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Business and consumer expectations and macroeconomic forecasts

Citations

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Cited by:

  1. Stephane Dees & Pedro Soares Brinca, 2013. "Consumer confidence as a predictor of consumption spending: Evidence for the United States and the Euro area," International Economics, CEPII research center, issue 134, pages 1-14.
  2. Robert Lehmann & Antje Weyh, 2016. "Forecasting Employment in Europe: Are Survey Results Helpful?," Journal of Business Cycle Research, Springer;Centre for International Research on Economic Tendency Surveys (CIRET), vol. 12(1), pages 81-117, September.
  3. Robert Lehmann, 2016. "Economic Growth and Business Cycle Forecasting at the Regional Level," ifo Beiträge zur Wirtschaftsforschung, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, number 65.
  4. Marta Necadova, 2019. "Changes in Economic Sentiment Indicators before and after Economic Crisis (Position of Visegrad Group and Germany in EU)," Central European Business Review, Prague University of Economics and Business, vol. 2019(4), pages 55-85.
  5. Lui, Silvia & Mitchell, James & Weale, Martin, 2011. "The utility of expectational data: Firm-level evidence using matched qualitative-quantitative UK surveys," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 27(4), pages 1128-1146, October.
  6. Knut Are Aastveit & Anne Sofie Jore & Francesco Ravazzolo, 2014. "Forecasting recessions in real time," Working Paper 2014/02, Norges Bank.
  7. Juhro, Solikin M. & Iyke, Bernard Njindan, 2020. "Consumer confidence and consumption expenditure in Indonesia," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 89(C), pages 367-377.
  8. repec:ptu:bdpart:a200817 is not listed on IDEAS
  9. Claveria, Oscar, 2019. "Forecasting the unemployment rate using the degree of agreement in consumer unemployment expectations," Journal for Labour Market Research, Institut für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung (IAB), Nürnberg [Institute for Employment Research, Nuremberg, Germany], vol. 53(1), pages 1-3.
  10. Aastveit, Knut Are & Jore, Anne Sofie & Ravazzolo, Francesco, 2016. "Identification and real-time forecasting of Norwegian business cycles," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 32(2), pages 283-292.
  11. Yuan-Ming Lee & Kuan-Min Wang, 2012. "Searching for a better proxy for business cycles: with supports using US data," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 44(11), pages 1433-1442, April.
  12. Lahiri, Kajal & Zhao, Yongchen, 2015. "Quantifying survey expectations: A critical review and generalization of the Carlson–Parkin method," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 31(1), pages 51-62.
  13. Robert Lehmann, 2023. "The Forecasting Power of the ifo Business Survey," Journal of Business Cycle Research, Springer;Centre for International Research on Economic Tendency Surveys (CIRET), vol. 19(1), pages 43-94, March.
  14. José R. Maria & Sara Serra, 2008. "Forecasting investment: A fishing contest using survey data," Working Papers w200818, Banco de Portugal, Economics and Research Department.
  15. Klaus Abberger & Gebhard Flaig & Wolfgang Nierhaus, 2007. "ifo Konjunkturumfragen und Konjunkturanalyse : ausgewählte methodische Aufsätze aus dem ifo Schnelldienst," ifo Forschungsberichte, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, number 33, October.
  16. Nicoletta Pashourtidou & Andreas Tsiaklis, 2011. "An Analysis of Firms’ Expectations about Activity and Employment," Cyprus Economic Policy Review, University of Cyprus, Economics Research Centre, vol. 5(1), pages 71-85, June.
  17. Oscar Claveria & Enric Monte & Salvador Torra, 2018. "A Data-Driven Approach to Construct Survey-Based Indicators by Means of Evolutionary Algorithms," Social Indicators Research: An International and Interdisciplinary Journal for Quality-of-Life Measurement, Springer, vol. 135(1), pages 1-14, January.
  18. Oscar Claveria & Enric Monte & Salvador Torra, 2017. "Let the data do the talking: Empirical modelling of survey-based expectations by means of genetic programming," IREA Working Papers 201711, University of Barcelona, Research Institute of Applied Economics, revised May 2017.
  19. Juan Gabriel Brida & Bibiana Lanzilotta & Lucía Rosich, 2019. "Common trends in producers’ expectations, the nonlinear linkage with Uruguayan GDP and its implications in economic growth forecasting," Documentos de Trabajo (working papers) 19-28, Instituto de Economía - IECON.
  20. Lui, Silvia & Mitchell, James & Weale, Martin, 2011. "The utility of expectational data: Firm-level evidence using matched qualitative-quantitative UK surveys," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 27(4), pages 1128-1146, October.
  21. Bespalova, Olga, 2018. "Forecast Evaluation in Macroeconomics and International Finance. Ph.D. thesis, George Washington University, Washington, DC, USA," MPRA Paper 117706, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  22. Robert Lehmann, 2021. "Forecasting exports across Europe: What are the superior survey indicators?," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 60(5), pages 2429-2453, May.
  23. Tatiana Cesaroni & Stefano Iezzi, 2017. "The Predictive Content of Business Survey Indicators: Evidence from SIGE," Journal of Business Cycle Research, Springer;Centre for International Research on Economic Tendency Surveys (CIRET), vol. 13(1), pages 75-104, May.
  24. Ciaran Driver, 2019. "Trade liberalization and South African manufacturing: Looking back with data," WIDER Working Paper Series wp-2019-30, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
  25. Oscar Claveria & Enric Monte & Salvador Torra, 2020. "Spectral analysis of business and consumer survey data," IREA Working Papers 202006, University of Barcelona, Research Institute of Applied Economics, revised May 2020.
  26. R. Lehmann & K. Wohlrabe, 2017. "Experts, firms, consumers or even hard data? Forecasting employment in Germany," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 24(4), pages 279-283, February.
  27. Christos Papamichael & Nicoletta Pashourtidou, 2016. "The Role of Survey Data in the Construction of Short-term GDP Growth Forecasts," Cyprus Economic Policy Review, University of Cyprus, Economics Research Centre, vol. 10(2), pages 77-109, December.
  28. Aastveit, Knut Are & Anundsen, André K. & Herstad, Eyo I., 2019. "Residential investment and recession predictability," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 35(4), pages 1790-1799.
  29. Oscar Claveria & Enric Monte & Salvador Torra, 2019. "Empirical modelling of survey-based expectations for the design of economic indicators in five European regions," Empirica, Springer;Austrian Institute for Economic Research;Austrian Economic Association, vol. 46(2), pages 205-227, May.
  30. Gillmann, Niels & Kim, Alisa, 2021. "Quantification of Economic Uncertainty: a deep learning approach," VfS Annual Conference 2021 (Virtual Conference): Climate Economics 242421, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
  31. Huber, Florian & Onorante, Luca & Pfarrhofer, Michael, 2024. "Forecasting euro area inflation using a huge panel of survey expectations," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 40(3), pages 1042-1054.
  32. Raïsa Basselier & David Antonio Liedo & Geert Langenus, 2018. "Nowcasting Real Economic Activity in the Euro Area: Assessing the Impact of Qualitative Surveys," Journal of Business Cycle Research, Springer;Centre for International Research on Economic Tendency Surveys (CIRET), vol. 14(1), pages 1-46, April.
  33. Oscar Claveria & Enric Monte & Salvador Torra, 2015. "“Self-organizing map analysis of agents' expectations. Different patterns of anticipation of the 2008 financial crisis”," IREA Working Papers 201511, University of Barcelona, Research Institute of Applied Economics, revised Mar 2015.
  34. Foroni, Claudia & Ravazzolo, Francesco & Rossini, Luca, 2023. "Are low frequency macroeconomic variables important for high frequency electricity prices?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 120(C).
  35. Nikolay Robinzonov & Klaus Wohlrabe, 2010. "Freedom of Choice in Macroeconomic Forecasting ," CESifo Economic Studies, CESifo Group, vol. 56(2), pages 192-220, June.
  36. repec:bny:wpaper:0057 is not listed on IDEAS
  37. Martinsen, Kjetil & Ravazzolo, Francesco & Wulfsberg, Fredrik, 2014. "Forecasting macroeconomic variables using disaggregate survey data," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 30(1), pages 65-77.
  38. Oscar Claveria & Enric Monte & Salvador Torra, 2017. "A new approach for the quantification of qualitative measures of economic expectations," Quality & Quantity: International Journal of Methodology, Springer, vol. 51(6), pages 2685-2706, November.
  39. Nikolay Robinzonov & Gerhard Tutz & Torsten Hothorn, 2012. "Boosting techniques for nonlinear time series models," AStA Advances in Statistical Analysis, Springer;German Statistical Society, vol. 96(1), pages 99-122, January.
  40. Petar Sorić & Ivana Lolić & Marija Logarušić, 2022. "Economic Sentiment and Aggregate Activity: A Tale of Two European Cycles," Journal of Common Market Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 60(2), pages 445-462, March.
  41. Antonello D Agostino & Caterina Mendicino & Caterina Mendicino, 2015. "Can consumer confidence provide independent information on consumption spending?," Working Papers 2, European Stability Mechanism.
  42. Kajal Lahiri & Yongchen Zhao, 2013. "Quantifying Heterogeneous Survey Expectations: The Carlson-Parkin Method Revisited," Discussion Papers 13-08, University at Albany, SUNY, Department of Economics.
  43. Claveria, Oscar & Monte, Enric & Torra, Salvador, 2020. "Economic forecasting with evolved confidence indicators," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 93(C), pages 576-585.
  44. Tsuchiya, Yoichi, 2013. "Do corporate executives have accurate predictions for the economy? A directional analysis," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 30(C), pages 167-174.
  45. María Alejandra Hernández-Montes & Ramón Hernández-Ortega & Jonathan Alexander Muñoz-Martínez, 2022. "Aporte de las expectativas de empresarios al pronóstico de las variables macroeconómicas," Borradores de Economia 1202, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
  46. Juan G Brida & Bibiana Lanzilotta & Lucia I Rosich, 2021. "On the empirical relations between producers expectations and economic growth," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 41(3), pages 1970-1982.
  47. Gabriel Caldas Montes & André Almeida, 2017. "Corruption and business confidence: a panel data analysis," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 37(4), pages 2692-2702.
  48. Oscar Claveria & Enric Monte & Salvador Torra, 2018. "“Tracking economic growth by evolving expectations via genetic programming: A two-step approach”," AQR Working Papers 201801, University of Barcelona, Regional Quantitative Analysis Group, revised Jan 2018.
  49. André Filipe Guedes Almeida & Gabriel Caldas Montes, 2020. "Effects of crime and violence on business confidence: evidence from Rio de Janeiro," Journal of Economic Studies, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 47(7), pages 1669-1688, May.
  50. Helder Ferreira Mendonça & André Filipe Guedes Almeida, 2019. "Importance of credibility for business confidence: evidence from an emerging economy," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 57(6), pages 1979-1996, December.
  51. Oscar Claveria, 2019. "Forecasting the unemployment rate using the degree of agreement in consumer unemployment expectations," Journal for Labour Market Research, Springer;Institute for Employment Research/ Institut für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung (IAB), vol. 53(1), pages 1-10, December.
  52. Claveria, Oscar & Datzira, Jordi, 2008. "Tourism Demand in Catalonia: Detecting External Economic Factors," MPRA Paper 25303, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 12 Apr 2008.
  53. Euler Pereira G. de Mello & Francisco Marcos R. Figueiredo, 2014. "Assessing the Short-term Forecasting Power of Confidence Indices," Working Papers Series 371, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.
  54. Oscar Claveria & Enric Monte & Salvador Torra, 2019. "Evolutionary Computation for Macroeconomic Forecasting," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 53(2), pages 833-849, February.
  55. Breitung, Jörg & Schmeling, Maik, 2013. "Quantifying survey expectations: What’s wrong with the probability approach?," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 29(1), pages 142-154.
  56. Sudeshna Ghosh, 2021. "Consumer Confidence and Consumer Spending in Brazil: A Nonlinear Autoregressive Distributed Lag Model Analysis," Arthaniti: Journal of Economic Theory and Practice, , vol. 20(1), pages 53-85, June.
  57. Oscar Claveria, 2021. "Forecasting with Business and Consumer Survey Data," Forecasting, MDPI, vol. 3(1), pages 1-22, February.
  58. repec:iab:iabjlr:v:53:i:1:p:art.3 is not listed on IDEAS
  59. Klein, Lawrence R. & Özmucur, Süleyman, 2010. "The use of consumer and business surveys in forecasting," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 27(6), pages 1453-1462, November.
  60. Klaus Abberger & Klaus Wohlrabe, 2006. "Einige Prognoseeigenschaften des ifo Geschäftsklimas - Ein Überblick über die neuere wissenschaftliche Literatur," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 59(22), pages 19-26, November.
  61. Pablo Castellanos García & Indalecio Pérez Díaz del Río & Jose Manuel Sanchez-Santos, 2014. "The role of confidence in the evolution of the Spanish economy: empirical evidence from an ARDL model," European Journal of Government and Economics, Europa Grande, vol. 3(2), pages 148-161, December.
  62. Mohd Haniff, NorAzza & Masih, Mansur, 2016. "Does consumer sentiment predict consumer spending in Malaysia? an autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) approach," MPRA Paper 69769, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  63. Maria Rita Ippoliti & Fabiana Sartor & Luigi Martone, 2021. "Trade surveys: qualitative and quantitative indicators," RIEDS - Rivista Italiana di Economia, Demografia e Statistica - The Italian Journal of Economic, Demographic and Statistical Studies, SIEDS Societa' Italiana di Economia Demografia e Statistica, vol. 75(4), pages 75-85, October-D.
  64. Inna S. Lola & Anton Manukov, 2020. "Forecasting Employment In Small Businesses In Russia: The Relevance Of Business Tendency Surveys," HSE Working papers WP BRP 113/STI/2020, National Research University Higher School of Economics.
  65. G. Bruno & L. Crosilla & P. Margani, 2019. "Inspecting the Relationship Between Business Confidence and Industrial Production: Evidence on Italian Survey Data," Journal of Business Cycle Research, Springer;Centre for International Research on Economic Tendency Surveys (CIRET), vol. 15(1), pages 1-24, April.
  66. Caperna, Giulio & Colagrossi, Marco & Geraci, Andrea & Mazzarella, Gianluca, 2022. "A babel of web-searches: Googling unemployment during the pandemic," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 74(C).
  67. Oscar Claveria & Enric Monte & Salvador Torra, 2021. "“Nowcasting and forecasting GDP growth with machine-learning sentiment indicators”," AQR Working Papers 202101, University of Barcelona, Regional Quantitative Analysis Group, revised Feb 2021.
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