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The curious case of Indian agriculture

Author

Listed:
  • Banik, Nilanjan
  • Biswas, Basudeb

Abstract

This paper examines association between the cyclical component of agricultural output and rainfall in India. When the cause of food inflation is because of supply shortage driven by inadequate rainfall and poor irrigation facilities, then a contractionary monetary policy may lead to stagflation. Considering agricultural output and rainfall data from four states in India we find evidence in favor of association.

Suggested Citation

  • Banik, Nilanjan & Biswas, Basudeb, 2012. "The curious case of Indian agriculture," MPRA Paper 38634, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:38634
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    File URL: https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/38634/1/MPRA_paper_38634.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Blanchard, Olivier Jean & Quah, Danny, 1989. "The Dynamic Effects of Aggregate Demand and Supply Disturbances," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 79(4), pages 655-673, September.
    2. Stock, James H & Watson, Mark W, 1988. "Variable Trends in Economic Time Series," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 2(3), pages 147-174, Summer.
    3. Beveridge, Stephen & Nelson, Charles R., 1981. "A new approach to decomposition of economic time series into permanent and transitory components with particular attention to measurement of the `business cycle'," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 7(2), pages 151-174.
    4. Marianne Baxter & Robert G. King, 1999. "Measuring Business Cycles: Approximate Band-Pass Filters For Economic Time Series," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 81(4), pages 575-593, November.
    5. Nelson, Charles R. & Plosser, Charles I., 1982. "Trends and random walks in macroeconmic time series : Some evidence and implications," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 10(2), pages 139-162.
    6. Francis X. Diebold, 1998. "The Past, Present, and Future of Macroeconomic Forecasting," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 12(2), pages 175-192, Spring.
    7. Guay, A & St-Amant, P, 1996. "Do Mechanical Filters Provide a Good Approximation of Business Cycles?," Working Papers-Department of Finance Canada 1996-2, Department of Finance Canada.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

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    Cited by:

    1. Rajesh, Raj & Bharti, Nalin, 2016. "Monsoon Fluctuation And Consumption Expenditure In India," Journal of Central European Green Innovation, Karoly Robert University College, vol. 4(01), pages 1-15.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Agriculture output; Beveridge-Nelson Decomposition; Rainfall; India;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation

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