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Information and efficiency: an empirical study of a fixed odds betting market

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  1. Hojun Sung & Brian M. Mills, 2018. "Estimation of game-level attendance in major league soccer: Outcome uncertainty and absolute quality considerations," Sport Management Review, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 21(5), pages 519-532, December.
  2. Igan, Deniz & Pinheiro, Marcelo & Smith, John, 2011. ""White men can't jump," but would you bet on it?," MPRA Paper 31469, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  3. Oliver Merz & Raphael Flepp & Egon Franck, 2019. "Does sentiment harm market efficiency? An empirical analysis using a betting exchange setting," Working Papers 381, University of Zurich, Department of Business Administration (IBW).
  4. de Dios Tena, Juan & Forrest, David, 2007. "Within-season dismissal of football coaches: Statistical analysis of causes and consequences," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 181(1), pages 362-373, August.
  5. Braun, Sebastian & Kvasnicka, Michael, 2008. "Against All Odds? – National Sentiment and Wagering on European Football," Ruhr Economic Papers 42, RWI - Leibniz-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, Ruhr-University Bochum, TU Dortmund University, University of Duisburg-Essen.
  6. Lahvicka, Jiri, 2013. "The Fibonacci Strategy Revisited: Can You Really Make Money by Betting on Soccer Draws?," MPRA Paper 47649, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  7. Dennis Coates & Brad R. Humphreys & Li Zhou, 2014. "Reference-Dependent Preferences, Loss Aversion, And Live Game Attendance," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 52(3), pages 959-973, July.
  8. Palomino, F.A. & Renneboog, L.D.R. & Zhang, C., 2005. "Stock Price Reactions to Short-Lived Public Information : The Case of Betting Odds," Other publications TiSEM 059428e3-2ed6-42e2-8d3c-2, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
  9. Palomino, Frederic & Renneboog, Luc & Zhang, Chendi, 2009. "Information salience, investor sentiment, and stock returns: The case of British soccer betting," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 15(3), pages 368-387, June.
  10. J. K. Ashton & B. Gerrard & R. Hudson, 2011. "Do national soccer results really impact on the stock market?," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 43(26), pages 3709-3717.
  11. Jakobsson, Robin & Karlsson, Niklas, 2007. "Testing Market Efficiency in a Fixed Odds Betting Market," Working Papers 2007:12, Örebro University, School of Business.
  12. Christian Deutscher & Bernd Frick & Oliver Gürtler & Joachim Prinz, 2013. "Sabotage in Tournaments with Heterogeneous Contestants: Empirical Evidence from the Soccer Pitch," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 115(4), pages 1138-1157, October.
  13. Luca De Angelis & J. James Reade, 2022. "Home advantage and mispricing in indoor sports’ ghost games: the case of European basketball," Economics Discussion Papers em-dp2022-01, Department of Economics, University of Reading.
  14. Stekler, H.O. & Sendor, David & Verlander, Richard, 2010. "Issues in sports forecasting," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 26(3), pages 606-621, July.
    • Herman O. Stekler & David Sendor & Richard Verlander, 2009. "Issues in Sports Forecasting," Working Papers 2009-002, The George Washington University, Department of Economics, H. O. Stekler Research Program on Forecasting.
  15. Goddard, John, 2005. "Regression models for forecasting goals and match results in association football," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 21(2), pages 331-340.
  16. Egon Franck & Erwin Verbeek & Stephan Nüesch, 2013. "Inter-market Arbitrage in Betting," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 80(318), pages 300-325, April.
  17. Giovanni Angelini & Luca De Angelis, 2017. "PARX model for football match predictions," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 36(7), pages 795-807, November.
  18. Egon Franck & Erwin Verbeek & Stephan Nüesch, 2011. "Sentimental Preferences and the Organizational Regime of Betting Markets," Southern Economic Journal, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 78(2), pages 502-518, October.
  19. Nicos Zafiris, 2016. "Is There Such A Thing As A Safe Bet ?," Journal of Gambling Business and Economics, University of Buckingham Press, vol. 10(1), pages 40-65.
  20. Audas, Rick & Dobson, Stephen & Goddard, John, 2002. "The impact of managerial change on team performance in professional sports," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 54(6), pages 633-650.
  21. Ioannis Asimakopoulos & John Goddard, 2004. "Forecasting football results and the efficiency of fixed-odds betting," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 23(1), pages 51-66.
  22. Humphreys, Brad & Zhou, Li, 2014. "The Louis-Schmelling Paradox and the League Standing Effect Reconsidered," Working Papers 2014-5, University of Alberta, Department of Economics.
  23. Braun, Sebastian & Kvasnicka, Michael, 2013. "National Sentiment and Economic Behavior: Evidence From Online Betting on European Football," EconStor Open Access Articles and Book Chapters, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, vol. 14(1), pages 45-64.
  24. Bäker Agnes & Vetter Karin & Mechtel Mario, 2012. "Beating thy Neighbor: Derby Effects in German Professional Soccer," Journal of Economics and Statistics (Jahrbuecher fuer Nationaloekonomie und Statistik), De Gruyter, vol. 232(3), pages 224-246, June.
  25. Kai Fischer & Justus Haucap, 2020. "Betting Market Efficiency in the Presence of Unfamiliar Shocks: The Case of Ghost Games during the Covid-19 Pandemic," CESifo Working Paper Series 8526, CESifo.
  26. Hofer, Vera & Leitner, Johannes, 2017. "Relative pricing of binary options in live soccer betting markets," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 76(C), pages 66-85.
  27. Jeremy Sandford & Paul Shea, 2013. "Optimal Setting of Point Spreads," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 80(317), pages 149-170, January.
  28. Gross, Johannes & Rebeggiani, Luca, 2018. "Chance or Ability? The Efficiency of the Football Betting Market Revisited," MPRA Paper 87230, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  29. Corona Francisco & Wiper Michael Peter & Horrillo Juan de Dios Tena, 2017. "On the importance of the probabilistic model in identifying the most decisive games in a tournament," Journal of Quantitative Analysis in Sports, De Gruyter, vol. 13(1), pages 11-23, March.
  30. Steven D. Levitt, 2003. "How Do Markets Function? An Empirical Analysis of Gambling on the National Football League," NBER Working Papers 9422, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  31. Raphael Flepp & Stephan Nüesch & Egon Franck, 2013. "Liquidity, Market Efficiency and the Influence of Noise Traders: Quasi-Experimental Evidence from the Betting Industry," Working Papers 341, University of Zurich, Department of Business Administration (IBW).
  32. Marshall, Ben R., 2009. "How quickly is temporary market inefficiency removed?," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 49(3), pages 917-930, August.
  33. David Forrest & Robert Simmons & Babatunde Buraimo, 2005. "Outcome Uncertainty And The Couch Potato Audience," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 52(4), pages 641-661, September.
  34. Alexis Direr, 2013. "Are betting markets efficient? Evidence from European Football Championships," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 45(3), pages 343-356, January.
  35. Coates, Dennis & Humphreys, Brad & Zhou, Li, 2012. "Outcome Uncertainty, Reference-Dependent Preferences and Live Game Attendance," Working Papers 2012-7, University of Alberta, Department of Economics.
  36. Guy Elaad, 2020. "Home-field advantage and biased prediction markets in English soccer," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 27(14), pages 1170-1174, July.
  37. David Forrest & Robert Simmons, 2008. "Sentiment in the betting market on Spanish football," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 40(1), pages 119-126.
  38. Bernardo, Giovanni & Ruberti, Massimo & Verona, Roberto, 2015. "Testing semi-strong efficiency in a fixed odds betting market: Evidence from principal European football leagues," MPRA Paper 66414, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  39. Adrian R. Bell & Chris Brooks & David Matthews & Charles Sutcliffe, 2012. "Over the moon or sick as a parrot? The effects of football results on a club's share price," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 44(26), pages 3435-3452, September.
  40. Kai Fischer & Justus Haucap, 2022. "Home advantage in professional soccer and betting market efficiency: The role of spectator crowds," Kyklos, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 75(2), pages 294-316, May.
  41. Brad R. Humphreys & Li Zhou, 2015. "The Louis–Schmelling Paradox and the League Standing Effect Reconsidered," Journal of Sports Economics, , vol. 16(8), pages 835-852, December.
  42. Bernardo, Giovanni & Ruberti, Massimo & Verona, Roberto, 2019. "Semi-strong inefficiency in the fixed odds betting market: Underestimating the positive impact of head coach replacement in the main European soccer leagues," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 71(C), pages 239-246.
  43. Igan, Deniz & Pinheiro, Marcelo & Smith, John, 2012. "Racial biases and market outcomes: "White men can't jump," but would you bet on it?," MPRA Paper 36069, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  44. Isabel Abinzano & Luis Muga & Rafael Santamaria, 2019. "Hidden Power of Trading Activity: The FLB in Tennis Betting Exchanges," Journal of Sports Economics, , vol. 20(2), pages 261-285, February.
  45. Buhagiar, Ranier & Cortis, Dominic & Newall, Philip W.S., 2018. "Why do some soccer bettors lose more money than others?," Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Finance, Elsevier, vol. 18(C), pages 85-93.
  46. Angelini, Giovanni & De Angelis, Luca, 2019. "Efficiency of online football betting markets," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 35(2), pages 712-721.
  47. Montone, Maurizio, 2021. "Optimal pricing in the online betting market," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 186(C), pages 344-363.
  48. Andrew Grant & David Johnstone & Oh Kang Kwon, 2008. "Optimal Betting Strategies for Simultaneous Games," Decision Analysis, INFORMS, vol. 5(1), pages 10-18, March.
  49. Elaad, Guy & Reade, J. James & Singleton, Carl, 2020. "Information, prices and efficiency in an online betting market," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 35(C).
  50. Arne Feddersen & Brad R. Humphreys & Brian P. Soebbing, 2018. "Sentiment Bias in National Basketball Association Betting," Journal of Sports Economics, , vol. 19(4), pages 455-472, May.
  51. Richard Borghesi, 2008. "Weather biases in the NFL totals market," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 18(12), pages 947-953.
  52. Raphael Flepp & Stephan Nüesch & Egon Franck, 2016. "Does Bettor Sentiment Affect Bookmaker Pricing?," Journal of Sports Economics, , vol. 17(1), pages 3-11, January.
  53. Angelini, Giovanni & De Angelis, Luca & Singleton, Carl, 2022. "Informational efficiency and behaviour within in-play prediction markets," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 38(1), pages 282-299.
  54. Bruno Deschamps, 2008. "Betting Markets Efficiency: Evidence From European Football," Journal of Gambling Business and Economics, University of Buckingham Press, vol. 2(1), pages 66-76, May.
  55. Mario Mechtel & Agnes Bäker & Tobias Brändle & Karin Vetter, 2011. "Red Cards," Journal of Sports Economics, , vol. 12(6), pages 621-646, December.
  56. Maschke Mario & Schmidt Ulrich, 2011. "Das Wettmonopol in Deutschland: Status quo und Reformansätze," Zeitschrift für Wirtschaftspolitik, De Gruyter, vol. 60(1), pages 110-124, April.
  57. Boeri, Tito & Severgnini, Battista, 2008. "The Italian Job: Match Rigging, Career Concerns and Media Concentration in Serie A," IZA Discussion Papers 3745, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
  58. Pascal Flurin Meier & Raphael Flepp & Egon Franck, 2021. "Are sports betting markets semistrong efficient? Evidence from the COVID-19 pandemic," Working Papers 387, University of Zurich, Department of Business Administration (IBW).
  59. Brian P. Soebbing & Pamela Wicker & Daniel Weimar & Johannes Orlowski, 2021. "How do Bookmakers Interpret Running Performance of Teams in Previous Games? Evidence From the Football Bundesliga," Journal of Sports Economics, , vol. 22(3), pages 231-250, April.
  60. Hassanniakalager, Arman & Sermpinis, Georgios & Stasinakis, Charalampos & Verousis, Thanos, 2020. "A conditional fuzzy inference approach in forecasting," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 283(1), pages 196-216.
  61. Constantinou Anthony Costa & Fenton Norman Elliott, 2013. "Determining the level of ability of football teams by dynamic ratings based on the relative discrepancies in scores between adversaries," Journal of Quantitative Analysis in Sports, De Gruyter, vol. 9(1), pages 37-50, March.
  62. David Winkelmann & Marius Ötting & Christian Deutscher & Tomasz Makarewicz, 2024. "Are Betting Markets Inefficient? Evidence From Simulations and Real Data," Journal of Sports Economics, , vol. 25(1), pages 54-97, January.
  63. Stewart Hodges & Hao Lin & Lan Liu, 2013. "Fixed Odds Bookmaking with Stochastic Betting Demands," European Financial Management, European Financial Management Association, vol. 19(2), pages 399-417, March.
  64. Lionel Page, 2012. "‘It ain’t over till it's over.’ Yogi Berra bias on prediction markets," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 44(1), pages 81-92, January.
  65. Sathya Ramesh & Ragib Mostofa & Marco Bornstein & John Dobelman, 2019. "Beating the House: Identifying Inefficiencies in Sports Betting Markets," Papers 1910.08858, arXiv.org, revised Oct 2019.
  66. Igan, Deniz & Pinheiro, Marcelo & Smith, John, 2015. "A study of a market anomaly: “White Men Can’t Jump”, but would you bet on it?," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 113(C), pages 13-25.
  67. Moonsup Hyun & Gareth J. Jones & Wonsok (Frank) Jee & Jeremy S. Jordan & James Du & Yohan Lee, 2023. "Revisiting the Uncertainty of Outcome Hypothesis and the Loss Aversion Hypothesis in the National Basketball Association: Adding a Predicted Game Quality Perspective," Journal of Sports Economics, , vol. 24(8), pages 1076-1096, December.
  68. Ó Ceallaigh, Diarmaid & Timmons, Shane & Robertson, Deirdre & Lunn, Pete, 2023. "Problem gambling: A narrative review of important policy-relevant issues," Research Series, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI), number SUSTAT119, June.
  69. Ray Bachan & Barry Reilly & Robert Witt, 2014. "Team performance and race: evidence from the English and French national soccer teams," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 46(13), pages 1535-1546, May.
  70. Bruno Deschamps & Olivier Gergaud, 2007. "Efficiency in Betting Markets: Evidence from English Football," Journal of Prediction Markets, University of Buckingham Press, vol. 1(1), pages 61-73, February.
  71. Tobias J. Moskowitz, 2021. "Asset Pricing and Sports Betting," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 76(6), pages 3153-3209, December.
  72. Forrest, David & Goddard, John & Simmons, Robert, 2005. "Odds-setters as forecasters: The case of English football," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 21(3), pages 551-564.
  73. Ruud H. Koning & Renske Zijm, 2023. "Betting market efficiency and prediction in binary choice models," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 325(1), pages 135-148, June.
  74. Hojun Sung & Hyunwoong Pyun, 2023. "Disaggregated Attendance Demand: Comparing Daily Ticket Purchasers and Season Ticket Holders in K-League 1," Journal of Sports Economics, , vol. 24(6), pages 717-736, August.
  75. Nikolaos Vlastakis & George Dotsis & Raphael N. Markellos, 2009. "How efficient is the European football betting market? Evidence from arbitrage and trading strategies," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 28(5), pages 426-444.
  76. Hvattum, Lars Magnus & Arntzen, Halvard, 2010. "Using ELO ratings for match result prediction in association football," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 26(3), pages 460-470, July.
  77. Luca De Angelis & J. James Reade, 2023. "Home advantage and mispricing in indoor sports’ ghost games: the case of European basketball," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 325(1), pages 391-418, June.
  78. Sebastian Braun & Michael Kvasnicka, 2013. "National Sentiment and Economic Behavior," Journal of Sports Economics, , vol. 14(1), pages 45-64, February.
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