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Inflation Targeting, Exchange Rate Pass-Through and 'Fear of Floating'

  • Reginaldo P. Nogueira Jnr

    ()

The paper presents evidence on exchange rate pass-through and the "Fear of Floating" hypothesis before and after Inflation Targeting for a set of developed and emerging market economies. We use a structural VAR model to estimate the effect of depreciations on prices. The results support the view of the previous literature that the pass-through is higher for emerging than for developed economies, and that it has decreased after the adoption of Inflation Targeting. We then use several different methodologies to examine the existence of "Fear of Floating" practices. We observe a drastic reduction in direct foreign exchange market intervention after the adoption of Inflation Targeting. As the exchange rate pass-through still matters for the attainment of the inflation targets, "Fear of Floating" seems to play only a minor role for most economies in our sample.

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File URL: ftp://ftp.ukc.ac.uk/pub/ejr/RePEc/ukc/ukcedp/0605.pdf
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Paper provided by School of Economics, University of Kent in its series Studies in Economics with number 0605.

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Date of creation: Sep 2006
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Handle: RePEc:ukc:ukcedp:0605
Contact details of provider: Postal: School of Economics, University of Kent, Canterbury, Kent, CT2 7NP
Phone: +44 (0)1227 827497
Web page: http://www.kent.ac.uk/economics/

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  1. Fisher, Eric, 1989. "A model of exchange rate pass-through," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 26(1-2), pages 119-137, February.
  2. Frederic S. Mishkin, 2000. "Inflation Targeting in Emerging-Market Countries," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 90(2), pages 105-109, May.
  3. Golinelli, Roberto & Rovelli, Riccardo, 2005. "Monetary policy transmission, interest rate rules and inflation targeting in three transition countries," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 29(1), pages 183-201, January.
  4. Amato, Jeffery D. & Gerlach, Stefan, 2002. "Inflation targeting in emerging market and transition economies: Lessons after a decade," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 46(4-5), pages 781-790, May.
  5. Ilan Goldfajn & Sérgio Ribeiro da Costa Werlang, 2000. "The Pass-through from Depreciation to Inflation: A Panel Study," Working Papers Series 5, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.
  6. Reinhart, Carmen & Calvo, Guillermo, 2002. "Fear of floating," MPRA Paper 14000, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  7. Berg, Andrew & Borensztein, Eduardo & Mauro, Paolo, 2002. "An evaluation of monetary regime options for Latin America," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 13(3), pages 213-235, December.
  8. MINELLA André & DE FREITAS Paulo Springer & GOLDFAJN Ilan & KFOURY MUINHOS Marcelo, . "Inflation Targeting in Brazil: Constructing Credibility under Exchange Rate Volatility," EcoMod2003 330700103, EcoMod.
  9. Frederic S. Mishkin & Klaus Schmidt-Hebbel, 2001. "One decade of inflation targeting in the world : What do we know and what do we need to know?," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 101, Central Bank of Chile.
  10. Olivier Jeanne & Robert P. Flood, 2000. "An Interest Rate Defense of a Fixed Exchange Rate?," IMF Working Papers 00/159, International Monetary Fund.
  11. Laurence Ball, 2000. "Policy Rules and External Shocks," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 82, Central Bank of Chile.
  12. Joel Bogdanski & Alexandre Antonio Tombini & Sérgio Ribeiro da Costa Werlang, 2000. "Implementing Inflation Targeting in Brazil," Working Papers Series 1, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.
  13. Jose Manuel Campa & Linda S. Goldberg, 2002. "Exchange rate pass-through into import prices: a macro or micro phenomenon?," Staff Reports 149, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
  14. Chul Park, Yung & Chung, Chae-Shick & Wang, Yunjong, 2001. "Fear of Floating: Korea's Exchange Rate Policy after the Crisis," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 15(2), pages 225-251, June.
  15. Robert C. Feenstra & Jon D. Kendall, 1994. "Passthrough of Exchange Rates and Purchasing Power Parity," NBER Working Papers 4842, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  16. José Manuel Campa & Linda S. Goldberg, 2005. "Exchange Rate Pass-Through into Import Prices," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 87(4), pages 679-690, November.
  17. Armando Baqueiro & Alejandro Diaz de Leon & Alberto Torres, 2003. "Fear of floating or fear of inflation? The role of the exchange rate pass-through," BIS Papers chapters, in: Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Monetary policy in a changing environment, volume 19, pages 338-354 Bank for International Settlements.
  18. Pierre-Richard Agénor, 2001. "Monetary Policy Under Flexible Exchange Rates: an Introduction to Inflation Targeting," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 124, Central Bank of Chile.
  19. Ricardo Hausmann & Ugo Panizza & Ernesto H. Stein, 2000. "Why Do Countries Float the Way They Float?," Research Department Publications 4205, Inter-American Development Bank, Research Department.
  20. André Minella & Paulo Springer de Freitas & Ilan Goldfajn & Marcelo Kfoury Muinhos, 2003. "Inflation Targeting in Brazil: Constructing Credibility under Exchange Rate Volatility," Working Papers Series 77, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.
  21. Choudhri, Ehsan U. & Hakura, Dalia S., 2006. "Exchange rate pass-through to domestic prices: Does the inflationary environment matter?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 25(4), pages 614-639, June.
  22. Miguel A. Savastano & Paul R. Masson & Sunil Sharma, 1997. "The Scope for Inflation Targeting in Developing Countries," IMF Working Papers 97/130, International Monetary Fund.
  23. Christopher P. Ball & Javier Reyes, 2004. "Inflation targeting or fear of floating in disguise: the case of Mexico," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 9(1), pages 49-69.
  24. Carlos José García & Jorge Enrique Restrepo, 2001. "Price Inflation and Exchange Rate Pass-Through in Chile," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 128, Central Bank of Chile.
  25. Meyer, Laurence H., 2002. "Inflation targets and inflation targeting," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 13(2), pages 147-162, August.
  26. Barry Eichengreen, 2002. "Can Emerging Markets Float? Should They Inflation Target?," Working Papers Series 36, Central Bank of Brazil, Research Department.
  27. Klaus Schmidt-Hebbel & Alejandro Werner, 2002. "Inflation Targeting in Brazil, Chile, and Mexico: Performance, Credibility, and the Exchange Rate," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 171, Central Bank of Chile.
  28. Guillermo A. Calvo & Carmen M. Reinhart, 2000. "Fixing for Your Life," NBER Working Papers 8006, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  29. Pinelopi Koujianou Goldberg & Michael M. Knetter, 1997. "Goods Prices and Exchange Rates: What Have We Learned?," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 35(3), pages 1243-1272, September.
  30. Klein, Michael W., 1990. "Macroeconomic aspects of exchange rate pass-through," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 9(4), pages 376-387, December.
  31. Reginaldo P. Nogueira Jnr, 2006. "Inflation Targeting and the Role of Exchange Rate Pass-through," Studies in Economics 0602, School of Economics, University of Kent.
  32. Dalia Hakura, 2005. "Are Emerging Market Countries Learning to Float?," IMF Working Papers 05/98, International Monetary Fund.
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