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Broad bracketing for low probability events

Author

Listed:
  • Shereen J. Chaudhry

    (University of Chicago Booth School of Business)

  • Michael Hand

    (U.S. General Services Administration Office of Evaluation Sciences)

  • Howard Kunreuther

    (University of Pennsylvania)

Abstract

Individuals tend to underprepare for rare, catastrophic events because of biases in risk perception. A simple form of broad bracketing—presenting the cumulative probability of loss over a longer time horizon—has the potential to alleviate these barriers to accurate risk perception and increase protective actions such as purchasing flood insurance. However, it is an open question whether broad bracketing effects last over time: There is evidence that descriptive probability information is ignored when decisions are based on “experience” (repeatedly and in the face of feedback), which characterizes many protective decisions. Across six incentive-compatible experiments with high stakes, we find that the broad bracketing effect does not disappear or change size when decisions are made from experience. We also advance our understanding of the mechanisms underlying broad bracketing, finding that, while cumulative probability size is a strong driver of the effect, this is dampened for larger brackets leading people to be less sensitive to probability size.

Suggested Citation

  • Shereen J. Chaudhry & Michael Hand & Howard Kunreuther, 2020. "Broad bracketing for low probability events," Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, Springer, vol. 61(3), pages 211-244, December.
  • Handle: RePEc:kap:jrisku:v:61:y:2020:i:3:d:10.1007_s11166-020-09343-4
    DOI: 10.1007/s11166-020-09343-4
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    3. Howard Kunreuther, 2020. "Risk Management Solutions for Climate Change–Induced Disasters," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 40(S1), pages 2263-2271, November.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Broad bracketing; Risk communication; Decisions from experience; Cumulative probabilities; Low-probability high-consequence events; Insurance;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • D81 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Criteria for Decision-Making under Risk and Uncertainty
    • D91 - Microeconomics - - Micro-Based Behavioral Economics - - - Role and Effects of Psychological, Emotional, Social, and Cognitive Factors on Decision Making
    • D01 - Microeconomics - - General - - - Microeconomic Behavior: Underlying Principles

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