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The Fibonacci Strategy Revisited: Can You Really Make Money by Betting on Soccer Draws?

  • Lahvicka, Jiri

This article investigates the strategy of betting on soccer draws using the Fibonacci sequence. In the previous literature, this strategy has been found to be both simple and profitable, indicating that the soccer betting market is not efficient. The strategy is tested both in a simulated market and on a real data set of almost 60,000 European soccer matches. Contrary to the previous findings in the literature, all tested versions of the Fibonacci betting strategy are found to lose money.

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File URL: http://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/47649/1/MPRA_paper_47649.pdf
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Paper provided by University Library of Munich, Germany in its series MPRA Paper with number 47649.

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Date of creation: 17 Jun 2013
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Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:47649
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  1. Ioannis Asimakopoulos & John Goddard, 2004. "Forecasting football results and the efficiency of fixed-odds betting," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 23(1), pages 51-66.
  2. Nikolaos Vlastakis & George Dotsis & Raphael N. Markellos, 2009. "How efficient is the European football betting market? Evidence from arbitrage and trading strategies," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 28(5), pages 426-444.
  3. Raymond D. Sauer, 1998. "The Economics of Wagering Markets," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 36(4), pages 2021-2064, December.
  4. Tim Kuypers, 2000. "Information and efficiency: an empirical study of a fixed odds betting market," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 32(11), pages 1353-1363.
  5. Ender Demir & Hakan Danis & Ugo Rigoni, 2012. "Is the Soccer Betting Market Efficient? A Cross-Country Investigation Using the Fibonacci Strategy," Journal of Gambling Business and Economics, University of Buckingham Press, vol. 6(2), pages 29-49, August.
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