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Evaluation of Dutch Election Programs. The Impact of Parameter Uncertainty

  • J. Knoben
  • M. Kerkhofs
  • J. Graafland

Shortly before the national elections in the Netherlands, the Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis (CPB) evaluates the economic effects of the policy proposals in election programs. This paper investigates the sensitivity of this analysis to the uncertainty of parameter estimates in the economic models that are used. For this purpose, a Monte Carlo analysis of five election programs is performed, using a core version of one of the CPB models. It can be concluded that the range of projected outcomes is surprisingly small. Nonetheless, caution remains needed, especially when the estimated effects of different parties are roughly similar.

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File URL: http://www.econ.kuleuven.be/tem/jaargangen/2001-2010/2006/TEM%202006-1/TEM_2006-1_03_Knoben.pdf
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Article provided by Katholieke Universiteit Leuven, Faculteit Economie en Bedrijfswetenschappen in its journal Review of Business and Economics.

Volume (Year): LI (2006)
Issue (Month): 1 ()
Pages: 47-74

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Handle: RePEc:ete:revbec:20060103
Contact details of provider: Postal: Naamsestraat 69, 3000 Leuven
Web page: http://www.econ.kuleuven.be

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  1. Bovenberg, A. Lans & Graafland, Johan J. & de Mooij, Ruud A., 2000. "Tax reform and the Dutch labor market: an applied general equilibrium approach," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 78(1-2), pages 193-214, October.
  2. repec:ner:tilbur:urn:nbn:nl:ui:12-84090 is not listed on IDEAS
  3. Draper, D.A.G., 2000. "Towards an econometric model for the Netherlands : Explaining unemployment," Other publications TiSEM 8d6f0572-d552-4ca2-9df3-6, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
  4. Graafland, J.J. & Huizinga, F.H., 1998. "Taxes and benefits in a non-linear wage equation," MPRA Paper 21076, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  5. Donders, Jan & Graafland, Johan, 1998. "CPB models and employment policy in the Netherlands," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 15(3), pages 341-356, July.
  6. repec:ner:tilbur:urn:nbn:nl:ui:12-83974 is not listed on IDEAS
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