Does Refugee Inflow Increase Crime Rates in the United States?

Although refugee resettlement remains a controversial issue, no attempt has yet been made to investigate the relationship between refugee inflow and crime rates in the United States, based on bounds testing approach to cointegration analysis with structural breaks. We argue that the first significant crime drop in the United States occurred prior to the 1990s—from 1980 to 1984—a period that witnessed a decline in refugee inflows following the enactment of the Refugee Act of 1980. We next investigate the sensitivity of total crime rate, violent crime rate, property crime rate and their sub-categories, namely, murder, rape, robbery, aggravated assault, burglary, larceny, and motor vehicle theft to an increase in refugee inflow (% of total population) in the United States, controlling for socioeconomic and demographic factors. The results strongly support the hypothesis that refugee inflow (% of total population) increases crime rates in all ten crime categories under study. The results further suggest that government policies aimed at reducing unemployment rate and income inequality, and an increase in federal expenditures on police force for maintaining public order and safety (% of GDP) will most likely reduce crime rates when there is an increase in refugee inflow (% of total population).