Swenson

    (EEUU. Department of Economics, Iowa State University)

  • Dermot Hayes

    (EEUU.Department of Economics, Iowa State University)

Abstract

This study examines the impact of retaliatory tariffs imposed on U.S. pork, soybeans, corn and wheat by China and on U.S. pork by Mexico on select U.S. agricultural commodities. Results show a decline in U.S. exports by 32% for pork and corn, 15% for soybeans, and 1.5% for wheat relative to the baseline. Domestic pork prices fall by 12% while crop prices decrease by between 8% and 12%. In the long run, the decline in U.S. production leads to 60,000 fewer jobs and $3.1 billion less labor income. The economy experiences a loss of almost $12 billion in national output.

Suggested Citation

  • Amani Elobeid & Miguel Carriquiry & David Swenson & Dermot Hayes, 2019. "Analysis of the Effects of Chinese and Mexican Retaliatory Tariffs on Select U.S. Agricultural Commodities on U.S. and Global Markets," Documentos de Trabajo (working papers) 19-22, Instituto de Economía - IECON.
    • Handle: RePEc:ulr:wpaper:dt-22-19
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://hdl.handle.net/20.500.12008/22828
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Zhou, Yujun & Baylis, Kathy & Coppess, Jonathan & Xie, Qianting, . "Evaluating Potential Long-Run Impacts of Chinese Tariff on US Soybeans," farmdoc daily, University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign, Department of Agricultural and Consumer Economics, vol. 8.
    2. Hayes, Dermot & Babcock, Bruce & Fabiosa, Jacinto & Tokgoz, Simla & Elobeid, Amani & Yu, Tun-Hsiang & Dong, Fengxia & Hart, Chad & Chavez, Eddie & Pan, Suwen & Carriquiry, Miguel & Dumortier, Jerome, 2009. "Biofuels: Potential Production Capacity, Effects on Grain and Livestock Sectors, and Implications for Food Prices and Consumers," Journal of Agricultural and Applied Economics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 41(2), pages 465-491, August.
    3. Giri, Anil & Peterson, Wes, "undated". "Market Facilitation Program: Impact on Nebraska Corn and Soybean Producers," Cornhusker Economics 307065, University of Nebraska-Lincoln, Department of Agricultural Economics.
    4. Giri, Anil & Peterson, Wesley F. & Sharma, Sankalp, . "The Impact of the Market Facilitation Program on U.S. Soybean, Sorghum and Corn Producers," Choices: The Magazine of Food, Farm, and Resource Issues, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 33(4).
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Lee, Meongsu & Westhoff, Patrick, 2020. "The U.S.-China Trade war and Impact on Land Returning to Soybean Production from the Conservation Reserve Program," 2020 Annual Meeting, July 26-28, Kansas City, Missouri 304518, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    2. Morgan, Stephen & Arita, Shawn & Beckman, Jayson & Ahsan, Saquib & Russell, Dylan & Jarrell, Philip & Kenner, Bart, "undated". "The Economic Impacts of Retaliatory Tariffs on U.S. Agriculture," USDA Miscellaneous 316892, United States Department of Agriculture.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Amani Elobeid & Miguel Carriquiry & Jerome Dumortier & David Swenson & Dermot J. Hayes, 2021. "China‐U.S. trade dispute and its impact on global agricultural markets, the U.S. economy, and greenhouse gas emissions," Journal of Agricultural Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 72(3), pages 647-672, September.
    2. Catherine L. Kling & Raymond W. Arritt & Gray Calhoun & David A. Keiser, 2016. "Research Needs and Challenges in the FEW System: Coupling Economic Models with Agronomic, Hydrologic, and Bioenergy Models for Sustainable Food, Energy, and Water Systems," Center for Agricultural and Rural Development (CARD) Publications 16-wp563, Center for Agricultural and Rural Development (CARD) at Iowa State University.
    3. Paudel, Krishna P. & Timilsina, Govinda R., 2010. "Would There Be Surplus Grains for Biofuels? An Assessment of Agro-economic Factors and Biofuel Production Potential at the Global Level," Staff Papers 113125, Louisiana State University, Department of Agricultural Economics and Agribusiness.
    4. Hoekman, S. Kent & Broch, Amber, 2018. "Environmental implications of higher ethanol production and use in the U.S.: A literature review. Part II – Biodiversity, land use change, GHG emissions, and sustainability," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 81(P2), pages 3159-3177.
    5. Jerome Dumortier & Dermot J. Hayes & Miguel Carriquiry & Fengxia Dong & Xiaodong Du & Amani Elobeid & Jacinto F. Fabiosa & Simla Tokgoz, 2011. "Sensitivity of Carbon Emission Estimates from Indirect Land-Use Change," Applied Economic Perspectives and Policy, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 33(4), pages 673-673.
    6. Lee, Meongsu & Westhoff, Patrick, 2020. "The U.S.-China Trade war and Impact on Land Returning to Soybean Production from the Conservation Reserve Program," 2020 Annual Meeting, July 26-28, Kansas City, Missouri 304518, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    7. Huang, Jikun & Yang, Jun & Msangi, Siwa & Rozelle, Scott & Weersink, Alfons, 2012. "Global biofuel production and poverty in China," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 98(C), pages 246-255.
    8. Ciaian, Pavel & Kancs, d'Artis, 2011. "Interdependencies in the energy-bioenergy-food price systems: A cointegration analysis," Resource and Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(1), pages 326-348, January.
    9. Condon, Nicole & Klemick, Heather & Wolverton, Ann, 2015. "Impacts of ethanol policy on corn prices: A review and meta-analysis of recent evidence," Food Policy, Elsevier, vol. 51(C), pages 63-73.
    10. Amani Elobeid, 2015. "Capturing Dynamic Linkages Between Agriculture and Energy in Biofuel Assessment: The Case of Iowa," Center for Agricultural and Rural Development (CARD) Publications apr-spring-2015-2, Center for Agricultural and Rural Development (CARD) at Iowa State University.
    11. Moschini, GianCarlo & Cui, Jingbo & Lapan, Harvey E., . "Economics of Biofuels: An Overview of Policies, Impacts and Prospects," Bio-based and Applied Economics Journal, Italian Association of Agricultural and Applied Economics (AIEAA), vol. 1(3), pages 1-28.
    12. Chad Hart & Lee L. Schulz, 2015. "Searching for Profitable Margins," Center for Agricultural and Rural Development (CARD) Publications apr-spring-2015-3, Center for Agricultural and Rural Development (CARD) at Iowa State University.
    13. M. Jimena Gonzalez-Ramirez & Yongjie Ji, 2015. "Agricultural Land Use Change in the Corn Belt," Center for Agricultural and Rural Development (CARD) Publications apr-spring-2015-1, Center for Agricultural and Rural Development (CARD) at Iowa State University.
    14. Bouët, Antoine & Dimaranan, Betina V. & Valin, Hugo, 2010. "Modeling the global trade and environmental impacts of biofuel policies," IFPRI discussion papers 1018, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
    15. Witzke, Heinz Peter & Fabiosa, Jacinto F. & Gay, Stephan Hubertus & Golub, Alla A. & Havlik, Petr & Msangi, Siwa & Tokgoz, Simla & Searchinger, Timothy D., 2010. "A Decomposition Approach To Assess Iluc Results From Global Modeling Efforts," 2010: Climate Change in World Agriculture: Mitigation, Adaptation, Trade and Food Security, June 2010, Stuttgart-Hohenheim, Germany 91430, International Agricultural Trade Research Consortium.
    16. Dodder, Rebecca S. & Amani, Elobeid & Johnson, Timothy L. & Kaplan, P. Ozge & Kurkalova, Lyubov A. & Secchi, Silvia & Tokgoz, Simla, 2011. "Environmental Impacts of Emerging Biomass Feedstock Markets: Energy, Agriculture, and the Farmer," Hebrew University of Jerusalem Archive 118453, Hebrew University of Jerusalem.
    17. Dumortier, Jerome & Hayes, Dermot J. & Carriquiry, Miguel A. & Dong, Fengxia & Du, Xiaodong & Elobeid, Amani E. & Fabiosa, Jacinto F. & Mulik, Kranti, "undated". "Modeling The Effects Of Pasture Expansion On Emissions From Land-Use Change," 2010: Climate Change in World Agriculture: Mitigation, Adaptation, Trade and Food Security, June 2010, Stuttgart-Hohenheim, Germany 95944, International Agricultural Trade Research Consortium.
    18. Wetzstein, Michael E., 2010. "Should We Invest in Biofuels?," Journal of Agricultural and Applied Economics, Southern Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 42(3), pages 1-7, August.
    19. repec:aen:journl:ej34-4-01 is not listed on IDEAS
    20. Wetzstein, M. & Wetzstein, H., 2011. "Four myths surrounding U.S. biofuels," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(7), pages 4308-4312, July.
    21. Huang, Jikun & Yang, Jun & Msangi, Siwa & Rozelle, Scott & Weersink, Alfons, 2012. "Biofuels and the poor: Global impact pathways of biofuels on agricultural markets," Food Policy, Elsevier, vol. 37(4), pages 439-451.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    ;
    ;
    ;

    JEL classification:

    • F14 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Empirical Studies of Trade
    • F17 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Trade Forecasting and Simulation
    • Q17 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Agriculture - - - Agriculture in International Trade
    • Q18 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Agriculture - - - Agricultural Policy; Food Policy; Animal Welfare Policy

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ulr:wpaper:dt-22-19. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Lorenza Pérez (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/ierauuy.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.