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Understanding the Size of the Government Spending Multiplier: It's in the Sign

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Cited by:

  1. Boysen-Hogrefe, Jens & Groll, Dominik & Hoffmann, Timo & Jannsen, Nils & Kooths, Stefan & Schröder, Christian, 2025. "Deutsche Wirtschaft im Sommer 2025: Talsohle erreicht, Erholungssignale verdichten sich [German Economy in Summer 2025: Signs of recovery as economy bottoms out]," Kieler Konjunkturberichte 125, Kiel Institute for the World Economy.
  2. , & Istrefi, Klodiana & Meier, Matthias, 2023. "Identification of Systematic Monetary Policy," CEPR Discussion Papers 17999, Centre for Economic Policy Research.
  3. Andersen, Torben M. & Sørensen, Allan, 2023. "The interdependencies between the private and public sectors in open economies," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 160(C).
  4. Alberto Alesina & Gualtiero Azzalini & Carlo Favero & Francesco Giavazzi & Armando Miano, 2018. "Is it the “How” or the “When” that Matters in Fiscal Adjustments?," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 66(1), pages 144-188, March.
  5. Brignone, Davide & Gambetti, Luca & Ricci, Martino, 2026. "Geopolitical risk shocks: When size matters," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 188(C).
  6. Luca Brugnolini, 2018. "About Local Projection Impulse Response Function Reliability," CEIS Research Paper 440, Tor Vergata University, CEIS, revised 09 Jun 2018.
  7. Tovar Jalles, João & Park, Donghyun & Qureshi, Irfan, 2024. "Public and Private Investment as Catalysts for Growth: An analysis of emerging markets and developing economies with a focus on Asia," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 148(C).
  8. Yasuharu Iwata & Hirokuni IIboshi, 2023. "The Nexus between Public Debt and the Government Spending Multiplier: Fiscal Adjustments Matter," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 85(4), pages 830-858, August.
  9. Biolsi, Christopher, 2017. "Nonlinear effects of fiscal policy over the business cycle," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 78(C), pages 54-87.
  10. João Tovar Jalles & Donghyun Park & Irfan Qureshi, 2024. "Public versus Private Investment Multipliers in Emerging Market and Developing Economies: Cross-Country Analysis with a Focus on Asia," ADB Economics Working Paper Series 737, Asian Development Bank.
  11. van der Wielen, Wouter, 2020. "The macroeconomic effects of tax changes: Evidence using real-time data for the European Union," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 90(C), pages 302-321.
  12. Cem Çebi & K.Azim Özdemir, 2021. "Cyclical variation of the fiscal multiplier in Turkey," Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 57(2), pages 495-509, January.
  13. Wataru Miyamoto & Thuy Lan Nguyen & Dmitry Sergeyev, 2023. "How Oil Shocks Propagate: Evidence on the Monetary Policy Channel," Working Paper Series 2024-06, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
  14. Mr. Tidiane Kinda & Andras Lengyel & Kaustubh Chahande, 2022. "Fiscal Multipliers During Pandemics," IMF Working Papers 2022/149, International Monetary Fund.
  15. Stefano Fasani & Mirela Miescu & Lorenza Rossi, 2026. "Nonlinearities With Deanchored Inflation Expectations," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 67(3), pages 977-996, August.
  16. Choi, Sangyup & Shin, Junhyeok, 2023. "Household indebtedness and the macroeconomic effects of tax changes," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 209(C), pages 22-52.
  17. Tomohide Mineyama, 2024. "Downward Nominal Wage Rigidity and Determinacy of Equilibrium," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 56(1), pages 305-316, February.
  18. Bouakez, Hafedh & Rachedi, Omar & Santoro, Emiliano, 2025. "The sectoral origins of heterogeneous spending multipliers," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 248(C).
  19. Nadav Ben Zeev & Valerie A. Ramey & Sarah Zubairy, 2023. "Do Government Spending Multipliers Depend on the Sign of the Shock?," AEA Papers and Proceedings, American Economic Association, vol. 113, pages 382-387, May.
  20. Daniel Riera-Crichton & Pilar Ruiz Orrico & Guillermo Javier Vuletin, 2024. "From Fiscal Cyclicality to Fiscal Stress : The Role of Asymmetric Public Consumption Rigidities in Emerging Markets," Policy Research Working Paper Series 10984, The World Bank.
  21. Kim, Hyeongwoo & Shao, Peng & Zhang, Shuwei, 2023. "Policy coordination and the effectiveness of fiscal stimulus," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 75(C).
  22. Jamil Sayeed & Deen Islam, 2025. "International Transmission of Fiscal News Shock: Evidence from Defense Spending," Defence and Peace Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 36(1), pages 126-140, January.
  23. Alberto Alesina & Carlo Favero & Francesco Giavazzi, 2019. "Effects of Austerity: Expenditure- and Tax-Based Approaches," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 33(2), pages 141-162, Spring.
  24. Komarek, Timothy M. & Butts, Kyle & Wagner, Gary A., 2022. "Government Contracting, Labor Intensity, and the Local Effects of Fiscal Consolidation: Evidence from the Budget Control Act of 2011," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 132(C).
  25. IIBOSHI, Hirokuni & IWATA, Yasuharu, 2023. "The Nexus between Public Debt and the Government Spending Multiplier: Fiscal Adjustments Matter," MPRA Paper 116347, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  26. Diniz, André, 2016. "Effects of fiscal consolidations in Latin America," Textos para discussão 423, FGV EESP - Escola de Economia de São Paulo, Fundação Getulio Vargas (Brazil).
  27. Boysen-Hogrefe, Jens & Gern, Klaus-Jürgen & Groll, Dominik & Hoffmann, Timo & Jannsen, Nils & Kooths, Stefan & Krohn, Johanna & Liu, Wan-Hsin & Reents, Jan & Schröder, Christian, 2025. "Mittelfristprojektion im Frühjahr 2025: Finanzpolitik überdehnt die Wachstumskräfte," Kieler Konjunkturberichte 123, Kiel Institute for the World Economy.
  28. James Cloyne & Òscar Jordà & Alan M. Taylor, 2023. "State-Dependent Local Projections: Understanding Impulse Response Heterogeneity," NBER Working Papers 30971, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  29. George Kapetanios & Panagiotis Koutroumpis & Christopher Tsoukis & Ekaterina Glebkina, 2026. "Expansionary and Contractionary Fiscal Multipliers in the United States," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 31(2), pages 2144-2159, April.
  30. Inoue, Atsushi & Rossi, Barbara & Wang, Yiru, 2024. "Local projections in unstable environments," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 244(2).
  31. Timo Wollmershäuser & Silvia Delrio & Marcell Göttert & Christian Grimme & Jochen Güntner & Carla Krolage & Stefan Lautenbacher & Robert Lehmann & Sebastian Link & Wolfgang Nierhaus & Magnus Reif & Ra, 2018. "ifo Konjunkturprognose Sommer 2018: Gewitterwolken am deutschen Konjunkturhimmel," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 71(12), pages 33-87, June.
  32. Patel, Nikhil & Peralta-Alva, Adrian, 2025. "High public debts: Are shocks or discretionary fiscal policy to blame?," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 158(C).
  33. Alloza, Mario & Burriel, Pablo & Pérez, Javier J., 2019. "Fiscal policies in the euro area: Revisiting the size of spillovers," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 61(C), pages 1-1.
  34. Boysen-Hogrefe, Jens & Groll, Dominik & Hoffmann, Timo & Jannsen, Nils & Kooths, Stefan & Schröder, Christian, 2025. "German Economy in Summer 2025: Signs of recovery as economy bottoms out," Kiel Institute Economic Outlook 125, Kiel Institute for the World Economy.
  35. Brinca, Pedro & Faria-e-Castro, Miguel & Ferreira, Miguel H. & Holter, Hans A. & Nóbrega, Valter, 2025. "The nonlinear effects of fiscal policy," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 252(C).
  36. Amat Adarov & Ugo Panizza, 2024. "Public Investment Quality and its Implications for Sovereign Risk and Debt Sustainability," IHEID Working Papers 12-2024, Economics Section, The Graduate Institute of International Studies.
  37. Jochen Mankart & Romanos Priftis & Rigas Oikonomou, 2022. "The long and short of financing government spending," Working Paper Research 418, National Bank of Belgium.
  38. Alexander Doser & Ricardo Nunes & Nikhil Rao & Viacheslav Sheremirov, 2023. "Inflation expectations and nonlinearities in the Phillips curve," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 38(4), pages 453-471, June.
  39. Komarek, Timothy M. & Wagner, Gary A., 2020. "The distributional effects of job loss from fiscal consolidation: Evidence from the Budget Control Act of 2011," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 196(C).
  40. Yoon Joo Jo & Sarah Zubairy, 2025. "State-Dependent Government Spending Multipliers: Downward Nominal Wage Rigidity and Sources of Business Cycle Fluctuations," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 17(1), pages 379-413, January.
  41. Gazzani, Andrea & Herrera, Vicente & Vicondoa, Alejandro, 2026. "The asymmetric effects of commodity price shocks in emerging economies," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 183(C).
  42. Hussain, Syed M. & Liu, Lin, 2023. "Macroeconomic effects of government spending shocks: New narrative evidence from Canada," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 75(C).
  43. Rabia Rafique & Asad Nisar & Syed Sadaqat Ali Shah, 2024. "Testing the effects of fiscal policy shocks on output growth in recession and expansion: empirical evidence from developing countries," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 57(3), pages 1-26, June.
  44. Räsänen, Johannes & Mäkelä, Erik, 2021. "The effect of government spending on local economies during an economic downturn," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 134(C).
  45. Maria Elkhdari & Moez Souissi & Mr. Andrew Jewell, 2018. "Empirical Estimation of Fiscal Multipliers in MENA Oil-Exporting Countries with an Application to Algeria," IMF Working Papers 2018/124, International Monetary Fund.
  46. Syed Sadaqat Ali Shah & Muhammad Asim Afridi, 2023. "Cyclical variation of fiscal multipliers in Caucasus and Central Asia economies: an empirical evidence," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 56(6), pages 4531-4563, December.
  47. Cardi, Olivier & Restout, Romain & Claeys, Peter, 2020. "Imperfect mobility of labor across sectors and fiscal transmission," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 111(C).
  48. Robert Gmeiner, 2026. "Does the U.S. Federal Deficit Respond More to Revenues, Expenses, or GDP Growth? A Time-Varying Coefficient Analysis," Public Finance Review, , vol. 54(1), pages 3-39, January.
  49. Carmignani, Fabrizio, 2022. "The electoral fiscal multiplier," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 76(C), pages 938-945.
  50. Mario Alloza & Jesús Gonzalo & Carlos Sanz, 2025. "Dynamic Effects of Persistent Shocks," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 40(4), pages 380-394, June.
  51. Damiano Di Francesco & Omar Pietro Carnevale, 2025. "Are Hysteresis Effects Nonlinear?," LEM Papers Series 2025/32, Laboratory of Economics and Management (LEM), Sant'Anna School of Advanced Studies, Pisa, Italy.
  52. Adarov, Amat & Panizza, Ugo, 2026. "Public investment quality and sovereign risk," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 161(C).
  53. Albuquerque, Bruno & Green, Georgina, 2023. "Financial concerns and the marginal propensity to consume in COVID times: Evidence from UK survey data," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 78(C).
  54. Fiuratti, Federico Ivan & Nikolova, Desislava Enikova & Pennings, Steven Michael & Schiffbauer, Marc Tobias, 2024. "Are Regional Fiscal Multipliers on EU Structural and Investment Fund Spending Large ? A Reassessment of the Evidence," Policy Research Working Paper Series 10658, The World Bank.
  55. Liu, Siming, 2022. "Government spending during sudden stop crises," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 135(C).
  56. J r my Boccanfuso, 2022. "Consumption Response Heterogeneity and Dynamics with an Inattention Region," Working Papers wp1172, Dipartimento Scienze Economiche, Universita' di Bologna.
  57. Auerbach, Alan & Gorodnichenko, Yuriy & McCrory, Peter B. & Murphy, Daniel, 2022. "Fiscal multipliers in the COVID19 recession," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 126(C).
  58. Hwang, Sunju, 2026. "Asymmetric effects of personal income tax changes on economic activity: Increases, cuts, and for whom," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 185(C).
  59. Jing Cynthia Wu & Yinxi Xie, 2025. "Unconventional Monetary and Fiscal Policy," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 56, April.
  60. Miescu, Mirela & Mumtaz, Haroon & Theodoridis, Konstantinos, 2024. "Non-linear Dynamics of Oil Supply News Shocks," Cardiff Economics Working Papers E2024/18, Cardiff University, Cardiff Business School, Economics Section.
  61. Michael Pfarrhofer & Anna Stelzer, 2026. "Are there asymmetries in euro area monetary policy? (Michael Pfarrhofer, Anna Stelzer)," Working Papers 276, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank).
  62. Alpino, Matteo & Asatryan, Zareh & Blesse, Sebastian & Wehrhöfer, Nils, 2022. "Austerity and distributional policy," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 131(C), pages 112-127.
  63. Rella, Giacomo, 2025. "Time-varying interactions between monetary and housing credit policy," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 86(C).
  64. Zhang, Yunhan & Liu, Zhixin & Jin, Hao, 2025. "The domestic and spillover effects of fiscal consolidation: The role of fiscal instruments, exchange rate regimes, and capital controls," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 99(C).
  65. Hazell, Jonathon & Taska, Bledi, 2023. "Downward Rigidity in the Wage for New Hires," IZA Discussion Papers 16512, IZA Network @ LISER.
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