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The refugee wave to Germany and its impact on crime

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  • Dehos, Fabian T.

Abstract

Does refugee migration cause crime? I address this question drawing on recent refugee migration to Germany during the years 2010 to 2015. Based on administrative data records, I add to the literature by disentangling the direct crime impact of asylum seekers and recognized refugees separately. For the group of asylum seekers, I exploit dispersal policies and locational restrictions and find no impact on crime except for migrationspecific offenses. For the group of recognized refugees, who may endogenously move, I use a shift-share instrument and find a positive association between the share of recognized refugees and the overall crime rate, which is driven by non-violent property crimes and frauds. The empirical results prove robust along several robustness checks and are consistent with predictions of the Becker model.

Suggested Citation

  • Dehos, Fabian T., 2017. "The refugee wave to Germany and its impact on crime," Ruhr Economic Papers 737, RWI - Leibniz-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, Ruhr-University Bochum, TU Dortmund University, University of Duisburg-Essen.
  • Handle: RePEc:zbw:rwirep:737
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    File URL: https://www.econstor.eu/bitstream/10419/175407/1/1014427762.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Eide, Erling & Rubin, Paul H. & Shepherd, Joanna M., 2006. "Economics of Crime," Foundations and Trends(R) in Microeconomics, now publishers, vol. 2(3), pages 205-279, December.
    2. Simone Bertoli, 2010. "Networks, Sorting and Self-selection of Ecuadorian Migrants," Annals of Economics and Statistics, GENES, issue 97-98, pages 261-288.
    3. Piopiunik, Marc & Ruhose, Jens, 2017. "Immigration, regional conditions, and crime: Evidence from an allocation policy in Germany," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 92(C), pages 258-282.
    4. repec:eme:rleczz:s0147-9121(06)26006-0 is not listed on IDEAS
    5. Andreas Steinmayr, 2016. "Exposure to Refugees and Voting for the Far-Right. (Unexpected) Results from Austria," WIFO Working Papers 514, WIFO.
    6. David McKenzie & Hillel Rapoport, 2010. "Self-Selection Patterns in Mexico-U.S. Migration: The Role of Migration Networks," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 92(4), pages 811-821, November.
    7. Gehrsitz, Markus & Ungerer, Martin, 2017. "Jobs, Crime, and Votes: A Short-run Evaluation of the Refugee Crisis in Germany," IZA Discussion Papers 10494, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    8. Patrick Bayer & Randi Hjalmarsson & David Pozen, 2009. "Building Criminal Capital behind Bars: Peer Effects in Juvenile Corrections," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 124(1), pages 105-147.
    9. Brian Bell & Francesco Fasani & Stephen Machin, 2013. "Crime and Immigration: Evidence from Large Immigrant Waves," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 95(4), pages 1278-1290, October.
    10. Thomas Bauer & Gil S. Epstein & Ira N. Gang, 2007. "The Influence of Stocks and Flows on Migrants’ Location Choices," Research in Labor Economics,in: Aspects of Worker Well-Being, volume 26, pages 199-229 Emerald Publishing Ltd.
    11. González, Libertad & Ortega, Francesc, 2011. "How do very open economies adjust to large immigration flows? Evidence from Spanish regions," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 18(1), pages 57-70, January.
    12. repec:bla:blaboo:1557860300 is not listed on IDEAS
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    Cited by:

    1. Masterson, Daniel & Yasenov, Vasil, 2019. "Does Halting Refugee Resettlement Reduce Crime? Evidence from the United States Refugee Ban," IZA Discussion Papers 12551, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).

    More about this item

    Keywords

    refugee migration; crime;

    JEL classification:

    • F22 - International Economics - - International Factor Movements and International Business - - - International Migration
    • K42 - Law and Economics - - Legal Procedure, the Legal System, and Illegal Behavior - - - Illegal Behavior and the Enforcement of Law
    • J15 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Economics of Minorities, Races, Indigenous Peoples, and Immigrants; Non-labor Discrimination

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