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Scoring the Leading Indicators

Citations

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Cited by:

  1. Hashmat Khan & Santosh Upadhayaya, 2020. "Does business confidence matter for investment?," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 59(4), pages 1633-1665, October.
  2. Jens J. Krüger, 2021. "A Wavelet Evaluation of Some Leading Business Cycle Indicators for the German Economy," Journal of Business Cycle Research, Springer;Centre for International Research on Economic Tendency Surveys (CIRET), vol. 17(3), pages 293-319, December.
  3. Tobias Knedlik & Gregor Von Schweinitz, 2012. "Macroeconomic Imbalances as Indicators for Debt Crises in Europe," Journal of Common Market Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 50(5), pages 726-745, September.
  4. Layton, Allan P. & Katsuura, Masaki, 2001. "Comparison of regime switching, probit and logit models in dating and forecasting US business cycles," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 17(3), pages 403-417.
  5. Reinhart, Carmen & Goldstein, Morris & Kaminsky, Graciela, 2000. "Assessing financial vulnerability, an early warning system for emerging markets: Introduction," MPRA Paper 13629, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  6. Marcelle Chauvet, 2001. "The Brazilian Economic Fluctuations," Anais do XXIX Encontro Nacional de Economia [Proceedings of the 29th Brazilian Economics Meeting] 033, ANPEC - Associação Nacional dos Centros de Pós-Graduação em Economia [Brazilian Association of Graduate Programs in Economics].
  7. João Victor Issler & Hilton Hostalacio Notini & Claudia Fontoura Rodrigues, 2013. "Constructing coincident and leading indices of economic activity for the Brazilian economy," OECD Journal: Journal of Business Cycle Measurement and Analysis, OECD Publishing, Centre for International Research on Economic Tendency Surveys, vol. 2012(2), pages 43-65.
  8. Ferriani, Fabrizio, 2010. "Informed and uninformed traders at work: evidence from the French market," MPRA Paper 24487, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  9. Michael P. Clements & David I. Harvey, 2010. "Forecast encompassing tests and probability forecasts," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 25(6), pages 1028-1062.
  10. Zeynep Senyuz, 2011. "Factor analysis of permanent and transitory dynamics of the US economy and the stock market," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 26(6), pages 975-998, September.
  11. Heun, Michael & Schlink, Torsten, 2004. "Early warning systems of financial crises: implementation of a currency crisis model for Uganda," Frankfurt School - Working Paper Series 59, Frankfurt School of Finance and Management.
  12. Carriero, Andrea & Marcellino, Massimiliano, 2007. "A comparison of methods for the construction of composite coincident and leading indexes for the UK," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 23(2), pages 219-236.
  13. James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 1989. "New Indexes of Coincident and Leading Economic Indicators," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 1989, Volume 4, pages 351-409, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  14. Shyh-Wei Chen, 2007. "Using Regional Cycles to Measure National Business Cycles in the U.S. with the Markov Switching Panel Model," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 3(46), pages 1-12.
  15. Lota D. Tamini & Jean‐Philippe Gervais, 2005. "Developing Economic Indexes for the Quebec Hog/Pork Industry," Canadian Journal of Agricultural Economics/Revue canadienne d'agroeconomie, Canadian Agricultural Economics Society/Societe canadienne d'agroeconomie, vol. 53(1), pages 1-23, March.
  16. Rafal Kasperowicz, 2010. "Identification Of Industrial Cycle Leading Indicators Using Causality Test," Equilibrium. Quarterly Journal of Economics and Economic Policy, Institute of Economic Research, vol. 5(2), pages 47-59, December.
  17. Qi, Min, 2001. "Predicting US recessions with leading indicators via neural network models," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 17(3), pages 383-401.
  18. Nikos C. Papapostolou & Nikos K. Nomikos & Panos K. Pouliasis & Ioannis Kyriakou, 2014. "Investor Sentiment for Real Assets: The Case of Dry Bulk Shipping Market," Review of Finance, European Finance Association, vol. 18(4), pages 1507-1539.
  19. Diebold, Francis X & Rudebusch, Glenn D, 1996. "Measuring Business Cycles: A Modern Perspective," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 78(1), pages 67-77, February.
  20. Haase, Felix & Neuenkirch, Matthias, 2023. "Predictability of bull and bear markets: A new look at forecasting stock market regimes (and returns) in the US," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 39(2), pages 587-605.
  21. Veloce, William, 1996. "An evaluation of the leading indicators for the Canadian economy using time series analysis," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 12(3), pages 403-416, September.
  22. Chen, Shyh-Wei, 2006. "Simultaneously modeling the volatility of the growth rate of real GDP and determining business cycle turning points: Evidence from the U.S., Canada and the UK," Mathematics and Computers in Simulation (MATCOM), Elsevier, vol. 71(2), pages 87-102.
  23. Chan Guk Huh, 1991. "Probability of recession," FRBSF Economic Letter, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue apr5.
  24. Carmen M. Reinhart & Graciela L. Kaminsky, 1999. "The Twin Crises: The Causes of Banking and Balance-of-Payments Problems," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 89(3), pages 473-500, June.
  25. John W. Galbraith & Simon van Norden, 2009. "Calibration and Resolution Diagnostics for Bank of England Density Forecasts," CIRANO Working Papers 2009s-36, CIRANO.
  26. Çakmaklı, Cem & Paap, Richard & van Dijk, Dick, 2013. "Measuring and predicting heterogeneous recessions," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 37(11), pages 2195-2216.
  27. Davig, Troy & Hall, Aaron Smalter, 2019. "Recession forecasting using Bayesian classification," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 35(3), pages 848-867.
  28. Khurshid Kiani, 2011. "Fluctuations in Economic and Activity and Stabilization Policies in the CIS," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 37(2), pages 193-220, February.
  29. Nissilä, Wilma, 2020. "Probit based time series models in recession forecasting – A survey with an empirical illustration for Finland," BoF Economics Review 7/2020, Bank of Finland.
  30. John W. Galbraith & Simon van Norden, 2008. "The Calibration of Probabilistic Economic Forecasts," CIRANO Working Papers 2008s-28, CIRANO.
  31. Konstantin Kholodilin, 2003. "US composite economic indicator with nonlinear dynamics and the data subject to structural breaks," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 10(6), pages 363-372.
  32. Aslanidis, Nektarios & Cipollini, Andrea, 2010. "Leading indicator properties of US high-yield credit spreads," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 32(1), pages 145-156, March.
  33. Christian Gayer & Alessandro Girardi & Andreas Reuter, 2016. "Replacing Judgment by Statistics: Constructing Consumer Confidence Indicators on the basis of Data-driven Techniques. The Case of the Euro Area," Working Papers LuissLab 16125, Dipartimento di Economia e Finanza, LUISS Guido Carli.
  34. Klaus Abberger & Wolfgang Nierhaus, 2010. "Markov-Switching and the Ifo Business Climate: the Ifo Business Cycle Traffic Lights," OECD Journal: Journal of Business Cycle Measurement and Analysis, OECD Publishing, Centre for International Research on Economic Tendency Surveys, vol. 2010(2), pages 1-13.
  35. Balke, Nathan S & Petersen, D'Ann, 2002. "How Well Does the Beige Book Reflect Economic Activity? Evaluating Qualitative Information Quantitatively," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 34(1), pages 114-136, February.
  36. Kholodilin Konstantin A., 2005. "Forecasting the German Cyclical Turning Points: Dynamic Bi-Factor Model with Markov Switching," Journal of Economics and Statistics (Jahrbuecher fuer Nationaloekonomie und Statistik), De Gruyter, vol. 225(6), pages 653-674, December.
  37. Bastianin, Andrea & Galeotti, Marzio & Manera, Matteo, 2014. "Forecasting the oil–gasoline price relationship: Do asymmetries help?," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 46(S1), pages 44-56.
  38. Castilla, Adolfo, 2015. "Proyecto LINK y Econometría de Alta Frecuencia: Las últimas aportaciones econométricas de Lawrence R. Klein /LINK Project and High Frequency Econometrics: Recent Econometric Contributions of Lawrence ," Estudios de Economia Aplicada, Estudios de Economia Aplicada, vol. 33, pages 421-450, Mayo.
  39. Maximo Camacho & Gabriel Perez-Quiros, 2002. "This is what the leading indicators lead," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 17(1), pages 61-80.
  40. Fernandez-Perez, Adrian & Fernández-Rodríguez, Fernando & Sosvilla-Rivero, Simón, 2014. "The term structure of interest rates as predictor of stock returns: Evidence for the IBEX 35 during a bear market," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 31(C), pages 21-33.
  41. Allan Layton & Daniel R. Smith, 2005. "Testing the Power of Leading Indicators to Predict Business Cycle Phase Changes," School of Economics and Finance Discussion Papers and Working Papers Series 200, School of Economics and Finance, Queensland University of Technology.
  42. Henri Nyberg, 2010. "Dynamic probit models and financial variables in recession forecasting," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 29(1-2), pages 215-230.
  43. Ana-Maria Fuertes & Elena Kalotychou, 2004. "Forecasting sovereign default using panel models: A comparative analysis," Computing in Economics and Finance 2004 228, Society for Computational Economics.
  44. Raffaella Giacomini & Barbara Rossi, 2013. "Forecasting in macroeconomics," Chapters, in: Nigar Hashimzade & Michael A. Thornton (ed.), Handbook of Research Methods and Applications in Empirical Macroeconomics, chapter 17, pages 381-408, Edward Elgar Publishing.
  45. Francis X. Diebold & Glenn D. Rudebusch, 2001. "Five questions about business cycles," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, pages 1-15.
  46. Chen, Shiu-Sheng, 2009. "Predicting the bear stock market: Macroeconomic variables as leading indicators," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 33(2), pages 211-223, February.
  47. Bruno, Giancarlo & Otranto, Edoardo, 2008. "Models to date the business cycle: The Italian case," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 25(5), pages 899-911, September.
  48. Burcu Gurcihan Yunculer & Gonul Sengul & Arzu Yavuz, 2014. "A Quest for Leading Indicators of the Turkish Unemployment Rate," Central Bank Review, Research and Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey, vol. 14(1), pages 23-45.
  49. Chauvet, Marcelle & Senyuz, Zeynep, 2008. "A Joint Dynamic Bi-Factor Model of the Yield Curve and the Economy as a Predictor of Business Cycles," MPRA Paper 15076, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised Apr 2009.
  50. Ghysels, Eric, 1994. "On the Periodic Structure of the Business Cycle," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 12(3), pages 289-298, July.
  51. Franses, Philip Hans & Paap, Richard, 1999. "Does Seasonality Influence the Dating of Business Cycle Turning Points?," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 21(1), pages 79-92, January.
  52. Vasilios Plakandaras & Juncal Cunado & Rangan Gupta & Mark E. Wohar, 2016. "Do Leading Indicators Forecast U.S. Recessions? A Nonlinear Re-Evaluation Using Historical Data," Working Papers 201685, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
  53. Morris Goldstein & Graciela Kaminsky & Carmen Reinhart, 2017. "Methodology and Empirical Results," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: TRADE CURRENCIES AND FINANCE, chapter 11, pages 397-436, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
  54. Chauvet, Marcelle, 2002. "The Brazilian Business and Growth Cycles," Revista Brasileira de Economia - RBE, EPGE Brazilian School of Economics and Finance - FGV EPGE (Brazil), vol. 56(1), January.
  55. Theo Offerman & Asa B. Palley, 2016. "Lossed in translation: an off-the-shelf method to recover probabilistic beliefs from loss-averse agents," Experimental Economics, Springer;Economic Science Association, vol. 19(1), pages 1-30, March.
  56. Baetje, Fabian & Menkhoff, Lukas, 2013. "Macro determinants of U.S. stock market risk premia in bull and bear markets," Hannover Economic Papers (HEP) dp-520, Leibniz Universität Hannover, Wirtschaftswissenschaftliche Fakultät.
  57. Evan F. Koenig & Kenneth M. Emery, 1994. "Why The Composite Index Of Leading Indicators Does Not Lead," Contemporary Economic Policy, Western Economic Association International, vol. 12(1), pages 52-66, January.
  58. Apoteker, Thierry & Barthelemy, Sylvain, 2005. "Predicting financial crises in emerging markets using a composite non-parametric model," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 6(4), pages 363-375, December.
  59. Rolando F. Peláez, 2015. "A recession‐and‐state forecasting model," Southern Economic Journal, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 81(4), pages 1025-1039, April.
  60. Allan P. Layton, 1997. "Do Leading Indicators Really Predict Australian Business Cycle Turning Points?," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 73(222), pages 258-269, September.
  61. Allan P. Layton, 1994. "Further on the Nature of the Australian Business Cycle," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 70(208), pages 12-18, March.
  62. Candy Mei Fung Tang & Brian King & Stephen Pratt, 2017. "Predicting hotel occupancies with public data," Tourism Economics, , vol. 23(5), pages 1096-1113, August.
  63. Wu, Shue-Jen & Lee, Wei-Ming, 2015. "Predicting severe simultaneous bear stock markets using macroeconomic variables as leading indicators," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 13(C), pages 196-204.
  64. Konstantin A. Kholodilin, 2005. "Forecasting the Turns of German Business Cycle: Dynamic Bi-factor Model with Markov Switching," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 494, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
  65. Nektarios Aslanidis & Andrea Cipollini, 2007. "Leading indicator properties of the US corporate spreads," Money Macro and Finance (MMF) Research Group Conference 2006 115, Money Macro and Finance Research Group.
  66. Mike Artis & Hans-Martin Krolzig & Juan Toro, 2004. "The European business cycle," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 56(1), pages 1-44, January.
  67. Oscar Claveria & Salvador Torra, 2013. "“Forecasting Business surveys indicators: neural networks vs. time series models”," AQR Working Papers 201312, University of Barcelona, Regional Quantitative Analysis Group, revised Nov 2013.
  68. Tjeerd M. Boonman & Jan P. A. M. Jacobs & Gerard H. Kuper & Alberto Romero, 2019. "Early Warning Systems for Currency Crises with Real-Time Data," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 30(4), pages 813-835, September.
  69. Oscar Claveria & Enric Monte & Salvador Torra, 2015. "“Self-organizing map analysis of agents' expectations. Different patterns of anticipation of the 2008 financial crisis”," IREA Working Papers 201511, University of Barcelona, Research Institute of Applied Economics, revised Mar 2015.
  70. Giorgio Canarella & Stephen M. Miller, 2016. "Inflation Persistence and Structural Breaks: The Experience of Inflation Targeting Countries and the US," Working papers 2016-21, University of Connecticut, Department of Economics.
  71. Konstantin A. Kholodilin, 2006. "Using the Dynamic Bi-Factor Model with Markov Switching to Predict the Cyclical Turns in the Large European Economies," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 554, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
  72. Marcelle Chauvet & Zeynep Senyuz, 2012. "A Dynamic Factor Model of the Yield Curve as a Predictor of the Economy," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2012-32, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  73. Mönch, Emanuel & Stein, Tobias, 2021. "Equity premium predictability over the business cycle," Discussion Papers 25/2021, Deutsche Bundesbank.
  74. repec:cuf:journl:y:2013:v:14:i:3:kaminsky is not listed on IDEAS
  75. Layton, Allan P., 1998. "A further test of the influence of leading indicators on the probability of US business cycle phase shifts," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 14(1), pages 63-70, March.
  76. Allaj, Erindi & Sanfelici, Simona, 2023. "Early Warning Systems for identifying financial instability," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 39(4), pages 1777-1803.
  77. K. Batu Tunay, 2010. "Banking Crises and Early Warning Systems: A Model Suggestion for Turkish Banking Sector," Journal of BRSA Banking and Financial Markets, Banking Regulation and Supervision Agency, vol. 4(1), pages 9-46.
  78. Tjeerd M. Boonman & Jan P. A. M. Jacobs & Gerard H. Kuper, 2017. "An Early Warning System for currency crises in Argentina and Brazil 1990-2009," EconoQuantum, Revista de Economia y Finanzas, Universidad de Guadalajara, Centro Universitario de Ciencias Economico Administrativas, Departamento de Metodos Cuantitativos y Maestria en Economia., vol. 14(2), pages 47-68, Julio-Dic.
  79. George Athanasopoulos & Heather M. Anderson & Farshid Vahid, 2007. "Nonlinear autoregressive leading indicator models of output in G-7 countries," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 22(1), pages 63-87.
  80. J.D. Hollingworth, 1997. "Leading Indicators of Australian Recessions: Part 2," Economics Discussion / Working Papers 97-17, The University of Western Australia, Department of Economics.
  81. Shyh-Wei Chen, 2006. "Enhanced reliability of the leading indicator in identifying turning points in Taiwan? an evaluation," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 5(10), pages 1-17.
  82. Andrew Filardo, 2004. "The 2001 US recession: what did recession prediction models tell us?," BIS Working Papers 148, Bank for International Settlements.
  83. Rebecca A Emerson & David Hendry, 1994. "An evaluation of forecasting using leading indicators," Economics Papers 5., Economics Group, Nuffield College, University of Oxford.
  84. Broersma, L., 1992. "A bankruptcy constraint and asymmetric influence of the real interest rate on unemployment," Serie Research Memoranda 0038, VU University Amsterdam, Faculty of Economics, Business Administration and Econometrics.
  85. repec:hal:wpspec:info:hdl:2441/f4rshpf3v1umfa09lat09b1bg is not listed on IDEAS
  86. Beutel, Johannes & List, Sophia & von Schweinitz, Gregor, 2019. "Does machine learning help us predict banking crises?," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 45(C).
  87. Lin, Chin-Shien & Khan, Haider A. & Chang, Ruei-Yuan & Wang, Ying-Chieh, 2008. "A new approach to modeling early warning systems for currency crises: Can a machine-learning fuzzy expert system predict the currency crises effectively?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 27(7), pages 1098-1121, November.
  88. Paul Hubert, 2015. "Do Central Bank Forecasts Influence Private Agents? Forecasting Performance versus Signals," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 47(4), pages 771-789, June.
  89. Chen, Nan-Kuang & Chen, Shiu-Sheng & Chou, Yu-Hsi, 2017. "Further evidence on bear market predictability: The role of the external finance premium," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 50(C), pages 106-121.
  90. Christensen, Ian & Li, Fuchun, 2014. "Predicting financial stress events: A signal extraction approach," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 14(C), pages 54-65.
  91. Graciela L. Kaminsky, 2003. "Varieties of Currency Crises," NBER Working Papers 10193, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  92. repec:hal:spmain:info:hdl:2441/f4rshpf3v1umfa09lat09b1bg is not listed on IDEAS
  93. Pablo Galaso & Sandra Rodriguez, 2014. "A composite leading cycle indicator for Uruguay," Documentos de Trabajo (working papers) 14-09, Instituto de Economía - IECON.
  94. Christiansen, Charlotte & Eriksen, Jonas Nygaard & Møller, Stig Vinther, 2014. "Forecasting US recessions: The role of sentiment," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 49(C), pages 459-468.
  95. Vincent, BODART & Konstantin A., KHOLODILIN & Fati, SHADMAN-MEHTA, 2003. "Dating and Forecasting the Belgian Business Cycle," LIDAM Discussion Papers IRES 2003018, Université catholique de Louvain, Institut de Recherches Economiques et Sociales (IRES).
  96. Miquel Clar & Juan-Carlos Duque & Rosina Moreno, 2007. "Forecasting business and consumer surveys indicators-a time-series models competition," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 39(20), pages 2565-2580.
  97. repec:spo:wpecon:info:hdl:2441/f4rshpf3v1umfa09lat09b1bg is not listed on IDEAS
  98. Ullrich Heilemann & Herman Stekler, 2010. "Perspectives on Evaluating Macroeconomic Forecasts," Working Papers 2010-002, The George Washington University, Department of Economics, H. O. Stekler Research Program on Forecasting.
  99. Wong, Shirly Siew-Ling & Puah, Chin-Hong & Abu Mansor, Shazali & Liew, Venus Khim-Sen, 2012. "Early warning indicator of economic vulnerability," MPRA Paper 39944, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  100. Galbraith, John W. & van Norden, Simon, 2011. "Kernel-based calibration diagnostics for recession and inflation probability forecasts," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 27(4), pages 1041-1057, October.
  101. Clements, Michael P. & Harvey, David I., 2011. "Combining probability forecasts," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 27(2), pages 208-223, April.
  102. Chauvet, Marcelle & Senyuz, Zeynep, 2016. "A dynamic factor model of the yield curve components as a predictor of the economy," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 32(2), pages 324-343.
  103. Döpke, Jörg, 1998. "Leading indicators for Euroland's business cycle," Kiel Working Papers 886, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
  104. Paul Hubert, 2011. "Do central banks forecast influence private agents ? Forecasting performance vs. signals," Documents de Travail de l'OFCE 2011-20, Observatoire Francais des Conjonctures Economiques (OFCE).
  105. Dreger, Christian & Kholodilin, Konstantin A., 2013. "An early warning system to predict speculative house price bubbles," Economics - The Open-Access, Open-Assessment E-Journal (2007-2020), Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel), vol. 7, pages 1-26.
  106. Gwen Eudey & Roberto Perli, 1999. "Regime-switching in expectations over the business cycle," Working Papers 99-17, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.
  107. Chen, Shyh-Wei & Shen, Chung-Hua, 2006. "When Wall Street conflicts with Main Street--The divergent movements of Taiwan's leading indicators," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 22(2), pages 317-339.
  108. Beutel, Johannes & List, Sophia & von Schweinitz, Gregor, 2018. "An evaluation of early warning models for systemic banking crises: Does machine learning improve predictions?," Discussion Papers 48/2018, Deutsche Bundesbank.
  109. Dieter Gerdesmeier & Hans‐Eggert Reimers & Barbara Roffia, 2010. "Asset Price Misalignments and the Role of Money and Credit," International Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 13(3), pages 377-407, December.
  110. Helmut Herwartz & Konstantin A. Kholodilin, 2014. "In‐Sample and Out‐of‐Sample Prediction of stock Market Bubbles: Cross‐Sectional Evidence," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 33(1), pages 15-31, January.
  111. Christiansen, Charlotte & Eriksen, Jonas N. & Møller, Stig V., 2019. "Negative house price co-movements and US recessions," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 77(C), pages 382-394.
  112. Reinhart, Carmen & Reinhart, Vincent, 1996. "Forecasting turning points in Canada," MPRA Paper 13884, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  113. Francis X. Diebold & Jose A. Lopez, 1995. "Forecast evaluation and combination," Research Paper 9525, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
  114. Turgut Kisinbay & Chikako Baba, 2011. "Predicting Recessions: A New Approach for Identifying Leading Indicators and Forecast Combinations," IMF Working Papers 2011/235, International Monetary Fund.
  115. Lindor Esteban Martín Lucero, 2001. "Reseña:Indice de Producción Industrial y sus ciclos," Working Papers 70, FIEL.
  116. Bhanot, Karan, 2005. "What causes mean reversion in corporate bond index spreads? The impact of survival," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 29(6), pages 1385-1403, June.
  117. Lopez, Jose A, 2001. "Evaluating the Predictive Accuracy of Volatility Models," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 20(2), pages 87-109, March.
  118. Ng, Eric C.Y., 2012. "Forecasting US recessions with various risk factors and dynamic probit models," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 34(1), pages 112-125.
  119. Henri Nyberg, 2018. "Forecasting US interest rates and business cycle with a nonlinear regime switching VAR model," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 37(1), pages 1-15, January.
  120. Kajal Lahiri & J. George Wang, 2007. "The value of probability forecasts as predictors of cyclical downturns," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 14(1), pages 11-14.
  121. Zhang, Xinyu & Lu, Zudi & Zou, Guohua, 2013. "Adaptively combined forecasting for discrete response time series," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 176(1), pages 80-91.
  122. Pons Novell, J., 2002. "Ciclo de la economía española y contenido informativo de los tipos de interés," Estudios de Economia Aplicada, Estudios de Economia Aplicada, vol. 20, pages 583-598, Diciembre.
  123. Laurent L. Pauwels & Andrey L. Vasnev, 2017. "Forecast combination for discrete choice models: predicting FOMC monetary policy decisions," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 52(1), pages 229-254, February.
  124. Simon Hayes, 2001. "Leading indicator information in UK equity prices: an assessment of economic tracking portfolios," Bank of England working papers 137, Bank of England.
  125. James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 1988. "A Probability Model of The Coincident Economic Indicators," NBER Working Papers 2772, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  126. Gibson, Heather D. & Lazaretou, Sophia, 2001. "Leading inflation indicators for Greece," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 18(3), pages 325-348, August.
  127. Kholodilin, Konstantin A. & Yao, Vincent W., 2005. "Measuring and predicting turning points using a dynamic bi-factor model," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 21(3), pages 525-537.
  128. Carriero, Andrea & Marcellino, Massimiliano, 2007. "A comparison of methods for the construction of composite coincident and leading indexes for the UK," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 23(2), pages 219-236.
  129. repec:ebl:ecbull:v:3:y:2007:i:46:p:1-12 is not listed on IDEAS
  130. Terence C. Mills & Ping Wang, 2003. "Multivariate Markov Switching Common Factor Models for the UK," Bulletin of Economic Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 55(2), pages 177-193, April.
  131. repec:ebl:ecbull:v:3:y:2002:i:26:p:1-18 is not listed on IDEAS
  132. Domian, Dale L. & Louton, David A., 1995. "Business cycle asymmetry and the stock market," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 35(4), pages 451-466.
  133. Duprey, Thibaut & Klaus, Benjamin, 2022. "Early warning or too late? A (pseudo-)real-time identification of leading indicators of financial stress," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 138(C).
  134. Camacho, Maximo & Pérez Quirós, Gabriel, 2000. "This is what the US leading indicators lead," Working Paper Series 0027, European Central Bank.
  135. Alejandro Gaytán & Christian A. Johnson, 2002. "A Review of the Literature on Early Warning Systems for Banking Crises," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 183, Central Bank of Chile.
  136. Nihat Tak & Adem Gök, 2022. "Dating currency crises and designing early warning systems: Meta‐possibilistic fuzzy index functions," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 27(3), pages 3773-3790, July.
  137. repec:ebl:ecbull:v:5:y:2006:i:10:p:1-17 is not listed on IDEAS
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