Manufacturing and Economic Growth in Developing Countries, 1950-2005
Since the middle of the eighteenth century, manufacturing has functioned as the main engine of economic growth and development. However, in recent research, questions have been raised concerning the continued importance of the manufacturing sector for economic development. This paper reexamines the role of manufacturing as a driver of growth in developing countries in the period 1950-2005. The paper makes use of a newly constructed panel dataset of annual value added shares (in current prices) for manufacturing, industry, agriculture and services for the period 1950-2005. Regression analysis is used to analyse the relationships between sectoral shares and per capita GDP growth for different time periods and different groups of countries. For the total sample, we find a moderate positive impact of manufacturing on growth in line with the engine of growth hypothesis. Splitting our sample into three subperiods, we only find a direct effect of manufacturing on growth for the middle period 1970-1990. We also find interesting interaction effects of manufacturing with education and income gaps. In a comparison of the subperiods, it seems that since 1990, manufacturing is becoming a more difficult route to growth than before.
|Date of creation:||2011|
|Date of revision:|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: P.O. Box 616, 6200 MD Maastricht|
Phone: (31) (0)43 3883875
Fax: (31) (0)43 3216518
Web page: http://www.merit.unu.edu/
More information through EDIRC
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Nehru, Vikram & Swanson, Eric & Dubey, Ashutosh, 1995. "A new database on human capital stock in developing and industrial countries: Sources, methodology, and results," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 46(2), pages 379-401, April.
- Gallup, J.L. & Sachs, J.D. & Mullinger, A., 1999. "Geography and Economic Development," Papers 1, Chicago - Graduate School of Business.
- John Luke Gallup & Jeffrey D. Sachs & Andrew D. Mellinger, 1999. "Geography and Economic Development," International Regional Science Review, SAGE Publishing, vol. 22(2), pages 179-232, August.
- Fiona Tregenna, 2009. "Characterising deindustrialisation: An analysis of changes in manufacturing employment and output internationally," Cambridge Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 33(3), pages 433-466, May.
- Syrquin, Moshe, 1988. "Patterns of structural change," Handbook of Development Economics, in: Hollis Chenery & T.N. Srinivasan (ed.), Handbook of Development Economics, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 7, pages 203-273 Elsevier.
- Robert J. Barro & Jong-Wha Lee, 2010.
"A New Data Set of Educational Attainment in the World, 1950-2010,"
NBER Working Papers
15902, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Barro, Robert J. & Lee, Jong Wha, 2013. "A new data set of educational attainment in the world, 1950–2010," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 104(C), pages 184-198.
- Alan B. Krueger & Mikael Lindahl, 2000.
"Education for Growth: Why and For Whom?,"
NBER Working Papers
7591, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Robert Rowthorn & Ken Coutts, 2004.
"De-Industrialization And The Blance Of Payments In Advanced Economies,"
UNCTAD Discussion Papers
170, United Nations Conference on Trade and Development.
- Robert Rowthorn & Ken Coutts, 2004. "De-industrialisation and the balance of payments in advanced economies," Cambridge Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 28(5), pages 767-790, September.
- Szirmai, Adam, 2009. "Industrialisation as an engine of growth in developing countries," MERIT Working Papers 010, United Nations University - Maastricht Economic and Social Research Institute on Innovation and Technology (MERIT).
- Wolfgang Lutz & Anne Goujon & Samir K.C. & Warren Sanderson, 2007. "Reconstruction of population by age, sex and level of educational attainment of 120 countries for 1970-2000," Vienna Yearbook of Population Research, Vienna Institute of Demography (VID) of the Austrian Academy of Sciences in Vienna, vol. 5(1), pages 193-235.
- Cohen, Daniel & Soto, Marcelo, 2001.
"Growth and Human Capital: Good Data, Good Results,"
CEPR Discussion Papers
3025, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Abramovitz, Moses, 1986. "Catching Up, Forging Ahead, and Falling Behind," The Journal of Economic History, Cambridge University Press, vol. 46(02), pages 385-406, June.
- Jan Fagerberg & Bart Verspagen, 2001.
"Technology-Gaps, Innovation-Diffusion And Transformation: An Evolutionary Interpretation,"
11, Centre for Technology, Innovation and Culture, University of Oslo.
- Fagerberg, Jan & Verspagen, Bart, 2002. "Technology-gaps, innovation-diffusion and transformation: an evolutionary interpretation," Research Policy, Elsevier, vol. 31(8-9), pages 1291-1304, December.
- Xavier Sala-I-Martin, 1997.
"Transfers, Social Safety Nets, and Economic Growth,"
IMF Staff Papers,
Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 44(1), pages 81-102, March.
- Szirmai, Adam, 2012. "Industrialisation as an engine of growth in developing countries, 1950–2005," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 23(4), pages 406-420.
- Szirmai,Adam, 2015.
Cambridge University Press, number 9781107624498.
- Ajit Singh & Sukti Dasgupta, 2005. "Will services be the new engine of economic growth in India?," ESRC Centre for Business Research - Working Papers wp310, ESRC Centre for Business Research.
- Robert J. Barro, 2013.
"Inflation and Economic Growth,"
Annals of Economics and Finance,
Society for AEF, vol. 14(1), pages 121-144, May.
- Fagerberg, Jan, 1994. "Technology and International Differences in Growth Rates," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 32(3), pages 1147-75, September.
- N. F. R. Crafts, 1983. "British Economic Growth, 1700-1831: A Review of the Evidence," Economic History Review, Economic History Society, vol. 36(2), pages 177-199, 05.
- Iscan Talan, 2010. "How Much Can Engel's Law and Baumol's Disease Explain the Rise of Service Employment in the United States?," The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, De Gruyter, vol. 10(1), pages 1-43, September.
- J. A. Hausman & W. E. Taylor, 1980.
"Panel Data and Unobservable Individual Effects,"
255, Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), Department of Economics.
- Hausman, Jerry A & Taylor, William E, 1981. "Panel Data and Unobservable Individual Effects," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 49(6), pages 1377-98, November.
- Hausman, Jerry A. & Taylor, William E., 1981. "Panel data and unobservable individual effects," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 16(1), pages 155-155, May.
- Jeffry Jacob & Thomas Osang, 2007. "Institutions, Geography and Trade: A Panel Data Study," Departmental Working Papers 0706, Southern Methodist University, Department of Economics.
- John Luke Gallup & Jeffrey D. Sachs & Andrew Mellinger, 1999. "Geography and Economic Development," CID Working Papers 1, Center for International Development at Harvard University.
- Cohen, Wesley M & Levinthal, Daniel A, 1989. "Innovation and Learning: The Two Faces of R&D," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 99(397), pages 569-96, September.
- Jan Fagerberg & Bart Verspagen, 2007.
"Innovation, growth and economic development: have the conditions for catch-up changed?,"
International Journal of Technological Learning, Innovation and Development,
Inderscience Enterprises Ltd, vol. 1(1), pages 13-33.
- Jan Fagerberg & Bart Verspagen, 2007. "Innovation, growth and economic development: have the conditions for catch-up changed?," Working Papers Archives 2007001, Centre for Technology, Innovation and Culture, University of Oslo.
- Baltagi, Badi H. & Bresson, Georges & Pirotte, Alain, 2003. "Fixed effects, random effects or Hausman-Taylor?: A pretest estimator," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 79(3), pages 361-369, June.
- Robert Inklaar & Marcel P. Timmer & Bart van Ark, 2008. "Market services productivity across Europe and the US," Economic Policy, CEPR;CES;MSH, vol. 23, pages 139-194, 01.
- Jan Fagerberg & Bart Verspagen, 1999. "'Modern Capitalism' in the 1970s and 1980s," Working Papers Archives 1999002, Centre for Technology, Innovation and Culture, University of Oslo.
- Falvey, Rodney E & Gemmell, Norman, 1996. "Are Services Income-Elastic? Some New Evidence," Review of Income and Wealth, International Association for Research in Income and Wealth, vol. 42(3), pages 257-69, September.
- Guerrieri, Paolo & Meliciani, Valentina, 2005. "Technology and international competitiveness: The interdependence between manufacturing and producer services," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 16(4), pages 489-502, December.
- Park, Se-Hark & Chan, Kenneth S., 1989. "A cross-country input-output analysis of intersectoral relationships between manufacturing and services and their employment implications," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 17(2), pages 199-212, February.
- Chakravarty, Sangeeta & Mitra, Arup, 2009. "Is industry still the engine of growth? An econometric study of the organized sector employment in India," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 31(1), pages 22-35.
- Szirmai, Adam, 2008. "Explaining Success and Failure in Development," MERIT Working Papers 013, United Nations University - Maastricht Economic and Social Research Institute on Innovation and Technology (MERIT).
- Dale W. Jorgenson & Mun S. Ho & Kevin J. Stiroh, 2005. "Productivity, Volume 3: Information Technology and the American Growth Resurgence," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 3, number 0262101114, December.
- Tregenna, Fiona, 2011. "Manufacturing Productivity, Deindustrialization, and Reindustrialization," Working Paper Series UNU-WIDER Research Paper , World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
- Marcel P. Timmer & Gaaitzen J. de Vries, 2009. "Structural change and growth accelerations in Asia and Latin America: a new sectoral data set," Cliometrica, Journal of Historical Economics and Econometric History, Association Française de Cliométrie (AFC), vol. 3(2), pages 165-190, June.
- Rodrik, Dani, 2009. "Growth After the Crisis," CEPR Discussion Papers 7480, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:unm:unumer:2011069. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Ad Notten)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.