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Optimal public investment, growth, and consumption: Fresh evidence from African countries

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Listed:
  • Kwasi Fosu, A.

    (Institute of Statistical, Social and Economic Research (ISSER), University of Ghana)

  • Getachew, Y.

    (Department of Economics, University of Pretoria)

  • Ziesemer, T.

    (UNU-MERIT)

Abstract

This paper develops a model positing a nonlinear relationship between public investment and growth. The model is then applied to a panel of African countries using nonlinear estimating procedures. The growth-maximizing level of public investment is estimated at about 10 percent of GDP based on System GMM estimation. The paper further runs simulations, obtaining the constant optimal public investment share that maximizes the sum of discounted consumption as between 81 percent and 96 percent of GDP. Compared with the observed end-of-panel mean value of no more than 726 percent, these estimates suggest that there has been significant public under-investment in Africa.

Suggested Citation

  • Kwasi Fosu, A. & Getachew, Y. & Ziesemer, T., 2014. "Optimal public investment, growth, and consumption: Fresh evidence from African countries," MERIT Working Papers 2014-057, United Nations University - Maastricht Economic and Social Research Institute on Innovation and Technology (MERIT).
    • Handle: RePEc:unm:unumer:2014057
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    4. Daniel Gurara & Mr. Kangni R Kpodar & Mr. Andrea F Presbitero & Dawit Tessema, 2020. "On the Capacity to Absorb Public Investment: How Much is Too Much?," IMF Working Papers 2020/048, International Monetary Fund.
    5. Djedje Hermann YOHOU, 2015. "In Search of Fiscal Space in Africa: The Role of the Quality of Government Spending," Working Papers 201527, CERDI.
    6. Thomas H.W. ZIESEMER, 2012. "Worker remittances and government behaviour in the receiving countries," Eastern Journal of European Studies, Centre for European Studies, Alexandru Ioan Cuza University, vol. 3, pages 37-59, December.
    7. Presbitero, Andrea F., 2016. "Too much and too fast? Public investment scaling-up and absorptive capacity," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 120(C), pages 17-31.
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    10. Wang, Chao & Kim, Yul-Seong & Kim, Chi Yeol, 2021. "Causality between logistics infrastructure and economic development in China," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 100(C), pages 49-58.
    11. Rafael Aguirre Unceta, 2018. "Niger : la Quête du Développement dans un Contexte Adverse," Working Papers hal-02046108, HAL.
    12. Gurara, Daniel & Kpodar, Kangni & Presbitero, Andrea F. & Tessema, Dawit, 2021. "On the capacity to absorb public investment: How much is too much?☆," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 145(C).
    13. Thomas H.W. Ziesemer, 2020. "Can we have growth when population is stagnant? Testing linear growth rate formulas of non-scale endogenous growth models," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 52(13), pages 1502-1516, March.
    14. International Monetary Fund, 2012. "Cameroon: Staff Report for the 2012 Article IV Consultation," IMF Staff Country Reports 2012/237, International Monetary Fund.
    15. Fisayo Fagbemi, 2020. "Assessing the Role of Governance in West African Fiscal Performance," The American Economist, Sage Publications, vol. 65(1), pages 97-122, March.
    16. Nur Feriyanto, 2020. "Economic and Tourism Factors Affecting the Real Gross Regional Domestic Product: A Case Study," European Research Studies Journal, European Research Studies Journal, vol. 0(3), pages 736-756.
    17. Issouf Samaké & Ms. Priscilla S Muthoora & Mr. Bruno Versailles, 2013. "Fiscal Sustainability, Public Investment, and Growth in Natural Resource-Rich, Low-Income Countries: The Case of Cameroon," IMF Working Papers 2013/144, International Monetary Fund.
    18. Kwon, Sanguk & Cho, Seong-Hoon & Roberts, Roland Keith & Kim, Taeyoung & Yu, T. Edward, 2015. "Effects of changes in electricity price on electricity demand and resulting effects on manufacturing output," 2015 Annual Meeting, January 31-February 3, 2015, Atlanta, Georgia 196850, Southern Agricultural Economics Association.
    19. Ziesemer, Thomas, 2017. "Testing linear growth rate formulas of non-scale endogenous growth models," MERIT Working Papers 2017-036, United Nations University - Maastricht Economic and Social Research Institute on Innovation and Technology (MERIT).
    20. Michael Mbate, 2013. "Domestic Debt, Private Sector Credit and Economic Growth in Sub-Saharan Africa," African Development Review, African Development Bank, vol. 25(4), pages 434-446.
    21. Hallonsten, Jan Simon & Ziesemer, Thomas, 2016. "A semi-endogenous growth model for developing countries with public factors, imported capital goods, and limited export demand," MERIT Working Papers 2016-004, United Nations University - Maastricht Economic and Social Research Institute on Innovation and Technology (MERIT).
    22. Rafael AGUIRRE UNCETA, 2018. "Niger : la Quête du Développement dans un Contexte Adverse," Working Papers P247, FERDI.
    23. Getachew, Yoseph Y. & Turnovsky, Stephen J., 2015. "Productive government spending and its consequences for the growth–inequality tradeoff," Research in Economics, Elsevier, vol. 69(4), pages 621-640.
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    JEL classification:

    • O11 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Macroeconomic Analyses of Economic Development
    • O41 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - One, Two, and Multisector Growth Models
    • O55 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economywide Country Studies - - - Africa
    • H41 - Public Economics - - Publicly Provided Goods - - - Public Goods

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