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Unemployment duration in Germany: A comprehensive study with dynamic hazard models and P-Splines

  • Kuhlenkasper, Torben
  • Steinhardt, Max Friedrich

This paper makes use of data from the German socio-economic panel to gain new insights into the determinants of unemployment duration in Germany. Due to substantial differences with respect to labour market outcomes we follow a stratified approach with respect to gender and ethnicity. To analyze unemployment duration comprehensively, dynamic duration time models are used in which covariate effects are allowed to vary smoothly with unemployment duration and others enter the model in an a-priori unspecified functional form. We control for unobserved heterogeneity by following a modern frailty approach. As fitting routine we use penalized spline smoothing effects using available software in R. We demonstrate with state-of-the-art regression models how effects of covariables change, either over duration time or within their range and reveal substantial differences across gender end ethnicities for the German labour market. Among others we find large effects of family characteristics for women and a minor importance of formal qualifications for immigrants.

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Paper provided by Hamburg Institute of International Economics (HWWI) in its series HWWI Research Papers with number 111.

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Date of creation: 2011
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Handle: RePEc:zbw:hwwirp:111
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  1. Steinhardt, Max Friedrich, 2009. "The wage impact of immigration in Germany: New evidence for skill groups and occupations," HWWI Research Papers 1-23, Hamburg Institute of International Economics (HWWI).
  2. Bover, O. & Arellano, M. & Bentolila, S., 1997. "Unemployment Duration, Benefit Duration, and the Business Cycle," Papers 9717, Centro de Estudios Monetarios Y Financieros-.
  3. Gert G. Wagner & Joachim R. Frick & Jürgen Schupp, 2007. "The German Socio-Economic Panel Study (SOEP) – Scope, Evolution and Enhancements," Schmollers Jahrbuch : Journal of Applied Social Science Studies / Zeitschrift für Wirtschafts- und Sozialwissenschaften, Duncker & Humblot, Berlin, vol. 127(1), pages 139-169.
  4. Kaas, Leo & Manger, Christian, 2010. "Ethnic Discrimination in Germany's Labour Market: A Field Experiment," IZA Discussion Papers 4741, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
  5. Kuhlenkasper, Torben & Kauermann, Göran, 2010. "Duration of maternity leave in Germany: A case study of nonparametric hazard models and penalized splines," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 17(3), pages 466-473, June.
  6. Daniel Aaronson & Bhashkar Mazumder & Shani Schechter, 2010. "What is behind the rise in long-term unemployment?," Economic Perspectives, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, issue Q II, pages 28-51.
  7. van den Berg, Gerard J & van der Klaauw, Bas, 2000. "Combining Micro and Macro Unemployment Duration Data," CEPR Discussion Papers 2494, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  8. Steiner, Viktor, 2001. " Unemployment Persistence in the West German Labour Market: Negative Duration Dependence or Sorting?," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 63(1), pages 91-113, February.
  9. Göran Kauermann & Jean D. Opsomer, 2011. "Data-driven selection of the spline dimension in penalized spline regression," Biometrika, Biometrika Trust, vol. 98(1), pages 225-230.
  10. Heckman, James & Singer, Burton, 1984. "A Method for Minimizing the Impact of Distributional Assumptions in Econometric Models for Duration Data," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 52(2), pages 271-320, March.
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