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Evaluation of Dutch election programs: The impact of parameter uncertainty

  • Knoben, J.
  • Kerkhofs, M.
  • Graafland, J.J.

Shortly before the national elections in the Netherlands, the Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis (CPB) evaluates the economic effects of the policy proposals in election programs. This paper investigates the sensitivity of this analysis to the uncertainty of parameter estimates in the economic models that are used. For this purpose, a Monte Carlo analysis of five election programs is performed, using a core version of one of the CPB models. We find that the range of projected outcomes is surprisingly small. Nonetheless, caution remains needed, especially when the estimated effects of different parties are roughly similar.

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Paper provided by University Library of Munich, Germany in its series MPRA Paper with number 20773.

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Date of creation: 2004
Date of revision:
Publication status: Published in Tijdschrift voor Economie en Management 51.1(2006): pp. 47-72
Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:20773
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  1. Bovenberg, A.L. & Graafland, J.J. & de Mooij, R.A., 2000. "Tax reform and the Dutch labour market : An applied general equilibrium approach," Other publications TiSEM a22f887a-ce1a-4aa2-ad01-6, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
  2. Donders, Jan & Graafland, Johan, 1998. "CPB models and employment policy in the Netherlands," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 15(3), pages 341-356, July.
  3. Draper, D.A.G., 2000. "Towards an econometric model for the Netherlands : Explaining unemployment," Other publications TiSEM 8d6f0572-d552-4ca2-9df3-6, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
  4. Graafland, J.J. & Huizinga, F.H., 1998. "Taxes and benefits in a non-linear wage equation," MPRA Paper 21076, University Library of Munich, Germany.
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