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How deep is your love? A quantitative spatial analysis of the transatlantic trade partnership

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  • Oliver Krebs
  • Michael Pflüger

Abstract

This paper explores the quantitative effects of trade liberalization envisioned in a transatlantic trade and investment partnership (TTIP) between the United States and the European Union. We use a quantitative trade model that, in contrast to other works, features consumptive and productive uses of land and we allow for labor mobility and a spatial equilibrium. Our calibration draws mainly on the world input–output database (WIOD). The eventual outcome of the negotiations is uncertain. Tariffs in E.U.–U.S. trade are already very low, however, so that an agreement will have a major impact only by eliminating nontariff barriers. These are extremely hard to quantify. We address these uncertainties by considering a corridor of trade†liberalization paths and by providing numerous robustness checks. Even with ambitious liberalization, real income gains within a TTIP are in the range of up to 0.46 percent for most countries. The effect on outside countries is typically negative, yet even smaller. Taking land into account scales down the welfare effects strongly. Interestingly, we find that all German counties derive unambiguous welfare gains even though the model allows for negative terms†of†trade effects. Our analysis also implies that in order to arrive at the same welfare gains as under a TTIP, a multilateral liberalization would have to be much more ambitious for the U.S. than for the E.U.

Suggested Citation

  • Oliver Krebs & Michael Pflüger, 2018. "How deep is your love? A quantitative spatial analysis of the transatlantic trade partnership," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 26(1), pages 171-222, February.
  • Handle: RePEc:bla:reviec:v:26:y:2018:i:1:p:171-222
    DOI: 10.1111/roie.12323
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Oliver Krebs, 2018. "RIOTs in Germany – Constructing an interregional input-output table for Germany," Working Papers 182, Bavarian Graduate Program in Economics (BGPE).
    2. Oliver Krebs, 2018. "Shocking Germany – A spatial analysis of German regional labor markets," Working Papers 183, Bavarian Graduate Program in Economics (BGPE).
    3. Gabriel Felbermayr, 2016. "Economic Analysis of TTIP," ifo Working Paper Series 215, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich.
    4. Walter, Timo, 2018. "Trade and welfare effects of a potential free trade agreement between Japan and the United States," Hohenheim Discussion Papers in Business, Economics and Social Sciences 16-2018, University of Hohenheim, Faculty of Business, Economics and Social Sciences.
    5. Krebs, Oliver & Pflüger, Michael P., 2019. "On the Road (Again): Commuting and Local Employment Elasticities in Germany," IZA Discussion Papers 12257, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    6. Yuan Li & Hans-Jörg Schmerer, 2017. "Trade and the New Silk Road: opportunities, challenges, and solutions," Journal of Chinese Economic and Business Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 15(3), pages 205-213, July.
    7. Aichele Rahel & Felbermayr Gabriel J. & Heiland Inga, 2016. "TTIP and Intra-European Trade: Boon or Bane?," Journal of Economics and Statistics (Jahrbuecher fuer Nationaloekonomie und Statistik), De Gruyter, vol. 236(6), pages 639-664, December.
    8. Berger, Marius & Boockmann, Bernhard & Felbermayr, Gabriel & Klempt, Charlotte & Koch, Andreas & Kohler, Wilhelm K. & Lerch, Christian & Neuhäusler, Peter & Rammer, Christian, 2017. "Strukturanalyse und Perspektiven des Wirtschaftsstandortes Baden-Württemberg im nationalen und internationalen Vergleich. Abschlussbericht," ZEW Expertises, ZEW - Leibniz Centre for European Economic Research, number 172787.

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • F11 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Neoclassical Models of Trade
    • F16 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Trade and Labor Market Interactions
    • R12 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - General Regional Economics - - - Size and Spatial Distributions of Regional Economic Activity; Interregional Trade (economic geography)
    • R13 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - General Regional Economics - - - General Equilibrium and Welfare Economic Analysis of Regional Economies

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