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The Gambler’s Fallacy and the Hot Hand: Empirical Data from Casinos

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  • Rachel Croson
  • James Sundali

Abstract

Research on decision making under uncertainty demonstrates that intuitive ideas of randomness depart systematically from the laws of chance. Two such departures involving random sequences of events have been documented in the laboratory, the gambler’s fallacy and the hot hand. This study presents results from the field, using videotapes of patrons gambling in a casino, to examine the existence and extent of these biases in naturalistic settings. We find small but significant biases in our population, consistent with those observed in the lab. Copyright Springer Science + Business Media, Inc. 2005

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  • Rachel Croson & James Sundali, 2005. "The Gambler’s Fallacy and the Hot Hand: Empirical Data from Casinos," Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, Springer, vol. 30(3), pages 195-209, May.
  • Handle: RePEc:kap:jrisku:v:30:y:2005:i:3:p:195-209
    DOI: 10.1007/s11166-005-1153-2
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    References listed on IDEAS

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