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The Fibonacci Strategy Revisited: Can You Really Make Money by Betting on Soccer Draws?

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  • Lahvicka, Jiri

Abstract

This article investigates the strategy of betting on soccer draws using the Fibonacci sequence. In the previous literature, this strategy has been found to be both simple and profitable, indicating that the soccer betting market is not efficient. The strategy is tested both in a simulated market and on a real data set of almost 60,000 European soccer matches. Contrary to the previous findings in the literature, all tested versions of the Fibonacci betting strategy are found to lose money.

Suggested Citation

  • Lahvicka, Jiri, 2013. "The Fibonacci Strategy Revisited: Can You Really Make Money by Betting on Soccer Draws?," MPRA Paper 47649, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:47649
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    File URL: https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/47649/1/MPRA_paper_47649.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    3. Thaler, Richard H & Ziemba, William T, 1988. "Parimutuel Betting Markets: Racetracks and Lotteries," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 2(2), pages 161-174, Spring.
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    6. Ioannis Asimakopoulos & John Goddard, 2004. "Forecasting football results and the efficiency of fixed-odds betting," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 23(1), pages 51-66.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Fibonacci betting strategy; market efficiency;

    JEL classification:

    • G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies; Insider Trading
    • L83 - Industrial Organization - - Industry Studies: Services - - - Sports; Gambling; Restaurants; Recreation; Tourism

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