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The Gambler’s Fallacy and the Hot Hand: Empirical Data from Casinos

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Cited by:

  1. Atreya, Ajita & Ferreira, Susana & Michel-Kerjan, Erwann, 2015. "What drives households to buy flood insurance? New evidence from Georgia," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 117(C), pages 153-161.
  2. Dohmen, Thomas & Falk, Armin & Huffman, David & Marklein, Felix & Sunde, Uwe, 2009. "Biased probability judgment: Evidence of incidence and relationship to economic outcomes from a representative sample," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 72(3), pages 903-915, December.
  3. Kaivanto, Kim & Kroll, Eike B., 2012. "Negative recency, randomization device choice, and reduction of compound lotteries," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 115(2), pages 263-267.
  4. Subhasish Chowdhury & Dan Kovenock & Roman Sheremeta, 2013. "An experimental investigation of Colonel Blotto games," Economic Theory, Springer;Society for the Advancement of Economic Theory (SAET), vol. 52(3), pages 833-861, April.
  5. Suetens, Sigrid & Tyran, Jean-Robert, 2012. "The gambler's fallacy and gender," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 83(1), pages 118-124.
  6. Roman M. Sheremeta, 2014. "Behavioral Dimensions of Contests," Working Papers 14-14, Chapman University, Economic Science Institute.
  7. Barron, Kai, 2016. "Belief updating: Does the 'good-news, bad-news' asymmetry extend to purely financial domains?," Discussion Papers, Research Unit: Economics of Change SP II 2016-309, WZB Berlin Social Science Center.
  8. Hopfensitz, Astrid, 2009. "Previous Outcomes and Reference Dependence: A Meta Study of Repeated Investment Tasks with Restricted Feedback," TSE Working Papers 09-087, Toulouse School of Economics (TSE).
  9. Bouton, Laurent & Castanheira, Micael & Llorente-Saguer, Aniol, 2016. "Divided majority and information aggregation: Theory and experiment," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 134(C), pages 114-128.
  10. Jetter, Michael & Walker, Jay K., 2015. "Game, set, and match: Do women and men perform differently in competitive situations?," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 119(C), pages 96-108.
  11. Kaivanto, Kim, 2008. "Alternation Bias and the Parameterization of Cumulative Prospect Theory," EconStor Open Access Articles, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, pages 91-107.
  12. Xiao Ma & Seung Hyun Kim & Sung S. Kim, 2014. "Online Gambling Behavior: The Impacts of Cumulative Outcomes, Recent Outcomes, and Prior Use," Information Systems Research, INFORMS, vol. 25(3), pages 511-527, September.
  13. Miller, Joshua Benjamin & Sanjurjo, Adam, 2018. "Is it a Fallacy to Believe in the Hot Hand in the NBA Three-Point Contest?," OSF Preprints dmksp, Center for Open Science.
  14. Andrey Kudryavtsev & Gil Cohen & Shlomit Hon-Snir, 2013. "“Rational” or “Intuitive”: Are Behavioral Biases Correlated Across Stock Market Investors?," Contemporary Economics, University of Economics and Human Sciences in Warsaw., vol. 7(2), June.
  15. Joshua B. Miller & Adam Sanjurjo, 2014. "A Cold Shower for the Hot Hand Fallacy," Working Papers 518, IGIER (Innocenzo Gasparini Institute for Economic Research), Bocconi University.
  16. Luisa Herbst, 2016. "Who Pays to Win Again? The Joy of Winning in Contest Experiments," Working Papers tax-mpg-rps-2016-06, Max Planck Institute for Tax Law and Public Finance.
  17. Yanlong Sun & Hongbin Wang, 2010. "Gambler's fallacy, hot hand belief, and the time of patterns," Judgment and Decision Making, Society for Judgment and Decision Making, vol. 5(2), pages 124-132, April.
  18. Kathryn Zeiler, 2019. "Mistaken about mistakes," European Journal of Law and Economics, Springer, vol. 48(1), pages 9-27, August.
  19. Joshua B. Miller & Adam Sanjurjo, 2015. "Is it a Fallacy to Believe in the Hot Hand in the NBA Three-Point Contest?," Working Papers 548, IGIER (Innocenzo Gasparini Institute for Economic Research), Bocconi University.
  20. Neszveda, G., 2019. "Essays on behavioral finance," Other publications TiSEM 05059039-5236-42a3-be1b-3, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
  21. Daniel J. Benjamin & Don A. Moore & Matthew Rabin, 2018. "Biased Beliefs About Random Samples: Evidence from Two Integrated Experiments," GRU Working Paper Series GRU_2018_014, City University of Hong Kong, Department of Economics and Finance, Global Research Unit.
  22. Sandra Schneider & Sandra Kauffman & Andrea Ranieri, 2016. "The effects of surrounding positive and negative experiences on risk taking," Judgment and Decision Making, Society for Judgment and Decision Making, vol. 11(5), pages 424-440, September.
  23. Maximilian Rüdisser & Raphael Flepp & Egon Franck, 2017. "Do casinos pay their customers to become risk-averse? Revising the house money effect in a field experiment," Experimental Economics, Springer;Economic Science Association, vol. 20(3), pages 736-754, September.
  24. Andrey Kudryavtsev, 2017. "The Effect of Stock Return Sequences on Trading Volumes," International Journal of Financial Studies, MDPI, Open Access Journal, vol. 5(4), pages 1-15, October.
  25. Howard Kunreuther & Erwann Michel-Kerjan, 2015. "Demand for fixed-price multi-year contracts: Experimental evidence from insurance decisions," Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, Springer, vol. 51(2), pages 171-194, October.
  26. Scroggin, Steven, 2007. "Exploitable actions of believers in the "law of small numbers" in repeated constant-sum games," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 133(1), pages 219-235, March.
  27. Doidge, Mary & Feng, Hongli & Hennessy, David A., 2017. "A test of the gambler’s and hot hand fallacies in farmers’ weather and market predictions," 2017 Annual Meeting, July 30-August 1, Chicago, Illinois 258457, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
  28. Roman M. Sheremeta, 2013. "Overbidding And Heterogeneous Behavior In Contest Experiments," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 27(3), pages 491-514, July.
  29. Fafchamps, Marcel & Kebede, Bereket & Zizzo, Daniel John, 2015. "Keep up with the winners: Experimental evidence on risk taking, asset integration, and peer effects," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 79(C), pages 59-79.
  30. James Sundali & Rachel Croson, 2006. "Biases in casino betting: The hot hand and the gambler's fallacy," Judgment and Decision Making, Society for Judgment and Decision Making, vol. 1, pages 1-12, July.
  31. Barash, Jori & Brocas, Isabelle & Carrillo, Juan D. & Kodaverdian, Niree, 2019. "Heuristic to Bayesian: The evolution of reasoning from childhood to adulthood," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 159(C), pages 305-322.
  32. Roman Sheremeta & Jingjing Zhang, 2010. "Can groups solve the problem of over-bidding in contests?," Social Choice and Welfare, Springer;The Society for Social Choice and Welfare, vol. 35(2), pages 175-197, July.
  33. Chen, Daniel L. & Moskowitz, Tobias J. & Shue, Kelly, 2016. "Decision-Making Under the Gambler’s Fallacy: Evidence From Asylum Courts, Loan Officers, and Baseball Umpires," IAST Working Papers 16-43, Institute for Advanced Study in Toulouse (IAST).
  34. Daniel J. Benjamin & Don A. Moore & Matthew Rabin, 2017. "Biased Beliefs About Random Samples: Evidence from Two Integrated Experiments," NBER Working Papers 23927, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  35. Andersson, Ola & Holm, Håkan J. & Wengström, Erik, 2016. "Grind or Gamble? An Experimental Analysis of Effort and Spread Seeking in Contests," Working Papers 2016:37, Lund University, Department of Economics, revised 28 Jan 2019.
  36. M. Pelé & M. Broihanne & B. Thierry & J. Call & V. Dufour, 2014. "To bet or not to bet? Decision-making under risk in non-human primates," Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, Springer, vol. 49(2), pages 141-166, October.
  37. Sheremeta, Roman, 2014. "Behavior in Contests," MPRA Paper 57451, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  38. Carlson, Kurt A. & Shu, Suzanne B., 2007. "The rule of three: How the third event signals the emergence of a streak," Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes, Elsevier, vol. 104(1), pages 113-121, September.
  39. James A. Sundali & Gregory R. Stone & Federico L. Guerrero, 2012. "The effect of setting goals and emotions on asset allocation decisions," Managerial Finance, Emerald Group Publishing, vol. 38(11), pages 1008-1031, September.
  40. Robles-Zurita, José, 2018. "Alternation bias and sums of identically distributed monetary lotteries," Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Economics (formerly The Journal of Socio-Economics), Elsevier, vol. 72(C), pages 78-85.
  41. Andrey Kudryavtsev, 2017. "The Effect of Preceding Sequences on Stock Returns," European Financial and Accounting Journal, University of Economics, Prague, vol. 2017(4), pages 83-96.
  42. Hee Mok Park & Puneet Manchanda, 2015. "When Harry Bet with Sally: An Empirical Analysis of Multiple Peer Effects in Casino Gambling Behavior," Marketing Science, INFORMS, vol. 34(2), pages 179-194, March.
  43. David Bruner & Michael McKee & Rudy Santore, 2008. "Hand in the Cookie Jar: An Experimental Investigation of Equity-Based Compensation and Managerial Fraud," Southern Economic Journal, Southern Economic Association, vol. 75(1), pages 261-278, July.
  44. Hopfensitz, Astrid & Wranik, Tanja, 2009. "How to adapt to changing markets: experience and personality in a repeated investment game," MPRA Paper 17835, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  45. Louie Rivers & Joseph Arvai, 2007. "Win Some, Lose Some: The Effect of Chronic Losses on Decision Making Under Risk," Journal of Risk Research, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 10(8), pages 1085-1099, December.
  46. Daniel J. Benjamin, 2018. "Errors in Probabilistic Reasoning and Judgment Biases," NBER Working Papers 25200, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  47. Miller, Joshua Benjamin & Sanjurjo, Adam, 2018. "A Cold Shower for the Hot Hand Fallacy: Robust Evidence that Belief in the Hot Hand is Justified," OSF Preprints pj79r, Center for Open Science.
  48. Kim Kaivanto & Eike Kroll, 2014. "Alternation bias and reduction in St. Petersburg gambles," Working Papers 65600286, Lancaster University Management School, Economics Department.
  49. Michael D. Lee & Megan N. Lee, 2017. "The relationship between crowd majority and accuracy for binary decisions," Judgment and Decision Making, Society for Judgment and Decision Making, vol. 12(4), pages 328-343, July.
  50. M.S.M. Lim & G. Jocham & L.T. Hunt & T.E.J. Behrens & R.D. Rogers, 2015. "Impulsivity and predictive control are associated with suboptimal action-selection and action-value learning in regular gamblers," International Gambling Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 15(3), pages 489-505, December.
  51. Kaywana Raeburn & Jim Engle-Warnick & Sonia Laszlo & Jian Li, 2016. "Learning in a Bandit Game and Technology Choice," CIRANO Working Papers 2016s-47, CIRANO.
  52. Jürgen Huber & Michael Kirchler & Thomas Stöckl, 2010. "The hot hand belief and the gambler’s fallacy in investment decisions under risk," Theory and Decision, Springer, vol. 68(4), pages 445-462, April.
  53. Miller, Joshua Benjamin & Sanjurjo, Adam, 2018. "How Experience Confirms the Gambler's Fallacy when Sample Size is Neglected," OSF Preprints m5xsk, Center for Open Science.
  54. Hopfensitz, Astrid, 2009. "Previous outcomes and reference dependence: A meta study of repeated investment tasks with and without restricted feedback," MPRA Paper 16096, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  55. Kniffin, Kevin M. & Mihalek, Vince, 2014. "Within-series momentum in hockey: No returns for running up the score," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 122(3), pages 400-402.
  56. repec:elg:eechap:15325_10 is not listed on IDEAS
  57. Elena Asparouhova & Michael Hertzel & Michael Lemmon, 2009. "Inference from Streaks in Random Outcomes: Experimental Evidence on Beliefs in Regime Shifting and the Law of Small Numbers," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 55(11), pages 1766-1782, November.
  58. Xiao, Erte & Houser, Daniel, 2006. "Public Implementation Eliminates Detrimental Effects of Punishment on Human Cooperation," IZA Discussion Papers 1977, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
  59. Daniel L. Chen & Tobias J. Moskowitz & Kelly Shue, 2016. "Decision Making Under the Gambler’s Fallacy: Evidence from Asylum Judges, Loan Officers, and Baseball Umpires," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 131(3), pages 1181-1242.
  60. Sigrid Suetens & Claus B. Galbo-Jørgensen & Jean-Robert Tyran, 2016. "Predicting Lotto Numbers: A Natural Experiment On The Gambler'S Fallacy And The Hot-Hand Fallacy," Journal of the European Economic Association, European Economic Association, vol. 14(3), pages 584-607, June.
  61. Aurora MURGEA, 2015. "International Confidence in Italian Economy. A Spread and Gambling Analysis," Timisoara Journal of Economics and Business, West University of Timisoara, Romania, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, vol. 8(1s), pages 70-89, February.
  62. Maximilian Rüdisser & Raphael Flepp & Egon Franck, 2017. " When do reference points update? A field analysis of the effect of prior gains and losses on risk-taking over time," Working Papers 369, University of Zurich, Department of Business Administration (IBW).
  63. SATISH KUMAR & Nisha Goyal, 2019. "Exploring Behavioural Biases among Indian Investors: A Qualitative Inquiry," Proceedings of International Academic Conferences 9010790, International Institute of Social and Economic Sciences.
  64. Miller, Joshua Benjamin & Sanjurjo, Adam, 2018. "A Bridge from Monty Hall to the Hot Hand: Restricted Choice, Selection Bias, and Empirical Practice," OSF Preprints dmgtp, Center for Open Science.
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