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Optimal Public Investment, Growth, And Consumption: Evidence From African Countries

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  • Fosu, Augustin Kwasi
  • Getachew, Yoseph Yilma
  • Ziesemer, Thomas H.W.

Abstract

Abstract How much does public capital matter for economic growth? How large should it be? This paper attempts to answer these questions, taking the case of Sub-Saharan African (SSA) countries. It develops and estimates a model that posits a non-linear relationship between public investment and growth, to determine the growth-maximising public investment GDP share. It empirically also accounts for the crowding-in and crowding-out effects between public and private investment, with equations estimated separately and simultaneously, using System GMM. The paper further runs a simulation and examines the public investment GDP share that maximises consumption. This is estimated to be between 8.4 percent and 11 percent. The results from estimating the growth model are in the middle of this range, which is larger than the observed value of 7.2 percent at the end of the sample period. These outcomes suggest that, on average, there has been public under-investment in Africa, contrary to previous findings.
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  • Fosu, Augustin Kwasi & Getachew, Yoseph Yilma & Ziesemer, Thomas H.W., 2016. "Optimal Public Investment, Growth, And Consumption: Evidence From African Countries," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 20(08), pages 1957-1986, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:cup:macdyn:v:20:y:2016:i:08:p:1957-1986_00
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    1. repec:taf:jpolrf:v:20:y:2017:i:2:p:136-164 is not listed on IDEAS
    2. Naoyuki Yoshino & Umid Abidhadjaev, 2015. "An Impact Evaluation of Investment in Infrastructure : The Case of the Railway Connection in Uzbekistan," Working Papers id:7743, eSocialSciences.
    3. Okey Mawussé Komlagan Nézan, 2016. "Public Expenditure and Private Sector Investment in WAEMU Countries," Research Papers RP_328, African Economic Research Consortium.
    4. Oukhallou, Youssef, 2016. "Analyzing economic growth: what role for public investment?," MPRA Paper 69772, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    5. Thomas H.W. ZIESEMER, 2012. "Worker remittances and government behaviour in the receiving countries," Eastern Journal of European Studies, Centre for European Studies, Alexandru Ioan Cuza University, vol. 3, pages 37-59, December.
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    7. International Monetary Fund, 2012. "Cameroon; Staff Report for the 2012 Article IV Consultation," IMF Staff Country Reports 12/237, International Monetary Fund.
    8. Kwon, Sanguk & Cho, Seong-Hoon & Roberts, Roland Keith & Kim, Taeyoung & Yu, T. Edward, 2015. "Effects of changes in electricity price on electricity demand and resulting effects on manufacturing output," 2015 Annual Meeting, January 31-February 3, 2015, Atlanta, Georgia 196850, Southern Agricultural Economics Association.
    9. Ziesemer, Thomas, 2017. "Testing linear growth rate formulas of non-scale endogenous growth models," MERIT Working Papers 036, United Nations University - Maastricht Economic and Social Research Institute on Innovation and Technology (MERIT).
    10. Djedje Hermann Yohou, 2015. "In Search of Fiscal Space in Africa: The Role of the Quality of Government Spending," Working Papers halshs-01222812, HAL.
    11. Issouf Samaké & Priscilla S Muthoora & Bruno Versailles, 2013. "Fiscal Sustainability, Public Investment, and Growth in Natural Resource-Rich, Low-Income Countries; The Case of Cameroon," IMF Working Papers 13/144, International Monetary Fund.
    12. Michael Mbate, 2013. "Domestic Debt, Private Sector Credit and Economic Growth in Sub-Saharan Africa," African Development Review, African Development Bank, vol. 25(4), pages 434-446.
    13. Hallonsten, Jan Simon & Ziesemer, Thomas, 2016. "A semi-endogenous growth model for developing countries with public factors, imported capital goods, and limited export demand," MERIT Working Papers 004, United Nations University - Maastricht Economic and Social Research Institute on Innovation and Technology (MERIT).
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    JEL classification:

    • H4 - Public Economics - - Publicly Provided Goods

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