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The Past, Present, and Future of Macroeconomic Forecasting

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Cited by:

  1. Fu, Zhonghao & Hong, Yongmiao & Su, Liangjun & Wang, Xia, 2023. "Specification tests for time-varying coefficient models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 235(2), pages 720-744.
  2. Slanicay Martin, 2014. "Some Notes on Historical, Theoretical, and Empirical Background of DSGE Models," Review of Economic Perspectives, Sciendo, vol. 14(2), pages 145-164, June.
  3. Adnan Haider Bukhari & Safdar Ullah Khan, 2008. "A Small Open Economy DSGE Model for Pakistan," The Pakistan Development Review, Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, vol. 47(4), pages 963-1008.
  4. Mihaela Bratu (Simionescu), 2013. "How to Improve the SPF Forecasts?," Acta Universitatis Danubius. OEconomica, Danubius University of Galati, issue 9(2), pages 153-165, April.
  5. Afshin Amiraslany & Hari S. Luitel & Gerry J. Mahar, 2019. "Structural Breaks, Biased Estimations, and Forecast Errors in a GDP Series of Canada versus the United States," International Advances in Economic Research, Springer;International Atlantic Economic Society, vol. 25(2), pages 235-244, May.
  6. Fildes, Robert & Stekler, Herman, 2002. "The state of macroeconomic forecasting," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 24(4), pages 435-468, December.
  7. Hendry, David F. & Mizon, Grayham E., 2001. "Reformulating empirical macro-econometric modelling," Discussion Paper Series In Economics And Econometrics 104, Economics Division, School of Social Sciences, University of Southampton.
  8. Keck, Alexander & Raubold, Alexander, 2006. "Forecasting trade," WTO Staff Working Papers ERSD-2006-05, World Trade Organization (WTO), Economic Research and Statistics Division.
  9. KAMKOUM, Arnaud Cedric, 2023. "The Federal Reserve’s Response to the Global Financial Crisis and its Effects: An Interrupted Time-Series Analysis of the Impact of its Quantitative Easing Programs," Thesis Commons d7pvg, Center for Open Science.
  10. Hendry, David F. & Clements, Michael P., 2003. "Economic forecasting: some lessons from recent research," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 20(2), pages 301-329, March.
  11. Stekler, H.O., 2007. "The future of macroeconomic forecasting: Understanding the forecasting process," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 23(2), pages 237-248.
  12. Valadkhani, Abbas, 2004. "History of macroeconometric modelling: lessons from past experience," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 26(2), pages 265-281, February.
  13. José Luis Torres Chacon, 2015. "Introduction to Dynamic Macroeconomic General Equilibrium Models," Vernon Press Titles in Economics, Vernon Art and Science Inc, edition 2, number 54.
  14. Barakchian , Seyed Mahdi, 2012. "Implications of Cointegration for Forecasting: A Review and an Empirical Analysis," Journal of Money and Economy, Monetary and Banking Research Institute, Central Bank of the Islamic Republic of Iran, vol. 7(1), pages 87-118, October.
  15. Michael Klien & Andrea Kunnert, 2014. "Baubewilligungen für Wohneinheiten in Österreich. Prognose 2014 und 2015," WIFO Studies, WIFO, number 58602.
  16. Karamé, Frédéric & Patureau, Lise & Sopraseuth, Thepthida, 2008. "Limited participation and exchange rate dynamics: Does theory meet the data?," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 32(4), pages 1041-1087, April.
  17. Thomas R. Cook & Aaron Smalter Hall, 2017. "Macroeconomic Indicator Forecasting with Deep Neural Networks," Research Working Paper RWP 17-11, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City.
  18. Allen, P. Geoffrey & Morzuch, Bernard J., 2006. "Twenty-five years of progress, problems, and conflicting evidence in econometric forecasting. What about the next 25 years?," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 22(3), pages 475-492.
  19. Andrea Kunnert, 2013. "Baubewilligungen für Wohneinheiten in Österreich: Prognose 2012/13 und regionale Entwicklung 2006/2011. Teilbericht 2," WIFO Studies, WIFO, number 67110.
  20. Michael Klien & Andrea Kunnert, 2018. "Baubewilligungen für neue Wohneinheiten in Österreich. Prognose Sommer 2018 und regionale Entwicklung 2012/2017," WIFO Studies, WIFO, number 62399.
  21. Gonzalo Fernández-de-Córdoba & José Torres, 2011. "Forecasting the Spanish economy with an augmented VAR–DSGE model," SERIEs: Journal of the Spanish Economic Association, Springer;Spanish Economic Association, vol. 2(3), pages 379-399, September.
  22. BRATU SIMIONESCU, Mihaela, 2012. "Two Quantitative Forecasting Methods For Macroeconomic Indicators In Czech Republic," Annals of Spiru Haret University, Economic Series, Universitatea Spiru Haret, vol. 3(1), pages 71-87.
  23. Viviana Fernández, 2006. "Forecasting crude oil and natural gas spot prices by classification methods," Documentos de Trabajo 229, Centro de Economía Aplicada, Universidad de Chile.
  24. Heilemann, Ullrich & Stekler, H. O., 2003. "Has the accuracy of German macroeconomic forecasts improved?," Technical Reports 2003,31, Technische Universität Dortmund, Sonderforschungsbereich 475: Komplexitätsreduktion in multivariaten Datenstrukturen.
  25. Thorvardur Tjörvi Ólafsson, 2006. "The New Keynesian Phillips Curve: In Search of Improvements and Adaptation to the Open Economy," Economics wp31_tjorvi, Department of Economics, Central bank of Iceland.
  26. Francis X. Diebold & Lee E. Ohanian & Jeremy Berkowitz, 1998. "Dynamic Equilibrium Economies: A Framework for Comparing Models and Data," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 65(3), pages 433-451.
  27. Skrypnik, Dmitriy, 2016. "A Macroeconomic Model of the Russian Economy," MPRA Paper 93506, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  28. Michael Klien & Andrea Kunnert, 2015. "Baubewilligungen für neue Wohneinheiten in Österreich. Prognose 2015/16," WIFO Studies, WIFO, number 65641.
  29. Yunmi Kim & Lijuan Huo & Tae-Hwan Kim, 2020. "Dealing with Markov-Switching Parameters in Quantile Regression Models," Working papers 2020rwp-166, Yonsei University, Yonsei Economics Research Institute.
  30. Franses, Ph.H.B.F., 2003. "Do we make better forecasts these days? A survey amongst academics," Econometric Institute Research Papers EI 2003-06, Erasmus University Rotterdam, Erasmus School of Economics (ESE), Econometric Institute.
  31. Panagiotelis, Anastasios & Athanasopoulos, George & Hyndman, Rob J. & Jiang, Bin & Vahid, Farshid, 2019. "Macroeconomic forecasting for Australia using a large number of predictors," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 35(2), pages 616-633.
  32. Michael Klien & Andrea Kunnert, 2017. "Baubewilligungen für neue Wohneinheiten in Österreich. Prognose Sommer 2017 und regionale Entwicklung 2011/2016," WIFO Studies, WIFO, number 65636.
  33. Schanne, N. & Wapler, R. & Weyh, A., 2010. "Regional unemployment forecasts with spatial interdependencies," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 26(4), pages 908-926, October.
  34. Tursoy, Turgut, 2013. "Structural Modelling for North Cyprus’ Economic Growth," MPRA Paper 98519, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  35. Banik, Nilanjan & Biswas, Basudeb, 2012. "The curious case of Indian agriculture," MPRA Paper 38634, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  36. Willem J.H. van Groenendaal, 2011. "Energy Model and Policy Advice: The Effect of Model Choice," Chapters, in: Raymond J.G.M. Florax & Henri L.F. de Groot & Peter Mulder (ed.), Improving Energy Efficiency through Technology, chapter 11, Edward Elgar Publishing.
  37. Viviana Fernandez, 2008. "Traditional versus novel forecasting techniques: how much do we gain?," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 27(7), pages 637-648.
  38. Michael Klien & Andrea Kunnert, 2015. "Baubewilligungen für neue Wohneinheiten in Österreich. Prognose 2015/16 und regionale Entwicklung 2009/2014," WIFO Studies, WIFO, number 58605.
  39. Benchimol, Jonathan & Fourçans, André, 2017. "Money And Monetary Policy In The Eurozone: An Empirical Analysis During Crises," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 21(3), pages 677-707, April.
  40. Fabio Bacchini & Cristina Brandimarte & Piero Crivelli & Roberta De Santis & Marco Fioramanti & Alessandro Girardi & Roberto Golinelli & Cecilia Jona-Lasinio & Massimo Mancini & Carmine Pappalardo & D, 2013. "Building the core of the Istat system of models for forecasting the Italian economy: MeMo-It," Rivista di statistica ufficiale, ISTAT - Italian National Institute of Statistics - (Rome, ITALY), vol. 15(1), pages 17-45.
  41. Croushore, D., 2002. "Comments on 'The state of macroeconomic forecasting'," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 24(4), pages 483-489, December.
  42. V. Pandit, 2000. "Macroeconometric Policy Modeling for India: A Review of Some Analytical Issues," Working papers 74, Centre for Development Economics, Delhi School of Economics.
  43. Heilemann, Ullrich & Stekler, Herman, 2007. "Introduction to "The future of macroeconomic forecasting"," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 23(2), pages 159-165.
  44. KAMKOUM, Arnaud Cedric, 2023. "The Federal Reserve’s Response to the Global Financial Crisis and Its Long-Term Impact: An Interrupted Time-Series Natural Experimental Analysis," OSF Preprints 53qbm, Center for Open Science.
  45. Valadkhani, Abbas, 2005. "Macroeconometric Modelling: Approaches and Experiences in Developing Countries," Economics Working Papers wp05-10, School of Economics, University of Wollongong, NSW, Australia.
  46. Nicholson, William B. & Matteson, David S. & Bien, Jacob, 2017. "VARX-L: Structured regularization for large vector autoregressions with exogenous variables," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 33(3), pages 627-651.
  47. Olkhov, Victor, 2016. "On Economic Space notion," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 47(C), pages 372-381.
  48. Dan S. Rickman, 2010. "Modern Macroeconomics And Regional Economic Modeling," Journal of Regional Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 50(1), pages 23-41, February.
  49. Dieter Pennerstorfer & Andrea Kunnert & Peter Huber, 2014. "Baubewilligungen für Wohneinheiten in Österreich. Prognose 2014 und 2015 und regionale Entwicklung 2008 bis 2013," WIFO Studies, WIFO, number 58601.
  50. López, Ana M., 2016. "El papel de la información económica como generador de conocimiento en el proceso de predicción: comparaciones empíricas del crecimiento del PIB regional /The Role of Economic Information as a Generat," Estudios de Economia Aplicada, Estudios de Economia Aplicada, vol. 34, pages 543-572, Agosto.
  51. Andrea Kunnert, 2011. "Prognose der Baubewilligungen für Wohneinheiten in Österreich 2009 bis 2011," WIFO Studies, WIFO, number 41257.
  52. Andrea Kunnert, 2013. "Baubewilligungen für neue Wohneinheiten in Österreich. Prognose 2013/14 (Teilbericht 1)," WIFO Studies, WIFO, number 58599.
  53. Fernandez, Viviana, 2007. "Wavelet- and SVM-based forecasts: An analysis of the U.S. metal and materials manufacturing industry," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 32(1-2), pages 80-89.
  54. Michael Klien & Andrea Kunnert, 2016. "Baubewilligungen für neue Wohneinheiten in Österreich. Prognose Sommer 2016 und regionale Entwicklung 2010/2015," WIFO Studies, WIFO, number 65639.
  55. repec:lan:wpaper:539557 is not listed on IDEAS
  56. Michael Klien & Andrea Kunnert, 2015. "Baubewilligungen für neue Wohneinheiten in Österreich. Prognose 2014 bis 2016," WIFO Studies, WIFO, number 58604.
  57. Gerit Vogt, 2009. "Konjunkturprognose in Deutschland. Ein Beitrag zur Prognose der gesamtwirtschaftlichen Entwicklung auf Bundes- und Länderebene," ifo Beiträge zur Wirtschaftsforschung, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, number 36.
  58. Andrea Kunnert, 2013. "Prognose der Baubewilligungen für Wohneinheiten in Österreich 2013 und 2014. Teilbericht 4," WIFO Studies, WIFO, number 67111.
  59. Michael Klien & Andrea Kunnert, 2017. "Baubewilligungen für neue Wohneinheiten in Österreich. Prognose Herbst 2017," WIFO Studies, WIFO, number 65635.
  60. Martinez-Martin Jaime & Morris Richard & Onorante Luca & Piersanti Fabio Massimo, 2024. "Merging Structural and Reduced-Form Models for Forecasting," The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, De Gruyter, vol. 24(1), pages 399-437, January.
  61. Gnidchenko, Andrey, 2011. "Моделирование Технологических И Институциональных Эффектов В Макроэкономическом Прогнозировании [Technological and Institutional Effects Modeling in Macroeconomic Forecasting]," MPRA Paper 35484, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised May 2011.
  62. Valadkhani, A., 2005. "Macroeconomic Modelling: Approaches and Experiences in Development Countries," Applied Econometrics and International Development, Euro-American Association of Economic Development, vol. 5(1).
  63. Charles G. Renfro, 2009. "The Practice of Econometric Theory," Advanced Studies in Theoretical and Applied Econometrics, Springer, number 978-3-540-75571-5, July-Dece.
  64. Dufrénot, Gilles & Jawadi, Fredj, 2013. "Computational tools in econometric modeling for macroeconomics and finance," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 34(C), pages 1-4.
  65. Paul Pichler, 2007. "Forecasting with estimated dynamic stochastic general equilibrium models: The role of nonlinearities," Vienna Economics Papers vie0702, University of Vienna, Department of Economics.
  66. Michael Klien & Andrea Kunnert, 2016. "Baubewilligungen für neue Wohneinheiten in Österreich. Prognose Herbst 2016," WIFO Studies, WIFO, number 65638.
  67. Hanson, Kenneth, 2010. "The Food Assistance National Input-Output Multiplier (FANIOM) Model and Stimulus Effects of SNAP," Economic Research Report 262247, United States Department of Agriculture, Economic Research Service.
  68. Frédéric Karamé & Lise Patureau & Thepthida Sopraseuth, 2002. "Can We Beat the Random Walk Forecasts of Out-of-Sample Exchange Rates? A Structural Approach," Computing in Economics and Finance 2002 233, Society for Computational Economics.
  69. Lasha Kavtaradze & Manouchehr Mokhtari, 2018. "Factor Models And Time†Varying Parameter Framework For Forecasting Exchange Rates And Inflation: A Survey," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 32(2), pages 302-334, April.
  70. Javier Andrés & Fernando Restoy, 2007. "Macroeconomic modelling in EMU: how relevant is the change in regime?," Working Papers 0718, Banco de España.
  71. Morck, Randall & Yeung, Bernard, 2011. "Economics, History, and Causation," Business History Review, Cambridge University Press, vol. 85(1), pages 39-63, April.
  72. Daniel F. Waggoner & Tao Zha, 1999. "Conditional Forecasts In Dynamic Multivariate Models," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 81(4), pages 639-651, November.
  73. Michael Klien & Andrea Kunnert, 2014. "Baubewilligungen für neue Wohneinheiten in Österreich. Prognose 2014 und 2015," WIFO Studies, WIFO, number 58603.
  74. J. Knoben & M. Kerkhofs & J. Graafland, 2006. "Evaluation of Dutch Election Programs. The Impact of Parameter Uncertainty," Review of Business and Economic Literature, KU Leuven, Faculty of Economics and Business (FEB), Review of Business and Economic Literature, vol. 0(1), pages 47-74.
  75. V. Pandit, 2008. "Structural Modeling under Challenge," Working Papers id:1622, eSocialSciences.
  76. Hendry, David F. & Mizon, Grayham E., 2001. "Reformulating empirical macro-econometric modelling," Discussion Paper Series In Economics And Econometrics 0104, Economics Division, School of Social Sciences, University of Southampton.
  77. Marco Del Negro & Frank Schorfheide, 2004. "Priors from General Equilibrium Models for VARS," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 45(2), pages 643-673, May.
  78. Valadkhani, Abbas, 2006. "Macroeconometric Modelling in an Oil-Exporting Country: The case of Iran," MPRA Paper 50389, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  79. repec:lan:wpaper:470 is not listed on IDEAS
  80. Christian Glocker & Serguei Kaniovski, 2022. "Macroeconometric forecasting using a cluster of dynamic factor models," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 63(1), pages 43-91, July.
  81. Michael Klien & Andrea Kunnert, 2017. "Baubewilligungen für neue Wohneinheiten in Österreich. Prognose Winter 2017," WIFO Studies, WIFO, number 62400.
  82. Warne, Anders & Coenen, Günter & Christoffel, Kai, 2010. "Forecasting with DSGE models," Working Paper Series 1185, European Central Bank.
  83. Francis X. Diebold & Glenn D. Rudebusch, 2001. "Five questions about business cycles," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, pages 1-15.
  84. Julio J. Rotemberg, 1999. "A Heuristic Method for Extracting Smooth Trends from Economic Time Series," NBER Working Papers 7439, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  85. José Antonio Gibanel Salazar, 2014. "Economic models: comparative analysis of their adjustment and prediction capacities," Contribuciones a la Economía, Servicios Académicos Intercontinentales SL, issue 2014-05, November.
  86. V. Pandit, 2001. "Structural Modelling Under Challenge," Working papers 98, Centre for Development Economics, Delhi School of Economics.
  87. Tao Zha, 1998. "A dynamic multivariate model for use in formulating policy," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, vol. 83(Q 1), pages 16-29.
  88. John D. Levendis, 2018. "Time Series Econometrics," Springer Texts in Business and Economics, Springer, number 978-3-319-98282-3, April.
  89. Stefano Siviero & Daniele Terlizzese, 2008. "Macroeconomic Forecasting: Debunking a Few Old Wives' Tales," Journal of Business Cycle Measurement and Analysis, OECD Publishing, Centre for International Research on Economic Tendency Surveys, vol. 2007(3), pages 287-316.
  90. Mihaela Bratu, 2012. "A Strategy to Improve the Survey of Professional Forecasters (SPF) Predictions Using Bias-Corrected-Accelerated (BCA) Bootstrap Forecast Intervals," International Journal of Synergy and Research, ToKnowPress, vol. 1(2), pages 45-59.
  91. repec:lan:wpaper:425 is not listed on IDEAS
  92. repec:lan:wpaper:413 is not listed on IDEAS
  93. Martínez-Martin, Jaime & Morris, Richard & Onorante, Luca & Piersanti, Fabio M., 2019. "Merging structural and reduced-form models for forecasting: opening the DSGE-VAR box," Working Paper Series 2335, European Central Bank.
  94. V. Pandit, 2009. "Macroeconometric Policy Modeling for India: A Review of Some Analytical Issues," Working Papers id:1955, eSocialSciences.
  95. D. Tutberidze & D. Japaridze, 2017. "Macroeconomic Forecasting Using Bayesian Vector Autoregressive Approach," Вестник Киевского национального университета имени Тараса Шевченко. Экономика., Socionet;Киевский национальный университет имени Тараса Шевченко, vol. 2(191), pages 42-49.
  96. Barrie, Mohamed Samba & Jackson, Emerson Abraham, 2022. "Impact of Technological Shock on the Sierra Leone Economy: A Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium (DSGE) Approach," MPRA Paper 113636, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 10 Jun 2022.
  97. Andrea Kunnert, 2013. "Baubewilligungen für Wohneinheiten in Österreich: Prognose 2012/2014 und regionale Entwicklung 2006/2011," WIFO Studies, WIFO, number 46678.
  98. Andrea Kunnert, 2012. "Prognose der Wohnbaubewilligungen für Wohneinheiten in Österreich 2012 und 2013. Teilbericht 1," WIFO Studies, WIFO, number 67109.
  99. Julia Bachtrögler & Michael Klien & Andrea Kunnert, 2018. "Baubewilligungen für neue Wohneinheiten in Österreich. Prognose Winter 2018," WIFO Studies, WIFO, number 62398.
  100. Katharina Hampel & Marcus Kunz & Norbert Schanne & Ruediger Wapler & Antje Weyh, 2006. "Regional Unemployment Forecasting Using Structural Component Models With Spatial Autocorrelation," ERSA conference papers ersa06p196, European Regional Science Association.
  101. José Luis Torres Chacon, 2015. "Introduction to Dynamic Macroeconomic General Equilibrium Models [Second Edition, Paperback]," Vernon Press Titles in Economics, Vernon Art and Science Inc, edition 2, number 44.
  102. Dieter Pennerstorfer & Andrea Kunnert & Peter Huber, 2014. "Baubewilligungen für neue Wohneinheiten in Österreich. Prognose 2013/2015 – Teilbericht 2," WIFO Studies, WIFO, number 58600.
  103. Fang, Yue, 2003. "Forecasting combination and encompassing tests," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 19(1), pages 87-94.
  104. Diebold, Francis X., 2001. "Econometrics: Retrospect and prospect," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 100(1), pages 73-75, January.
  105. Скрыпник Д.В., 2016. "Макроэкономическая Модель Российской Экономики," Журнал Экономика и математические методы (ЭММ), Центральный Экономико-Математический Институт (ЦЭМИ), vol. 52(3), pages 92-113, июль.
  106. Michael Klien & Andrea Kunnert, 2016. "Baubewilligungen für neue Wohneinheiten in Österreich. Prognose Winter 2016," WIFO Studies, WIFO, number 65637.
  107. Michael Klien & Andrea Kunnert, 2016. "Baubewilligungen für neue Wohneinheiten in Österreich. Prognose Frühjahr 2016," WIFO Studies, WIFO, number 65640.
  108. Piotr Białowolski & Tomasz Kuszewski & Bartosz Witkowski, 2012. "Macroeconomic Forecasts in Models with Bayesian Averaging of Classical Estimates," Contemporary Economics, University of Economics and Human Sciences in Warsaw., vol. 6(1), March.
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