IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/jmacro/v78y2023ics0164070423000630.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Financial concerns and the marginal propensity to consume in COVID times: Evidence from UK survey data

Author

Listed:
  • Albuquerque, Bruno
  • Green, Georgina

Abstract

We study how household concerns about their future financial situation may affect the marginal propensity to consume (MPC) during the COVID-19 pandemic. We use a representative survey of UK households to compute the MPC from a hypothetical transfer of £500. We find that household expectations play a key role in determining differences in MPCs across households: households that are concerned about not being able to make ends meet have a 20% higher MPC than other households. Our findings suggest that policies targeted at vulnerable and financially distressed households may prove more effective in stimulating demand than providing stimulus payments to all households.

Suggested Citation

  • Albuquerque, Bruno & Green, Georgina, 2023. "Financial concerns and the marginal propensity to consume in COVID times: Evidence from UK survey data," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 78(C).
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:jmacro:v:78:y:2023:i:c:s0164070423000630
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jmacro.2023.103563
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0164070423000630
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only

    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.jmacro.2023.103563?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version below or search for a different version of it.

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Jappelli, Tullio & Christelis, Dimitris & Georgarakos, Dimitris & Kenny, Geoff, 2020. "The Covid-19 Crisis and Consumption: Survey Evidence from Six EU Countries," CEPR Discussion Papers 15525, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    2. Claudia R. Sahm & Matthew D. Shapiro & Joel Slemrod, 2010. "Household Response to the 2008 Tax Rebate: Survey Evidence and Aggregate Implications," NBER Chapters, in: Tax Policy and the Economy, Volume 24, pages 69-110, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    3. Arna Olafsson & Michaela Pagel, 2018. "The Liquid Hand-to-Mouth: Evidence from Personal Finance Management Software," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 31(11), pages 4398-4446.
    4. Olivier Coibion & Dimitris Georgarakos & Yuriy Gorodnichenko & Geoff Kenny & Michael Weber, 2024. "The Effect of Macroeconomic Uncertainty on Household Spending," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 114(3), pages 645-677, March.
    5. Jonathan A. Parker & Nicholas S. Souleles, 2019. "Reported Effects versus Revealed-Preference Estimates: Evidence from the Propensity to Spend Tax Rebates," American Economic Review: Insights, American Economic Association, vol. 1(3), pages 273-290, December.
    6. Brian Baugh & Itzhak Ben-David & Hoonsuk Park & Jonathan A. Parker, 2021. "Asymmetric Consumption Smoothing," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 111(1), pages 192-230, January.
    7. John Y. Campbell & N. Gregory Mankiw, 1989. "Consumption, Income, and Interest Rates: Reinterpreting the Time Series Evidence," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 1989, Volume 4, pages 185-246, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    8. Mark Aguiar & Corina Boar & Mark Bils, 2019. "Who Are the Hand-to-Mouth?," 2019 Meeting Papers 525, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    9. Agnes Kovacs & May Rostom & Philip Bunn, 2018. "Consumption Response to Aggregate Shocks and the Role of Leverage," Discussion Papers 1820, Centre for Macroeconomics (CFM).
    10. Andreas Fuster & Greg Kaplan & Basit Zafar, 2021. "What Would You Do with $500? Spending Responses to Gains, Losses, News, and Loans [The Spending and Debt Response to Minimum Wage Hikes]," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 88(4), pages 1760-1795.
    11. Daniel Kahneman & Amos Tversky, 2013. "Prospect Theory: An Analysis of Decision Under Risk," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Leonard C MacLean & William T Ziemba (ed.), HANDBOOK OF THE FUNDAMENTALS OF FINANCIAL DECISION MAKING Part I, chapter 6, pages 99-127, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    12. Olivier Armantier & Leo Goldman & Gizem Koşar & Wilbert Van der Klaauw, 2021. "An Update on How Households Are Using Stimulus Checks," Liberty Street Economics 20210407, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
    13. Matthew D. Shapiro & Joel Slemrod, 2009. "Did the 2008 Tax Rebates Stimulate Spending?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 99(2), pages 374-379, May.
    14. Olivier Coibion & Yuriy Gorodnichenko & Michael Weber, 2020. "How Did U.S. Consumers Use Their Stimulus Payments?," Working Papers 2020-109, Becker Friedman Institute for Research In Economics.
    15. Natalie Cox & Peter Ganong & Pascal Noel & Joseph Vavra & Arlene Wong & Diana Farrell & Fiona Greig & Erica Deadman, 2020. "Initial Impacts of the Pandemic on Consumer Behavior: Evidence from Linked Income, Spending, and Savings Data," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 51(2 (Summer), pages 35-82.
    16. Thomas Crossley & Paul Fisher & Peter Levell & Hamish Low, 2020. "MPCs through COVID: spending, saving and private transfers," IFS Working Papers W20/35, Institute for Fiscal Studies.
    17. Surico, Paolo & Andreolli, Michele, 2021. "Less is More: Consumer Spending and the Size of Economic Stimulus Payments," CEPR Discussion Papers 15918, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    18. Milkman, Katherine L. & Beshears, John, 2009. "Mental accounting and small windfalls: Evidence from an online grocer," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 71(2), pages 384-394, August.
    19. Rosen Valchev & Cosmin Ilut, 2017. "Economic Agents as Imperfect Problem Solvers," 2017 Meeting Papers 1285, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    20. Scott R. Baker & Robert A Farrokhnia & Steffen Meyer & Michaela Pagel & Constantine Yannelis, 2023. "Income, Liquidity, and the Consumption Response to the 2020 Economic Stimulus Payments," Review of Finance, European Finance Association, vol. 27(6), pages 2271-2304.
    21. Jesse M. Shapiro, 2013. "Fungibility and Consumer Choice: Evidence from Commodity Price Shocks," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 128(4), pages 1449-1498.
    22. Bunn, Philip & Le Roux, Jeanne & Reinold, Kate & Surico, Paolo, 2018. "The consumption response to positive and negative income shocks," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 96(C), pages 1-15.
    23. Kanishka Misra & Paolo Surico, 2014. "Consumption, Income Changes, and Heterogeneity: Evidence from Two Fiscal Stimulus Programs," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 6(4), pages 84-106, October.
    24. Duxbury, Darren & Keasey, Kevin & Zhang, Hao & Chow, Shue Loong, 2005. "Mental accounting and decision making: Evidence under reverse conditions where money is spent for time saved," Journal of Economic Psychology, Elsevier, vol. 26(4), pages 567-580, August.
    25. Scott Ross Baker & Contantine Yannelis, 2017. "Income Changes and Consumption: Evidence from the 2013 Federal Government Shutdown," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 23, pages 99-124, January.
    26. Martin S. Eichenbaum & Miguel Godinho de Matos & Francisco Lima & Sergio Rebelo & Mathias Trabandt, 2020. "Expectations, Infections, and Economic Activity," NBER Working Papers 27988, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    27. Joseph Vavra, 2021. "Tracking the Pandemic in Real Time: Administrative Micro Data in Business Cycles Enters the Spotlight," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 35(3), pages 47-66, Summer.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Victoria Baudisch & Matthias Neuenkirch, 2023. "Costly, but (Relatively) Ineffective? An Assessment of Germany’s Temporary VAT Rate Reduction During the Covid-19 Pandemic," Research Papers in Economics 2023-04, University of Trier, Department of Economics.
    2. Gert Peersman & Joris Wauters, 2022. "Heterogeneous household responses to energy price shocks," Working Paper Research 416, National Bank of Belgium.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Bernard, René, 2023. "Mental accounting and the marginal propensity to consume," Discussion Papers 13/2023, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    2. Bernard, René, 2022. "Mental Accounting and the Marginal Propensity to Consume," VfS Annual Conference 2022 (Basel): Big Data in Economics 264186, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    3. Choi, Kyoung Jin & Jeon, Junkee & Koo, Hyeng Keun, 2022. "Intertemporal preference with loss aversion: Consumption and risk-attitude," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 200(C).
    4. Albuquerque, Bruno & Varadi, Alexandra, 2022. "Consumption effects of mortgage payment," Bank of England working papers 963, Bank of England.
    5. Giovanni L. Violante & Greg Kaplan, 2022. "The Marginal Propensity to Consume in Heterogeneous Agent Models," Annual Review of Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 14(1), pages 747-775, August.
    6. Anantha Divakaruni & Peter Zimmerman, 2021. "Uncovering Retail Trading in Bitcoin: The Impact of COVID-19 Stimulus Checks," Working Papers 21-13, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.
    7. Edmund Crawley & Andreas Kuchler, 2020. "Consumption Heterogeneity: Micro Drivers and Macro Implications," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2020-005, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    8. Anna Sokolova, 2023. "Marginal Propensity to Consume and Unemployment: a Meta-analysis," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 51, pages 813-846, December.
    9. Daniel Lewis & Davide Melcangi & Laura Pilossoph, 2019. "Latent Heterogeneity in the Marginal Propensity to Consume," 2019 Meeting Papers 519, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    10. Giovanni Immordino & Tullio Jappelli & Tommaso Oliviero & Alberto Zazzaro, 2022. "Fear of COVID‐19 contagion and consumption: Evidence from a survey of Italian households," Health Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 31(3), pages 496-507, March.
    11. Michael Boutros, 2022. "Windfall Income Shocks with Finite Planning Horizons," Staff Working Papers 22-40, Bank of Canada.
    12. Georgarakos, Dimitris & Kenny, Geoff, 2022. "Household spending and fiscal support during the COVID-19 pandemic: Insights from a new consumer survey," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 129(S), pages 1-14.
    13. Bui, Dzung & Dräger, Lena & Hayo, Bernd & Nghiem, Giang, 2022. "The Marginal Propensity to Consume During the COVID-19 Pandemic: Evidence from Thailand and Vietnam," Hannover Economic Papers (HEP) dp-695, Leibniz Universität Hannover, Wirtschaftswissenschaftliche Fakultät.
    14. J r my Boccanfuso, 2022. "Consumption Response Heterogeneity and Dynamics with an Inattention Region," Working Papers wp1172, Dipartimento Scienze Economiche, Universita' di Bologna.
    15. Kubota, So & Onishi, Koichiro & Toyama, Yuta, 2021. "Consumption responses to COVID-19 payments: Evidence from a natural experiment and bank account data," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 188(C), pages 1-17.
    16. Crossley, Thomas F. & Fisher, Paul & Levell, Peter & Low, Hamish, 2023. "Stimulus payments and private transfers," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 222(C).
    17. Peter Ganong & Pascal Noel, 2019. "Consumer Spending during Unemployment: Positive and Normative Implications," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 109(7), pages 2383-2424, July.
    18. Gizem Koşar & Davide Melcangi & Laura Pilossoph & David Wiczer, 2023. "Stimulus through Insurance: The Marginal Propensity to Repay Debt," Staff Reports 1065, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
    19. María Pía Olivero & Mikheil Dvalishvili, 2023. "What do fiscal stimulus packages mean for household debt?," Contemporary Economic Policy, Western Economic Association International, vol. 41(2), pages 282-299, April.
    20. Nygaard, Vegard M. & Sørensen, Bent E. & Wang, Fan, 2022. "Optimal allocations to heterogeneous agents with an application to stimulus checks," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 138(C).

    More about this item

    Keywords

    COVID-19; Marginal propensity to consume; Survey data; Household behaviour; Expectations; Financial concerns; Fiscal policy;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • D12 - Microeconomics - - Household Behavior - - - Consumer Economics: Empirical Analysis
    • E21 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Consumption; Saving; Wealth
    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy; Modern Monetary Theory
    • G51 - Financial Economics - - Household Finance - - - Household Savings, Borrowing, Debt, and Wealth
    • H31 - Public Economics - - Fiscal Policies and Behavior of Economic Agents - - - Household

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:jmacro:v:78:y:2023:i:c:s0164070423000630. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/622617 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.